比特币（BTC）的价格在市场希望恢复平衡时的价格超过81,000美元

加密货币市场正在寻求重新获得平衡，在明天的美国通货膨胀报告之前，比特币在81,000美元之前弹跳。由Omkar Godbole。

output: The crypto market is showing signs of resilience, with bitcoin recovering above $81,000 ahead of tomorrow’s U.S. inflation report.

输出：加密市场显示出弹性的迹象，在明天的美国通货膨胀报告之前，比特币在81,000美元以上恢复了。

The recovery, largely seen in layer-1 and layer-2 coins as well as gaming tokens from their overnight lows, comes amid indications of "peak fear" on Wall Street, a dynamic typically observed at market bottoms.

恢复在很大程度上是在第1层和第2层硬币中出现的，以及从其过夜低点中的游戏令牌，这表明华尔街“峰值恐惧”的迹象，这是一种动态的，通常在市场底部观察到。

Interestingly, the spread between one- and six-month futures tied to the VIX, Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge, crossed above zero on Monday, signaling a rare positive reading and reflecting expectations for greater volatility in the short-term than six months out. Volmex’s Bitcoin volatility index shows a similar inversion, although that is more common in the crypto market.

有趣的是，周一，华尔街所谓的恐惧量表与VIX相关的一个月和六个月期货之间的蔓延在周一越过零以上，这表明罕见的积极阅读，并反映了短期内对六个月的波动性更大的期望。 Volmex的比特币波动率指数显示出类似的反转，尽管这在加密货币市场中更为常见。

“Is the worst behind us? It’s impossible to say. However, the risk-reward for entering long positions in U.S. stocks is improving. The VIX index for volatility is now significantly inverted, meaning near-term contracts are priced higher than long-term ones. This is an important sign of stress, but it can also indicate extremes in sentiment.” Ilan Solot, senior global market strategist at Marex Solutions, said in an email.

“我们身后最糟糕吗？不可能说。但是，在美国股票中长期职位的风险回报正在改善。 VIX的波动性指数现在已大大倒转，这意味着近期合同的价格高于长期合同。这是压力的重要迹象，但也可以表明情绪中的极端。” Marex Solutions全球高级市场策略师Ilan Solot在一封电子邮件中说。

Meanwhile, bullish positioning in the yen appears stretched, suggesting the haven currency’s rally may soon lose steam, potentially providing relief to risk assets in the process.

同时，日元中的看涨位置似乎延伸了，这表明避风港的集会可能很快就会失去动力，有可能在此过程中减轻风险资产。

The Truflation U.S. Inflation Index, which offers a daily, real-time measurement of inflation based on data from over 30 sources and 13 million price points, has dropped to 1.35%, extending a decline from February’s high of over 2%. This trend hints at the progress on inflation the Federal Reserve is considering before potentially cutting rates.

Truflation US通货膨胀指数根据来自30多个来源和1300万个价格点的数据提供了每日实时的通货膨胀量值，已下降到1.35％，从2月的高点延长了2％以上。这种趋势暗示了通货膨胀的进展，美联储在潜在降低利率之前正在考虑。

On Wednesday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show a month-over-month increase of 0.3% for February. This would be a notable deceleration from January’s concerning 0.5%. A soft reading could validate traders’ expectations for rapid rate cuts starting in June, possibly leading to renewed risk-on sentiment.

周三，劳工统计局预计将显示2月份的月份增长0.3％。这将是一月份的0.5％的显着减速。轻柔的阅读可以验证交易者对6月份开始快速降低的期望，这可能会导致新的风险情绪。

However, it’s crucial to note that Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated the Fed is awaiting clarity on President Trump’s policies before making its next move, suggesting that soft CPI data alone might not be enough.

但是，至关重要的是，杰罗姆·鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）主席表示，在采取下一步行动之前，美联储正在等待特朗普总统的政策，这表明仅软CPI数据可能还不够。

On the other hand, a hotter-than-expected CPI print could derail recovery prospects, potentially setting the stage for a deeper slide in bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Some analysts, like Alex Kuptsikevich, senior market analyst at FxPro, predict a pullback to the $70,000 to $74,000 range.

另一方面，高于预期的CPI印刷可能会使恢复前景脱轨，这有可能为比特币和更广泛的加密货币市场的更深层次滑动奠定基础。 FXPRO的高级市场分析师Alex Kuptsikevich等一些分析师预测，回调了70,000美元至74,000美元。

“A bearish pattern persists on the daily timeframes, indicating a strengthening sell-off after failing to hold above the 200-day moving average. The scenario of a pullback to the $70,000 to $74,000 range still looks most probable.” Kuptsikevich said in an email.

“每日时间范围内的看跌模式一直存在，这表明未能保持超过200天移动平均线后的抛售增强。回调到70,000美元至74,000美元的情况仍然看起来最可能。” Kuptsikevich在一封电子邮件中说。