比特幣（BTC）價格動作燃料劃分長期持有人和短期投機者之間的鴻溝

比特幣的價格行動正在加劇長期持有人和短期投機者之間的鴻溝。隨著恐慌賣家的負擔

Bitcoin’s price action is fueling a divide between long-term holders and short-term speculators. As panic sellers offload their holdings, large investors on Bitfinex are doubling down on leveraged longs, signaling confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

比特幣的價格行動正在加劇長期持有人和短期投機者之間的鴻溝。隨著恐慌賣家的持股量，Bitfinex上的大型投資者正在對槓桿式的渴望增加一倍，這表明對資產的長期潛力的信心。

On-chain data shows speculators suffered over $100 million in realized losses in the past six weeks, according to CryptoQuant. Short-term holders—those who acquired BTC in the last one to three months—were hit hardest, capitulating as Bitcoin corrected 30% from its mid-January peak.

鏈上數據顯示，在過去的六周中，投機者在過去的六周中遭受了超過1億美元的損失。短期持有人 - 在過去的一到三個月中收購了BTC的人 - 受到了最大的命中，隨著比特幣比比特幣從1月中旬的峰校正了30％。

“This represents a reduction in the value of Bitcoin held by this cohort, who are now underwater as many bought at higher prices and are exiting with losses,” CryptoQuant contributor Onchained wrote on Monday.

CryptoQuant撰稿人周一在周一寫道：“這代表了該隊列持有的比特幣價值的降低，他們現在在水下，許多人以較高的價格購買，並因損失而退出。”

The market capitalization of these holdings has now dropped below their realized capitalization, signaling that these investors are actively selling at a loss. This selling pressure could weigh on Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory.

這些持股的市值現在已經下降到其已實現的資本下，這表明這些投資者正在積極出售損失。這種銷售壓力可能會影響比特幣的短期價格軌跡。

At the same time, large investors on Bitfinex are positioning for further gains with leveraged longs. After hitting lows of 30,000 BTC in early March, margin longs have surged by 13,787 BTC to reach 63,787 BTC, marking the highest level since November 2024.

同時，Bitfinex上的大型投資者正在定位，以槓桿率渴望獲得進一步的收益。在3月初達到30,000 BTC的低點之後，保證金的隆起飆升了13,787 BTC，達到63,787 BTC，標誌著自2024年11月以來的最高水平。

This surge in leveraged positions showcases the optimism among institutional traders, who are anticipating a breakout from the recent trading range.

這種槓桿職位的激增展示了機構交易者的樂觀情緒，他們預計最近的交易範圍會突破。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity trends suggests the asset could be poised for significant gains in the coming months.

此外，比特幣與全球流動性趨勢的相關性表明，該資產可以在未來幾個月內獲得可觀的收益。

Pakpakchicken, a pseudonymous trader on X, claims to have identified an 82% correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the global money supply (M2). Historically, BTC has surged when central banks ease monetary policy, increasing liquidity in the market.

X上的化名交易者Pakpakchicken聲稱已經確定了比特幣的價格與全球貨幣供應（M2）之間的82％相關性。從歷史上看，BTC在中央銀行緩解貨幣政策時迅速增加，增加了市場流動性。

“Periods of monetary easing tend to fuel greater investor interest in the asset, increasing its price potential,” the trader noted.

交易員指出：“貨幣寬鬆時期往往會激發投資者對資產的更大利益，從而提高其價格潛力。”

With global recession risks rising, central banks may be forced to expand M2 to stimulate economic growth. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could benefit from a fresh wave of liquidity, potentially pushing its price toward $105,000 in the coming months.

隨著全球衰退風險的增加，中央銀行可能被迫擴大M2以刺激經濟增長。如果這種趨勢的成立，比特幣可能會從新鮮的流動性浪潮中受益，並可能在未來幾個月將其價格推向105,000美元。

However, if Trump’s administration pulls back on crypto support or Saylor faces difficulties selling Strategy’s BTC holdings, it could hamper Bitcoin’s recovery potential.

但是，如果特朗普的政府退縮加密支持或塞勒面臨銷售BTC持有的困難，則可能會阻礙比特幣的恢復潛力。

Finally, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is approaching a key support level at $74,000, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

最終，根據加密分析師Ali Martinez的說法，比特幣的每週圖表的關鍵支持水平為74,000美元。

“Watch $74,000 closely! The weekly chart hints at a potential trend shift if Bitcoin loses this key support.”

“密切觀看$ 74,000！每週圖表暗示，如果比特幣失去了這一關鍵支持，則可能會發生潛在的趨勢。”

If BTC fails to hold this level, it could trigger further liquidations from leveraged traders, amplifying downside risk. Conversely, a strong bounce could reaffirm bullish momentum, setting the stage for a push toward $100,000.

如果BTC無法保持這一水平，它可能會引發槓桿交易者的進一步清算，從而擴大下行風險。相反，強烈的反彈可以重申看漲的勢頭，為邁向100,000美元的舞台奠定了基礎。