比特幣（BTC）價格繼續徘徊在$ 85,000的心理門檻以下

比特幣的價格繼續徘徊在85,000美元的心理門檻以下，在最近的集會後顯示出疲憊的跡象。幕後

Bitcoin’s price continues to hover below the psychological threshold of $85,000, showing signs of exhaustion after its recent rally. Behind the scenes, recent data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode is stirring concerns among market watchers, as it reveals a deepening trend: short-term holders are shouldering significant unrealized losses, an ominous indicator that a bear phase may be silently unfolding.

比特幣的價格繼續徘徊在85,000美元的心理門檻以下，在最近的集會後顯示出疲憊的跡象。在幕後，鏈上分析公司玻璃節的最新數據引起了市場觀察者的關注，因為它揭示了一個加深的趨勢：短期持有人避開了巨大的未實現的損失，這是不祥的指標，表明熊階段可能會默默發展。

On the other hand, Long-Term Holders are still broadly in profit, but as BTC top buyers age into LTH status, loss absorption may rise. Historically, this shift often marked the confirmation of a bear market, though no such regime is evidently unfolding yet.

另一方面，長期持有人仍然廣泛地賺錢，但是隨著BTC頂級買家的年齡升高，吸收損失可能會上升。從歷史上看，這種轉變通常標誌著熊市的確認，儘管這種政權顯然還在發展。

Unrealized losses occur when the market value of an asset drops below the price at which it was acquired, but the asset has not yet been sold. In Bitcoin’s case, this metric is increasingly flashing red for short-term holders—those who acquired BTC within the last few months. Glassnode’s latest figures suggest these investors are now deeply underwater, with many forced to hold at a loss as the market struggles to regain momentum.

當資產的市場價值下降到以下價格時，未實現的損失就會發生，但尚未出售資產。就比特幣而言，該指標越來越多地閃爍著短期持有人的紅色，這些指標在過去幾個月內獲得了BTC。 GlassNode的最新數據表明，這些投資者現在處於深水水下，許多人被迫遭受損失，因為市場努力恢復勢頭。

“The short-term holders, defined as entities holding Bitcoin for less than three months, are currently accumulating a large amount of unrealized losses, now exceeding 150 billion USD,” the firm’s analysts stated in a recent market update.

該公司的分析師在最近的市場更新中說：“短期持有人被定義為持有比特幣的實體，目前正在累積大量未實現的損失，現在超過1500億美元。”

This signals that a considerable portion of the recent buying activity, particularly during the year’s first half, has been wiped out, putting short-term traders in a pessimistic frame of mind.

這表明，最近的購買活動中的相當一部分，尤其是在上半年，已經被消滅了，使短期交易者處於悲觀的心態。

In contrast, long-term holders, who typically maintain an investment horizon of at least six months or longer, are still generally in profit, albeit the margins are narrowing.

相比之下，通常保持至少六個月或更長時間的投資視野的長期持有人通常仍在獲利，儘管利潤率正在縮小。

“Despite the significant unrealized losses being absorbed by short-term holders, the long-term holders are still in aggregate profit, albeit at the lowest levels since early 2023,” added the firm.

該公司補充說：“儘管短期持有人吸收了巨大的未實現損失，但長期持有人仍處於總利潤，儘管自2023年初以來的水平最低。”

However, as the top buyers, responsible for large-scale capital inflows, age into long-term holder status, they are also beginning to shoulder greater unrealized losses.

但是，作為負責大規模資本流入的頂級買家，長期持有人的身份，他們也開始承擔更大的未實現的損失。

“This shift in the flow of unrealized P&L may be a crucial factor to observe, especially given its role in previous market cycles. If the bulk of the market's top buyers age into LTH status with unrealized losses, it could be confirming the persistence of a bear market," the analysts explained.

分析師解釋說：“未實現的損益的這種轉變可能是要觀察到的關鍵因素，尤其是考慮到它在先前的市場週期中的作用。如果市場大部分頂級買家的大部分損失都會帶有未實現的損失，則可以證實熊市的持久性。”

The potential for a deeper bear phase is also being illuminated by other technical patterns. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to break out of a specific resistance level around $85,000, despite several attempts. This persistent failure to pierce through the resistance may be setting the stage for a deeper downturn.

其他技術模式也照亮了更深的熊階段的潛力。值得注意的是，儘管嘗試了幾次嘗試，但比特幣的價格仍在努力淘汰約85,000美元的特定阻力水平。這種持續的失敗在阻力中刺穿可能正在為更深的衰退奠定基礎。

“The price faced rejection at this level three times in November, ultimately returning to lower lows,” said Glassnode. “This repeated failure to break out despite strong attempts might be setting up for a deeper correction.”

Glassnode說：“價格在11月三次面臨拒絕，最終返回低點。” “儘管嘗試進行了強有力的嘗試，但這種反复的未能突破，可能是為了進行更深入的糾正。”

Despite these bleak outlooks, there are still some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Despite the rising unrealized losses, Bitcoin whales and major investment firms have been steadily increasing their positions, suggesting that some institutions might still have confidence in the asset’s long-term fundamentals.

儘管有這些黯淡的前景，但仍然有一些希望的光線。儘管未實現的損失有所增加，但比特幣鯨和主要投資公司一直在穩步提高其頭寸，這表明某些機構可能仍然對資產的長期基本面有信心。

As the market continues to navigate this turbulent phase, the focus will remain on how long-term holders react to the unfolding scenario. If they begin to realize their losses en masse, it could be a defining moment in confirming a more extended bear cycle. Until then, the potential for a sustained recovery remains open.

隨著市場繼續導航這一動盪階段，重點將保持在長期持有人對不斷發展的情況的反應上。如果他們開始大批意識到自己的損失，那可能是確認更擴展的熊週期的決定時刻。在此之前，持續恢復的潛力仍然開放。