比特币（BTC）价格继续徘徊在$ 85,000的心理门槛以下

比特币的价格继续徘徊在85,000美元的心理门槛以下，在最近的集会后显示出疲惫的迹象。幕后

Bitcoin’s price continues to hover below the psychological threshold of $85,000, showing signs of exhaustion after its recent rally. Behind the scenes, recent data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode is stirring concerns among market watchers, as it reveals a deepening trend: short-term holders are shouldering significant unrealized losses, an ominous indicator that a bear phase may be silently unfolding.

比特币的价格继续徘徊在85,000美元的心理门槛以下，在最近的集会后显示出疲惫的迹象。在幕后，链上分析公司玻璃节的最新数据引起了市场观察者的关注，因为它揭示了一个加深的趋势：短期持有人避开了巨大的未实现的损失，这是不祥的指标，表明熊阶段可能会默默发展。

On the other hand, Long-Term Holders are still broadly in profit, but as BTC top buyers age into LTH status, loss absorption may rise. Historically, this shift often marked the confirmation of a bear market, though no such regime is evidently unfolding yet.

另一方面，长期持有人仍然广泛地赚钱，但是随着BTC顶级买家的年龄升高，吸收损失可能会上升。从历史上看，这种转变通常标志着熊市的确认，尽管这种政权显然还在发展。

Unrealized losses occur when the market value of an asset drops below the price at which it was acquired, but the asset has not yet been sold. In Bitcoin’s case, this metric is increasingly flashing red for short-term holders—those who acquired BTC within the last few months. Glassnode’s latest figures suggest these investors are now deeply underwater, with many forced to hold at a loss as the market struggles to regain momentum.

当资产的市场价值下降到以下价格时，未实现的损失就会发生，但尚未出售资产。就比特币而言，该指标越来越多地闪烁着短期持有人的红色，这些指标在过去几个月内获得了BTC。 GlassNode的最新数据表明，这些投资者现在处于深水水下，许多人被迫遭受损失，因为市场努力恢复势头。

“The short-term holders, defined as entities holding Bitcoin for less than three months, are currently accumulating a large amount of unrealized losses, now exceeding 150 billion USD,” the firm’s analysts stated in a recent market update.

该公司的分析师在最近的市场更新中说：“短期持有人被定义为持有比特币的实体，目前正在累积大量未实现的损失，现在超过1500亿美元。”

This signals that a considerable portion of the recent buying activity, particularly during the year’s first half, has been wiped out, putting short-term traders in a pessimistic frame of mind.

这表明，最近的购买活动中的相当一部分，尤其是在上半年，已经被消灭了，使短期交易者处于悲观的心态。

In contrast, long-term holders, who typically maintain an investment horizon of at least six months or longer, are still generally in profit, albeit the margins are narrowing.

相比之下，通常保持至少六个月或更长时间的投资视野的长期持有人通常仍在获利，尽管利润率正在缩小。

“Despite the significant unrealized losses being absorbed by short-term holders, the long-term holders are still in aggregate profit, albeit at the lowest levels since early 2023,” added the firm.

该公司补充说：“尽管短期持有人吸收了巨大的未实现损失，但长期持有人仍处于总利润，尽管自2023年初以来的水平最低。”

However, as the top buyers, responsible for large-scale capital inflows, age into long-term holder status, they are also beginning to shoulder greater unrealized losses.

但是，作为负责大规模资本流入的顶级买家，长期持有人的身份，他们也开始承担更大的未实现的损失。

“This shift in the flow of unrealized P&L may be a crucial factor to observe, especially given its role in previous market cycles. If the bulk of the market's top buyers age into LTH status with unrealized losses, it could be confirming the persistence of a bear market," the analysts explained.

分析师解释说：“未实现的损益的这种转变可能是要观察到的关键因素，尤其是考虑到它在先前的市场周期中的作用。如果市场大部分顶级买家的大部分损失都会带有未实现的损失，则可以证实熊市的持久性。”

The potential for a deeper bear phase is also being illuminated by other technical patterns. Notably, Bitcoin’s price has struggled to break out of a specific resistance level around $85,000, despite several attempts. This persistent failure to pierce through the resistance may be setting the stage for a deeper downturn.

其他技术模式也照亮了更深的熊阶段的潜力。值得注意的是，尽管尝试了几次尝试，但比特币的价格仍在努力淘汰约85,000美元的特定阻力水平。这种持续的失败在阻力中刺穿可能正在为更深的衰退奠定基础。

“The price faced rejection at this level three times in November, ultimately returning to lower lows,” said Glassnode. “This repeated failure to break out despite strong attempts might be setting up for a deeper correction.”

Glassnode说：“价格在11月三次面临拒绝，最终返回低点。” “尽管尝试进行了强有力的尝试，但这种反复的未能突破，可能是为了进行更深入的纠正。”

Despite these bleak outlooks, there are still some glimmers of hope on the horizon. Despite the rising unrealized losses, Bitcoin whales and major investment firms have been steadily increasing their positions, suggesting that some institutions might still have confidence in the asset’s long-term fundamentals.

尽管有这些黯淡的前景，但仍然有一些希望的光线。尽管未实现的损失有所增加，但比特币鲸和主要投资公司一直在稳步提高其头寸，这表明某些机构可能仍然对资产的长期基本面有信心。

As the market continues to navigate this turbulent phase, the focus will remain on how long-term holders react to the unfolding scenario. If they begin to realize their losses en masse, it could be a defining moment in confirming a more extended bear cycle. Until then, the potential for a sustained recovery remains open.

随着市场继续导航这一动荡阶段，重点将保持在长期持有人对不断发展的情况的反应上。如果他们开始大批意识到自己的损失，那可能是确认更扩展的熊周期的决定时刻。在此之前，持续恢复的潜力仍然开放。