比特币（BTC）价格动作燃料划分长期持有人和短期投机者之间的鸿沟

比特币的价格行动正在加剧长期持有人和短期投机者之间的鸿沟。随着恐慌卖家的负担

Bitcoin’s price action is fueling a divide between long-term holders and short-term speculators. As panic sellers offload their holdings, large investors on Bitfinex are doubling down on leveraged longs, signaling confidence in the asset’s long-term potential.

比特币的价格行动正在加剧长期持有人和短期投机者之间的鸿沟。随着恐慌卖家的持股量，Bitfinex上的大型投资者正在对杠杆式的渴望增加一倍，这表明对资产的长期潜力的信心。

On-chain data shows speculators suffered over $100 million in realized losses in the past six weeks, according to CryptoQuant. Short-term holders—those who acquired BTC in the last one to three months—were hit hardest, capitulating as Bitcoin corrected 30% from its mid-January peak.

链上数据显示，在过去的六周中，投机者在过去的六周中遭受了超过1亿美元的损失。短期持有人 - 在过去的一到三个月中收购了BTC的人 - 受到了最大的命中，随着比特币比比特币从1月中旬的峰校正了30％。

“This represents a reduction in the value of Bitcoin held by this cohort, who are now underwater as many bought at higher prices and are exiting with losses,” CryptoQuant contributor Onchained wrote on Monday.

CryptoQuant撰稿人周一在周一写道：“这代表了该队列持有的比特币价值的降低，他们现在在水下，许多人以较高的价格购买，并因损失而退出。”

The market capitalization of these holdings has now dropped below their realized capitalization, signaling that these investors are actively selling at a loss. This selling pressure could weigh on Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory.

这些持股的市值现在已经下降到其已实现的资本下，这表明这些投资者正在积极出售损失。这种销售压力可能会影响比特币的短期价格轨迹。

At the same time, large investors on Bitfinex are positioning for further gains with leveraged longs. After hitting lows of 30,000 BTC in early March, margin longs have surged by 13,787 BTC to reach 63,787 BTC, marking the highest level since November 2024.

同时，Bitfinex上的大型投资者正在定位，以杠杆率渴望获得进一步的收益。在3月初达到30,000 BTC的低点之后，保证金的隆起飙升了13,787 BTC，达到63,787 BTC，标志着自2024年11月以来的最高水平。

This surge in leveraged positions showcases the optimism among institutional traders, who are anticipating a breakout from the recent trading range.

这种杠杆职位的激增展示了机构交易者的乐观情绪，他们预计最近的交易范围会突破。

Moreover, Bitcoin’s correlation with global liquidity trends suggests the asset could be poised for significant gains in the coming months.

此外，比特币与全球流动性趋势的相关性表明，该资产可以在未来几个月内获得可观的收益。

Pakpakchicken, a pseudonymous trader on X, claims to have identified an 82% correlation between Bitcoin’s price and the global money supply (M2). Historically, BTC has surged when central banks ease monetary policy, increasing liquidity in the market.

X上的化名交易者Pakpakchicken声称已经确定了比特币的价格与全球货币供应（M2）之间的82％相关性。从历史上看，BTC在中央银行缓解货币政策时迅速增加，增加了市场流动性。

“Periods of monetary easing tend to fuel greater investor interest in the asset, increasing its price potential,” the trader noted.

交易员指出：“货币宽松时期往往会激发投资者对资产的更大利益，从而提高其价格潜力。”

With global recession risks rising, central banks may be forced to expand M2 to stimulate economic growth. If this trend holds, Bitcoin could benefit from a fresh wave of liquidity, potentially pushing its price toward $105,000 in the coming months.

随着全球衰退风险的增加，中央银行可能被迫扩大M2以刺激经济增长。如果这种趋势的成立，比特币可能会从新鲜的流动性浪潮中受益，并可能在未来几个月将其价格推向105,000美元。

However, if Trump’s administration pulls back on crypto support or Saylor faces difficulties selling Strategy’s BTC holdings, it could hamper Bitcoin’s recovery potential.

但是，如果特朗普的政府退缩加密支持或塞勒面临销售BTC持有的困难，则可能会阻碍比特币的恢复潜力。

Finally, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is approaching a key support level at $74,000, according to crypto analyst Ali Martinez.

最终，根据加密分析师Ali Martinez的说法，比特币的每周图表的关键支持水平为74,000美元。

“Watch $74,000 closely! The weekly chart hints at a potential trend shift if Bitcoin loses this key support.”

“密切观看$ 74,000！每周图表暗示，如果比特币失去了这一关键支持，则可能会发生潜在的趋势。”

If BTC fails to hold this level, it could trigger further liquidations from leveraged traders, amplifying downside risk. Conversely, a strong bounce could reaffirm bullish momentum, setting the stage for a push toward $100,000.

如果BTC无法保持这一水平，它可能会引发杠杆交易者的进一步清算，从而扩大下行风险。相反，强烈的反弹可以重申看涨的势头，为迈向100,000美元的舞台奠定了基础。