比特幣（BTC）選擇權市場趨勢顯示交易者不再像以前那樣熱衷於追逐上漲趨勢

儘管比特幣（BTC）繼續創下歷史新高，但最新的選擇權市場趨勢表明，交易者並沒有像以前那樣熱情地追逐上漲趨勢。

Bitcoin (BTC) price rose above $107,000 on Monday, reaching a new lifetime high and taking the cumulative post-U.S.-election gain to over 50%, CoinDesk data show.

CoinDesk 數據顯示，比特幣 (BTC) 價格週一升至 107,000 美元以上，創下歷史新高，並使美國大選後的累積漲幅超過 50%。

The rally follows President-elect Donald Trump's assurance that the U.S. will build a bitcoin strategic reserve, a move that could help stabilize the cryptocurrency's price during times of market turbulence.

當選總統川普保證美國將建立比特幣戰略儲備，此舉可能有助於在市場動盪時期穩定加密貨幣的價格。

Analysts are expecting the rally to continue next year, with prices ranging between $150K to $200K by the end of the following year.

分析師預計明年漲勢將持續，到年底價格將在 15 萬美元至 20 萬美元之間。

However, the current pricing of options trading on Deribit indicates that traders aren't chasing the rally like they used to, signaling a more cautious outlook for the short term.

然而，Deribit 目前選擇權交易的定價表明，交易者不再像以前那樣追逐漲勢，這表明他們對短期前景更加謹慎。

At press time, the 25-delta risk reversal for options expiring on Friday was negative, indicating the relative richness of put options that provide protection against price drops. Puts expiring on Dec. 27 were trading at a slight premium to calls, while the risk reversals extending to the end of March end expiry demonstrated a call bias of less than three volatility points.

截至發稿時，週五到期期權的 25 Delta 風險反轉為負，表明提供針對價格下跌保護的看跌期權相對豐富。 12 月 27 日到期的看跌期權的交易價格略高於看漲期權，而風險逆轉持續到 3 月底到期，表明看漲期權偏差小於三個波動點。

That starkly contrasts the trend we've observed over the past few weeks, where traders aggressively chased new price peaks, driving short-term and long-term call biases to over four or five volatility points. In fact, short-term risk reversals frequently displayed a stronger call bias than their longer-term counterparts.

這與我們過去幾週觀察到的趨勢形成鮮明對比，交易員積極追逐新的價格峰值，將短期和長期看漲期權偏差推至超過四到五個波動點。事實上，短期風險逆轉經常表現出比長期風險逆轉更強的看漲傾向。

The latest block trades coming through on Deribit, as tracked by Amberdata, also show a bearish lean. The top trade so far today has been a short position in the Dec. 27 expiry call at the $108,000 strike followed by long positions in the $100,000 strike puts expiring on Dec. 27 and Jan. 3.

Amberdata 追蹤的 Deribit 最新大宗交易也顯示出看跌傾向。今天迄今為止最大的交易是12 月27 日到期的看漲期權的空頭頭寸，行使價為108,000 美元，其次是100,000 美元的行使價看跌期權的多頭頭寸，行使價為12 月27 日和1 月3日到期。

The cautious sentiment could be due to concerns that on Wednesday the Federal Reserve will signal fewer or slower rate hikes for 2025 while delivering the widely expected 25 basis points rate cut. Such an outcome could accelerate hardening of the bond yields, strengthening the dollar and denting the case for investing in riskier assets. Perhaps, sophisticated BTC traders are positioning for a correction.

這種謹慎情緒可能是由於擔心週三聯準會將暗示 2025 年升息次數較少或較慢，同時實現普遍預期的 25 個基點降息。這樣的結果可能會加速債券殖利率的走強，使美元走強，並削弱投資風險較高資產的理由。也許，經驗豐富的比特幣交易者正在為回調做好準備。