比特幣（BTC）與短期持有者成本基礎仍有顯著差距

鏈上數據顯示，比特幣短期持有者的實際價格目前為 86,800 美元，這一水平值得關注。

On-chain data shows that the Realized Price of Bitcoin short-term holders (STHs) currently stands at $86,800, making it a level to watch.

鏈上數據顯示，比特幣短期持有者（STH）的實際價格目前為 86,800 美元，值得關注。

Bitcoin Is Still At A Notable Gap From Short-Term Holder Cost Basis

比特幣與短期持有者成本基礎仍有顯著差距

In a new post on Substack, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode discussed the trend in the profit-loss status of Bitcoin (BTC) STHs. The indicator of relevance here is the “Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio,” which keeps track of the ratio between BTC's Market Cap and its Realized Cap.

在 Substack 上的一篇新文章中，鏈上分析公司 Glassnode 討論了比特幣 (BTC) STH 的獲利虧損狀態趨勢。這裡的相關指標是“市值與已實現價值（MVRV）比率”，它追蹤 BTC 市值與其已實現市值之間的比率。

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The “Realized Cap” here refers to an on-chain capitalization model for the cryptocurrency that assumes the ‘real’ value of each token in circulation is the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain.

這裡的「已實現上限」是指加密貨幣的鏈上資本化模型，該模型假設流通中的每個代幣的「實際」價值是其最後在區塊鏈上交易的價格。

Since the last transfer of any coin is likely to correspond to the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time could be considered as its current cost basis. Thus, the Realized Cap is nothing, but the sum of the capital that the investors as a whole have used to purchase the cryptocurrency.

由於任何硬幣的最後一次轉移可能對應於它最後一次易手，因此當時的價格可以被視為其當前的成本基礎。因此，已實現上限什麼都不是，而是投資者作為一個整體用於購買加密貨幣的資本總和。

On the other hand, the Market Cap represents the value that the holders are carrying right now. As the MVRV Ratio compares these two models, its value tells us about the profit-loss situation of the network.

另一方面，市值代表持有者目前所持有的價值。當MVRV比率比較這兩個模型時，它的值告訴我們網路的盈虧情況。

The traditional MVRV Ratio measures this for the entire market, but the version of the metric that's of interest in the current topic is that specifically for the STHs, investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days.

傳統的 MVRV 比率衡量整個市場的這一點，但當前主題感興趣的指標版本是專門針對 STH（在過去 155 天內購買代幣的投資者）的。

Below is the chart shared by the analytics firm that shows the trend in the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio over the past year or so.

以下是分析公司分享的圖表，顯示了過去一年左右比特幣 STH MVRV 比率的趨勢。

Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio has shown to be above the 1 mark recently, indicating profits on average for the group As displayed in the graph, the Bitcoin STH MVRV Ratio spiked to notable levels above the 1 mark when the recent leg up in the BTC rally took place. The indicator being above this value implies the Market Cap of the group is greater than its Realized Cap, and so, the average member is in a state of profit.

比特幣 STH MVRV 比率最近已高於 1 大關，顯示該組的平均利潤 如圖所示，當 BTC 反彈近期上漲時，比特幣 STH MVRV 比率飆升至 1 大關上方的顯著水平。該指標高於該值意味著該集團的市值大於已實現市值，因此，平均成員處於獲利狀態。

Recently, as the decline in the cryptocurrency’s price has occurred, the indicator has naturally gone down. Its value still remains above the 1 level, though, suggesting profits held by the cohort still outweigh the losses.

最近，隨著加密貨幣價格的下跌，該指標自然也下降了。不過，其價值仍維持在 1 水準之上，顯示該群體持有的利潤仍大於損失。

At present, the STH MVRV Ratio is sitting at 1.08, which corresponds to the group holding unrealized gains of around 8%. Historically, the STHs have shown to represent the fickle-minded side of the market that easily participates in selloffs, so their being in large profits has tended to be a danger sign for the price.

目前，STH MVRV 比率為 1.08，相當於該集團持有約 8% 的未實現收益。從歷史上看，STH 已被證明代表了市場變化無常的一面，很容易參與拋售，因此它們的巨額利潤往往是價格的危險信號。

The cohort is no longer making significant profits after the drawdown, but perhaps a cooldown may need to happen if the risk of profit-taking has to go away. A metric that makes it convenient to track when this could happen is the “Realized Price,” which is derived from the Realized Cap by dividing it with the total number of tokens in circulation.

資金回撤後，該群體不再賺取可觀利潤，但如果獲利了結的風險必須消失，也許可能需要一段時間的冷卻。可以方便地追蹤何時發生這種情況的一個指標是“已實現價格”，它是通過將已實現上限除以流通中的代幣總數而得出的。

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From the chart, it's visible that the STH Realized Price has a value of $86,800 right now, which means the group will be just breaking-even on its investment if Bitcoin falls to this level.

從圖表中可以看出，STH 目前的實際價格為 86,800 美元，這意味著如果比特幣跌至這一水平，該集團的投資將剛剛實現收支平衡。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

Bitcoin briefly fell under the $92,000 level yesterday, but the coin has found a small rebound as its price is now trading around $94,500.

昨天，比特幣一度跌破 92,000 美元的水平，但比特幣已經小幅反彈，目前價格約為 94,500 美元。