主要見解：自3月以來，大型比特幣（BTC）持有人吸收了100,000多個BTC

自3月以來，大型比特幣（BTC）持有人已經吸收了100,000多個BTC，這無見零售需求疲軟和網絡活動停滯。

Key Insights

關鍵見解

* Large Bitcoin (BTC) holders have absorbed over 100,000 BTC since March, even as weak retail demand and stagnant network activity continue.

*自3月以來，大型比特幣（BTC）持有人已經吸收了100,000多個BTC，即使零售需求疲軟，網絡活動仍在繼續。

* Data from Caueconomy reveals that wallets linked to institutional players have ramped up accumulation despite persistent uncertainty in the market.

*來自Cauecormony的數據表明，儘管市場上的不確定性持續不確定性，但與機構參與者相關的錢包仍在增加積累。

* This trend highlights a clear divide in market behavior, with smaller investors remaining cautious while large participants are aprovechar lower prices to reduce their average acquisition cost.

*這一趨勢強調了市場行為的明顯鴻溝，較小的投資者保持謹慎，而大型參與者則是較低的價格，以降低其平均收購成本。

Whale Reserves Grow While Retail Interest Slows

鯨魚儲備在零售利息放慢時增長

Between December and February, whale wallets remained mostly inactive. However, that trend reversed in March. Since then, large BTC holders have been accumulating, adding more than 100,000 BTC to their reserves.

在12月至2月之間，鯨魚錢包仍然大部分不活躍。但是，這種趨勢在三月扭轉。從那時起，大型BTC持有人一直在積累，在其儲備中增加了100,000多個BTC。

These whales, often referred to as “smart money,” seem unfazed by recent price swings. They continue to buy in zones typically marked by institutional interest. In contrast, retail traders have pulled back, and overall on-chain activity shows no major uptick.

這些鯨魚通常被稱為“聰明的錢”，似乎對最近的價格波動並不感到震驚。他們繼續購買通常以機構利益為標誌的區域。相比之下，零售商人退縮了，整體上的鏈活動沒有顯示出重大的上升。

“Despite low activity on the Bitcoin network and weak retail demand, whale reserves have continued to grow,” Caueconomy wrote on X. The statement highlights long-term conviction among larger market players, especially during times of declining prices.

Cauecomany在X上寫道：“儘管比特幣網絡上的活動較低和零售需求疲軟，但鯨魚儲量仍在繼續增長。”聲明重點介紹了較大的市場參與者之間的長期定罪，尤其是在價格下降的時候。

This divergence is now shaping short-term market sentiment and long-term positioning, with whales potentially preparing for a future exit during the next rally.

現在，這種差異正在塑造短期市場的情緒和長期定位，鯨魚可能在下一次集會期間為未來退出做準備。

Technicals Signal Bounce Potential As Shorts Cluster Around $90K

技術彈性彈跳潛力，短褲聚集在$ 90K左右

Traders tracking price behavior are divided, but several patterns suggest a bounce may be underway.

交易者跟踪價格行為是分配的，但是幾種模式表明可能正在進行反彈。

Merlijn, a pseudonymous trader on X, said that Bitcoin has now confirmed a “double bottom” around $78,700. “Now we’re charging at $86K. Smash that level… and things get wild,” he posted.

X上的化名交易員梅爾利（Merlijn）表示，比特幣現在已經確認了78,700美元的“雙重底層”。他說：“現在我們要收取的86,000美元。粉碎了這個水平……事情變得瘋狂了。”

Other market participants noted that short interest is concentrated near $90,000. One X user warned, “$7+ BILLION WORTH OF $BTC SHORTS WILL BE LIQUIDATED AT $90,000.”

其他市場參與者指出，短期利息集中在90,000美元接近$ 90,000。一個X用戶警告說：“價值7億美元的$ BTC短褲將以90,000美元的價格清算。”

Such high concentration increases the likelihood of a short squeeze if the price breaks key resistance. In that scenario, forced buy-backs could amplify upside momentum.

如果價格破壞了關鍵阻力，那麼如此高的集中度就會增加短暫擠壓的可能性。在這種情況下，強迫回購可以擴大上升勢頭。

Meanwhile, Mikybull Crypto posted that Bitcoin’s weekly chart is shaping into a falling wedge—a historically bullish pattern. He cited a breakout target of $99,000.

同時，Mikybull Crypto發布了比特幣的每週圖表正在變成掉落的楔形，這是一種歷史上看漲的模式。他列舉了一個99,000美元的突破目標。

However, these setups require follow-through, and many traders await confirmation from broader market signals.

但是，這些設置需要跟進，許多交易者正在等待更廣泛的市場信號確認。

Bitcoin News: Bollinger Bands Hint At Market Bottom, But Risks Remain

比特幣新聞：Bollinger樂隊暗示了市場的最低點，但風險仍然存在

John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility metric, pointed to a possible bottom forming on BTC’s weekly chart.

Bollinger Bands波動率指標的創建者John Bollinger指出了BTC每週圖表上可能形成的底部。

BTC/USD 1-W price chart. Source: X

BTC/USD 1-W價格表。來源：X

In an April 10 post, Bollinger noted that his proprietary “%b” indicator is showing signs of a classic “W” bottom. “Still needs confirmation,” he wrote, cautioning against premature conclusions.

Bollinger在4月10日的帖子中指出，他的專有“％b”指標顯示了經典的“ W”底部的跡象。他寫道：“仍然需要確認。”

The “%b” metric measures closing prices relative to band positioning, and is often used to detect trend reversals. A validated “W” pattern could indicate that Bitcoin’s recent price zone may serve as a long-term floor.

“％b”度量標準相對於帶定位的價格計算，通常用於檢測趨勢逆轉。經過驗證的“ W”模式可能表明比特幣最近的價格區可能是長期的。

Despite this, Bollinger stressed that the current structure has not confirmed a reversal. BTC/USD continues to trade near the lower band, with the middle band acting as short-term resistance.

儘管如此，Bollinger強調當前的結構尚未確認逆轉。 BTC/USD繼續在下層樂隊附近進行交易，中間樂隊充當短期抵抗。

Macroeconomic Headwinds Add Complexity To Bitcoin Path

宏觀經濟的逆風增加了比特幣路徑的複雜性

Bitcoin’s performance has also become more correlated with traditional equities. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, noted that both stocks and BTC are entering deep oversold territory.

比特幣的性能也與傳統股票更加相關。 Fidelity Investments全球宏觀主管Jurrien Timmer指出，股票和BTC都進入了深售的領土。

“Revisiting the Bollinger Bands, we have gone from 2 standard deviations above-trend to almost 2 standard deviations below-trend,” Timmer said. His comment referred to the S&P 500, but applies to Bitcoin’s setup as well.

蒂默說：“重新審視布林樂隊，我們已經從高於趨勢的2個標準偏差變為趨勢低於差的2個標準偏差。”他的評論提到標準普爾500指數，但也適用於比特幣的設置。

Network economist Timothy Peterson echoed this view. He noted that Bitcoin led the Nasdaq during the latest market downturn but may lag in its recovery.

網絡經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）回應了這一觀點。他指出，比特幣在最新市場的低迷中領導了納斯達克股票，但可能落後於其恢復。

Bitcoin and NASDAQ suffer deepening drawdowns. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

比特幣和納斯達克遭受加深的縮水。資料來源：蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）/X

“Bitcoin led NASDAQ on this decline. I would expect NASDAQ to rally first, and then Bitcoin (BTC),” Peterson said. He added that a 10% drop in equities could still be pending.

彼得森說：“比特幣帶領納斯達克局勢下降。我希望納斯達克首先集會，然後是比特幣（BTC）。”他補充說，股票的下降仍可能正在待處理。

Whales have re-entered the market aggressively, amassing over 100,000 BTC since March. While retail investors remain on the sidelines, large players appear to be preparing for the next major move.

鯨魚已經積極地重新進入市場，自3月以來積累了100,000多個BTC。雖然散戶投資者仍然處於場外，但大型球員似乎正在為下一個重大行動做準備。

Technical setups hint at a bullish breakout, with concentrated shorts above $90,000 offering fuel for a potential squeeze. At the same time, volatility indicators and macro headwinds underscore the risk of further downside.

技術設置暗示了看漲的突破，集中短褲超過90,000美元，提供燃料，以擠壓。同時，波動率指示器和宏觀阻力強調了進一步弊端的風險。