主要见解：自3月以来，大型比特币（BTC）持有人吸收了100,000多个BTC

自3月以来，大型比特币（BTC）持有人已经吸收了100,000多个BTC，这无见零售需求疲软和网络活动停滞。

Key Insights

关键见解

* Large Bitcoin (BTC) holders have absorbed over 100,000 BTC since March, even as weak retail demand and stagnant network activity continue.

*自3月以来，大型比特币（BTC）持有人已经吸收了100,000多个BTC，即使零售需求疲软，网络活动仍在继续。

* Data from Caueconomy reveals that wallets linked to institutional players have ramped up accumulation despite persistent uncertainty in the market.

*来自Cauecormony的数据表明，尽管市场上的不确定性持续不确定性，但与机构参与者相关的钱包仍在增加积累。

* This trend highlights a clear divide in market behavior, with smaller investors remaining cautious while large participants are aprovechar lower prices to reduce their average acquisition cost.

*这一趋势强调了市场行为的明显鸿沟，较小的投资者保持谨慎，而大型参与者则是较低的价格，以降低其平均收购成本。

Whale Reserves Grow While Retail Interest Slows

鲸鱼储备在零售利息放慢时增长

Between December and February, whale wallets remained mostly inactive. However, that trend reversed in March. Since then, large BTC holders have been accumulating, adding more than 100,000 BTC to their reserves.

在12月至2月之间，鲸鱼钱包仍然大部分不活跃。但是，这种趋势在三月扭转。从那时起，大型BTC持有人一直在积累，在其储备中增加了100,000多个BTC。

These whales, often referred to as “smart money,” seem unfazed by recent price swings. They continue to buy in zones typically marked by institutional interest. In contrast, retail traders have pulled back, and overall on-chain activity shows no major uptick.

这些鲸鱼通常被称为“聪明的钱”，似乎对最近的价格波动并不感到震惊。他们继续购买通常以机构利益为标志的区域。相比之下，零售商人退缩了，整体上的链活动没有显示出重大的上升。

“Despite low activity on the Bitcoin network and weak retail demand, whale reserves have continued to grow,” Caueconomy wrote on X. The statement highlights long-term conviction among larger market players, especially during times of declining prices.

Cauecomany在X上写道：“尽管比特币网络上的活动较低和零售需求疲软，但鲸鱼储量仍在继续增长。”声明重点介绍了较大的市场参与者之间的长期定罪，尤其是在价格下降的时候。

This divergence is now shaping short-term market sentiment and long-term positioning, with whales potentially preparing for a future exit during the next rally.

现在，这种差异正在塑造短期市场的情绪和长期定位，鲸鱼可能在下一次集会期间为未来退出做准备。

Technicals Signal Bounce Potential As Shorts Cluster Around $90K

技术弹性弹跳潜力，短裤聚集在$ 90K左右

Traders tracking price behavior are divided, but several patterns suggest a bounce may be underway.

交易者跟踪价格行为是分配的，但是几种模式表明可能正在进行反弹。

Merlijn, a pseudonymous trader on X, said that Bitcoin has now confirmed a “double bottom” around $78,700. “Now we’re charging at $86K. Smash that level… and things get wild,” he posted.

X上的化名交易员梅尔利（Merlijn）表示，比特币现在已经确认了78,700美元的“双重底层”。他说：“现在我们要收取的86,000美元。粉碎了这个水平……事情变得疯狂了。”

Other market participants noted that short interest is concentrated near $90,000. One X user warned, “$7+ BILLION WORTH OF $BTC SHORTS WILL BE LIQUIDATED AT $90,000.”

其他市场参与者指出，短期利息集中在90,000美元接近$ 90,000。一个X用户警告说：“价值7亿美元的$ BTC短裤将以90,000美元的价格清算。”

Such high concentration increases the likelihood of a short squeeze if the price breaks key resistance. In that scenario, forced buy-backs could amplify upside momentum.

如果价格破坏了关键阻力，那么如此高的集中度就会增加短暂挤压的可能性。在这种情况下，强迫回购可以扩大上升势头。

Meanwhile, Mikybull Crypto posted that Bitcoin’s weekly chart is shaping into a falling wedge—a historically bullish pattern. He cited a breakout target of $99,000.

同时，Mikybull Crypto发布了比特币的每周图表正在变成掉落的楔形，这是一种历史上看涨的模式。他列举了一个99,000美元的突破目标。

However, these setups require follow-through, and many traders await confirmation from broader market signals.

但是，这些设置需要跟进，许多交易者正在等待更广泛的市场信号确认。

Bitcoin News: Bollinger Bands Hint At Market Bottom, But Risks Remain

比特币新闻：Bollinger乐队暗示了市场的最低点，但风险仍然存在

John Bollinger, the creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility metric, pointed to a possible bottom forming on BTC’s weekly chart.

Bollinger Bands波动率指标的创建者John Bollinger指出了BTC每周图表上可能形成的底部。

BTC/USD 1-W price chart. Source: X

BTC/USD 1-W价格表。来源：X

In an April 10 post, Bollinger noted that his proprietary “%b” indicator is showing signs of a classic “W” bottom. “Still needs confirmation,” he wrote, cautioning against premature conclusions.

Bollinger在4月10日的帖子中指出，他的专有“％b”指标显示了经典的“ W”底部的迹象。他写道：“仍然需要确认。”

The “%b” metric measures closing prices relative to band positioning, and is often used to detect trend reversals. A validated “W” pattern could indicate that Bitcoin’s recent price zone may serve as a long-term floor.

“％b”度量标准相对于带定位的价格计算，通常用于检测趋势逆转。经过验证的“ W”模式可能表明比特币最近的价格区可能是长期的。

Despite this, Bollinger stressed that the current structure has not confirmed a reversal. BTC/USD continues to trade near the lower band, with the middle band acting as short-term resistance.

尽管如此，Bollinger强调当前的结构尚未确认逆转。 BTC/USD继续在下层乐队附近进行交易，中间乐队充当短期抵抗。

Macroeconomic Headwinds Add Complexity To Bitcoin Path

宏观经济的逆风增加了比特币路径的复杂性

Bitcoin’s performance has also become more correlated with traditional equities. Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments, noted that both stocks and BTC are entering deep oversold territory.

比特币的性能也与传统股票更加相关。 Fidelity Investments全球宏观主管Jurrien Timmer指出，股票和BTC都进入了深售的领土。

“Revisiting the Bollinger Bands, we have gone from 2 standard deviations above-trend to almost 2 standard deviations below-trend,” Timmer said. His comment referred to the S&P 500, but applies to Bitcoin’s setup as well.

蒂默说：“重新审视布林乐队，我们已经从高于趋势的2个标准偏差变为趋势低于差的2个标准偏差。”他的评论提到标准普尔500指数，但也适用于比特币的设置。

Network economist Timothy Peterson echoed this view. He noted that Bitcoin led the Nasdaq during the latest market downturn but may lag in its recovery.

网络经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）回应了这一观点。他指出，比特币在最新市场的低迷中领导了纳斯达克股票，但可能落后于其恢复。

Bitcoin and NASDAQ suffer deepening drawdowns. Source: Timothy Peterson/X

比特币和纳斯达克遭受加深的缩水。资料来源：蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）/X

“Bitcoin led NASDAQ on this decline. I would expect NASDAQ to rally first, and then Bitcoin (BTC),” Peterson said. He added that a 10% drop in equities could still be pending.

彼得森说：“比特币带领纳斯达克局势下降。我希望纳斯达克首先集会，然后是比特币（BTC）。”他补充说，股票的下降仍可能正在待处理。

Whales have re-entered the market aggressively, amassing over 100,000 BTC since March. While retail investors remain on the sidelines, large players appear to be preparing for the next major move.

鲸鱼已经积极地重新进入市场，自3月以来积累了100,000多个BTC。虽然散户投资者仍然处于场外，但大型球员似乎正在为下一个重大行动做准备。

Technical setups hint at a bullish breakout, with concentrated shorts above $90,000 offering fuel for a potential squeeze. At the same time, volatility indicators and macro headwinds underscore the risk of further downside.

技术设置暗示了看涨的突破，集中短裤超过90,000美元，提供燃料，以挤压。同时，波动率指示器和宏观阻力强调了进一步弊端的风险。