比特幣（BTC）從1月的高峰起30％的鼻子，引發了人們對其近期穩定性的擔憂

比特幣最近的Nosedive使投資者坐下了席位。加密貨幣從1月的山峰起就下降了30％，引發了人們對其近期穩定性的擔憂。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has come a long way since hitting lows of $77,041 in March following a 30% correction from January’s highs. As the cryptocurrency’s price continues to recover, new data from Bitfinex sheds light on what drove the sell-off and whether more downside is in sight.

自從一月份的高點進行30％的更正後，比特幣（BTC）的價格自3月的低點售價為77,041美元以來，比特幣（BTC）的價格已經走了很長一段路。隨著加密貨幣的價格繼續恢復，來自Bitfinex的新數據闡明了推動了拋售的原因以及是否有更多的缺點。

As Bitfinex analysts point out, short-term holders (STH) played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s sharp correction from a peak of $109,590 in January to lows of $77,041 in March.

正如Bitfinex分析師所指出的那樣，短期持有人（STH）在比特幣的急劇糾正中發揮了至關重要的作用，從一月份的109,590美元的峰值到3月的77,041美元。

According to Bitfinex, STH, defined as those who hold coins for less than 30 days, accumulated substantial unrealised losses. In an effort to mitigate these losses and avoid further depreciation, they panicked and sold, ultimately accelerating the downturn.

根據Bitfinex的說法，STH定義為那些持有硬幣不到30天的人，積累了實質性未實現的損失。為了減輕這些損失並避免進一步折舊，他們驚慌失措並出售，最終加速了經濟下滑。

“The short-term holders tend to be more sensitive to market noise and react more impulsively to volatility, often selling at local lows,” Bitfinex analysts explained.

Bitfinex分析師解釋說：“短期持有人往往對市場噪聲更敏感，並對波動性更加衝動，通常在當地低點出售。”

Their capitulation also coincided with the absence of institutional buying activity, which usually helps absorb some of the selling pressure. However, this time, institutions remained largely indifferent, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to the full brunt of the sell-off.

他們的投降還與缺乏機構購買活動相吻合，這通常有助於吸收一些銷售壓力。但是，這次，機構在很大程度上保持了無動於衷，使比特幣容易受到拋售的全部首當其衝。

While institutions played a role in Bitcoin’s rally earlier in the year, recent data shows that their demand has been weakening. Notably, Bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of $920 million during the week of March 9-15, highlighting a lack of interest from major investors.

儘管機構在今年早些時候在比特幣的集會中發揮了作用，但最近的數據表明他們的需求一直在削弱。值得注意的是，比特幣期貨交易所交易基金（ETFS）在3月9日至15日一周中的流出量為9.2億美元，這強調了主要投資者缺乏興趣。

“These massive outflows suggest that institutions are not yet confident enough to buy the dip despite the recent price declines,” Bitfinex analysts stated.

Bitfinex分析師說：“這些大規模的流出表明，儘管最近的價格下跌，但機構尚未足夠自信，無法購買DIP。”

Without any significant buying pressure from institutions to counter the sell-off, Bitcoin is unable to absorb the excess selling supply. For the market to stabilize, we may need to see renewed inflows into crypto ETFs or large-scale purchases from institutions.

如果沒有機構應對拋售的任何重大購買壓力，比特幣將無法吸收多餘的銷售供應。為了使市場穩定，我們可能需要看到從機構的加密ETF或大規模購買的重新流入。

“Without this type of participation, the market remains susceptible to unpredictable swings in price, driven primarily by retail sentiment,” Bitfinex analysts added.

Bitfinex分析師補充說：“沒有這種類型的參與，市場仍然容易受到不可預測的價格的影響，這主要是由零售情緒驅動的。”

However, despite the March lows, Bitcoin’s price has since recovered somewhat, and it appears that the worst of the sell-off might be over.

但是，儘管有三月的低點，但比特幣的價格從那以後還是有所恢復過來，看來拋售最糟糕的情況可能已經結束了。

As the cryptocurrency’s price rose 9.5% from its March lows to reach $84,357, it seems that buyers are returning at lower levels. If this trend continues, it could lead to further stability for Bitcoin.

由於加密貨幣的價格從3月的低點上漲了9.5％，達到84,357美元，看來買家的水平較低。如果這種趨勢持續下去，它可能會導致比特幣的進一步穩定性。

According to Bitfinex, this stability at lower prices could be a factor that is familiar from past cycles. As Bitfinex analysts note, in previous cycles, when Bitcoin experienced a 30% correction, it was usually followed by a strong comeback.

根據Bitfinex的說法，價格較低的這種穩定性可能是過去週期所熟悉的因素。正如Bitfinex分析師所指出的那樣，在以前的周期中，當比特幣進行了30％的校正時，通常會出現強烈的複出。

“History shows that such corrections often mark a bottom before upward momentum resumes. However, optimism should be tempered by the fact that macroeconomic risks remain elevated and investor confidence is still shaky, which could derail any recovery in the making.”

“歷史表明，這種校正通常標誌著向上勢頭恢復，但是，宏觀經濟風險仍然升高，投資者的信心仍然搖搖欲墜，這可能會使這種恢復的恢復脫穎而出。”

In addition to the crypto market trends, broader economic concerns are also affecting Bitcoin’s price. Notably, U.S. consumer confidence reached a two-year low in March, while inflation worries persist.

除了加密市場的趨勢外，更廣泛的經濟問題還影響了比特幣的價格。值得注意的是，三月份的美國消費者信心達到了兩年低點，而通貨膨脹則持續存在。

Furthermore, a Federal Reserve model predicts a 2.8% contraction in GDP by early 2025, which might indicate a recession. In the same vein, global trade war rumors are also putting pressure on Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset.

此外，美聯儲模型預測，到2025年初，GDP的收縮將為2.8％，這可能表明經濟衰退。同樣，全球貿易戰謠言也施加了比特幣作為避風港資產的作用的壓力。

Despite the White House announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, there are still doubts about whether Bitcoin can truly protect investors from macroeconomic storms.

儘管白宮宣布了戰略性比特幣儲備，但仍然懷疑比特幣是否可以真正保護投資者免受宏觀經濟風暴的侵害。

The outflows from crypto ETFs also highlight the waning interest from institutional investors. Over five weeks, Bitcoin-focused products saw outflows of $5.4 billion, according to CoinShares data.

加密ETF的流出也強調了機構投資者的興趣減弱。根據Coinshares的數據，在五週內，以比特幣為中心的產品看到了54億美元的流出。

This marks a series of outflows that now total $6.4 billion as institutions continue to flee riskier assets amid shaky markets. While ETFs played a role in supporting Bitcoin’s price earlier in the year, their decreasing influence might leave the asset vulnerable.

這標誌著一系列流出的流出，這些流出現在總計64億美元，因為機構在搖搖欲墜的市場中繼續逃離風險較高的資產。儘管ETF在今年早些時候支持比特幣的價格方面發揮了作用，但其影響力的下降可能會使資產脆弱。

“Without any significant buying pressure from institutions to counter the sell-off, Bitcoin may struggle to absorb the selling supply and return to its highs.”

“如果沒有機構的任何重大購買壓力來應對拋售，比特幣可能難以吸收銷售供應並回到其高點。”