比特币（BTC）从1月的高峰起30％的鼻子，引发了人们对其近期稳定性的担忧

比特币最近的Nosedive使投资者坐下了席位。加密货币从1月的山峰起就下降了30％，引发了人们对其近期稳定性的担忧。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has come a long way since hitting lows of $77,041 in March following a 30% correction from January’s highs. As the cryptocurrency’s price continues to recover, new data from Bitfinex sheds light on what drove the sell-off and whether more downside is in sight.

自从一月份的高点进行30％的更正后，比特币（BTC）的价格自3月的低点售价为77,041美元以来，比特币（BTC）的价格已经走了很长一段路。随着加密货币的价格继续恢复，来自Bitfinex的新数据阐明了推动了抛售的原因以及是否有更多的缺点。

As Bitfinex analysts point out, short-term holders (STH) played a crucial role in Bitcoin’s sharp correction from a peak of $109,590 in January to lows of $77,041 in March.

正如Bitfinex分析师所指出的那样，短期持有人（STH）在比特币的急剧纠正中发挥了至关重要的作用，从一月份的109,590美元的峰值到3月的77,041美元。

According to Bitfinex, STH, defined as those who hold coins for less than 30 days, accumulated substantial unrealised losses. In an effort to mitigate these losses and avoid further depreciation, they panicked and sold, ultimately accelerating the downturn.

根据Bitfinex的说法，STH定义为那些持有硬币不到30天的人，积累了实质性未实现的损失。为了减轻这些损失并避免进一步折旧，他们惊慌失措并出售，最终加速了经济下滑。

“The short-term holders tend to be more sensitive to market noise and react more impulsively to volatility, often selling at local lows,” Bitfinex analysts explained.

Bitfinex分析师解释说：“短期持有人往往对市场噪声更敏感，并对波动性更加冲动，通常在当地低点出售。”

Their capitulation also coincided with the absence of institutional buying activity, which usually helps absorb some of the selling pressure. However, this time, institutions remained largely indifferent, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to the full brunt of the sell-off.

他们的投降还与缺乏机构购买活动相吻合，这通常有助于吸收一些销售压力。但是，这次，机构在很大程度上保持了无动于衷，使比特币容易受到抛售的全部首当其冲。

While institutions played a role in Bitcoin’s rally earlier in the year, recent data shows that their demand has been weakening. Notably, Bitcoin futures exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows of $920 million during the week of March 9-15, highlighting a lack of interest from major investors.

尽管机构在今年早些时候在比特币的集会中发挥了作用，但最近的数据表明他们的需求一直在削弱。值得注意的是，比特币期货交易所交易基金（ETFS）在3月9日至15日一周中的流出量为9.2亿美元，这强调了主要投资者缺乏兴趣。

“These massive outflows suggest that institutions are not yet confident enough to buy the dip despite the recent price declines,” Bitfinex analysts stated.

Bitfinex分析师说：“这些大规模的流出表明，尽管最近的价格下跌，但机构尚未足够自信，无法购买DIP。”

Without any significant buying pressure from institutions to counter the sell-off, Bitcoin is unable to absorb the excess selling supply. For the market to stabilize, we may need to see renewed inflows into crypto ETFs or large-scale purchases from institutions.

如果没有机构应对抛售的任何重大购买压力，比特币将无法吸收多余的销售供应。为了使市场稳定，我们可能需要看到从机构的加密ETF或大规模购买的重新流入。

“Without this type of participation, the market remains susceptible to unpredictable swings in price, driven primarily by retail sentiment,” Bitfinex analysts added.

Bitfinex分析师补充说：“没有这种类型的参与，市场仍然容易受到不可预测的价格的影响，这主要是由零售情绪驱动的。”

However, despite the March lows, Bitcoin’s price has since recovered somewhat, and it appears that the worst of the sell-off might be over.

但是，尽管有三月的低点，但比特币的价格从那以后还是有所恢复过来，看来抛售最糟糕的情况可能已经结束了。

As the cryptocurrency’s price rose 9.5% from its March lows to reach $84,357, it seems that buyers are returning at lower levels. If this trend continues, it could lead to further stability for Bitcoin.

由于加密货币的价格从3月的低点上涨了9.5％，达到84,357美元，看来买家的水平较低。如果这种趋势持续下去，它可能会导致比特币的进一步稳定性。

According to Bitfinex, this stability at lower prices could be a factor that is familiar from past cycles. As Bitfinex analysts note, in previous cycles, when Bitcoin experienced a 30% correction, it was usually followed by a strong comeback.

根据Bitfinex的说法，价格较低的这种稳定性可能是过去周期所熟悉的因素。正如Bitfinex分析师所指出的那样，在以前的周期中，当比特币进行了30％的校正时，通常会出现强烈的复出。

“History shows that such corrections often mark a bottom before upward momentum resumes. However, optimism should be tempered by the fact that macroeconomic risks remain elevated and investor confidence is still shaky, which could derail any recovery in the making.”

“历史表明，这种校正通常标志着向上势头恢复之前的底部。但是，宏观经济风险保持升高，投资者的信心仍然摇摇欲坠，这可能会使任何恢复中的任何恢复脱轨。”

In addition to the crypto market trends, broader economic concerns are also affecting Bitcoin’s price. Notably, U.S. consumer confidence reached a two-year low in March, while inflation worries persist.

除了加密市场的趋势外，更广泛的经济问题还影响了比特币的价格。值得注意的是，三月份的美国消费者信心达到了两年低点，而通货膨胀则持续存在。

Furthermore, a Federal Reserve model predicts a 2.8% contraction in GDP by early 2025, which might indicate a recession. In the same vein, global trade war rumors are also putting pressure on Bitcoin’s role as a safe-haven asset.

此外，美联储模型预测，到2025年初，GDP的收缩将为2.8％，这可能表明经济衰退。同样，全球贸易战谣言也施加了比特币作为避风港资产的作用的压力。

Despite the White House announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve, there are still doubts about whether Bitcoin can truly protect investors from macroeconomic storms.

尽管白宫宣布了战略性比特币储备，但仍然怀疑比特币是否可以真正保护投资者免受宏观经济风暴的侵害。

The outflows from crypto ETFs also highlight the waning interest from institutional investors. Over five weeks, Bitcoin-focused products saw outflows of $5.4 billion, according to CoinShares data.

加密ETF的流出也强调了机构投资者的兴趣减弱。根据Coinshares的数据，在五周内，以比特币为中心的产品看到了54亿美元的流出。

This marks a series of outflows that now total $6.4 billion as institutions continue to flee riskier assets amid shaky markets. While ETFs played a role in supporting Bitcoin’s price earlier in the year, their decreasing influence might leave the asset vulnerable.

这标志着一系列流出的流出，这些流出现在总计64亿美元，因为机构在摇摇欲坠的市场中继续逃离风险较高的资产。尽管ETF在今年早些时候支持比特币的价格方面发挥了作用，但其影响力的下降可能会使资产脆弱。

“Without any significant buying pressure from institutions to counter the sell-off, Bitcoin may struggle to absorb the selling supply and return to its highs.”

“如果没有机构的任何重大购买压力来应对抛售，比特币可能难以吸收销售供应并回到其高点。”