比特幣（BTC）市場在樂觀期望和警告警告之間振盪

比特幣市場在樂觀的期望和警告警告之間振盪，反映了潛在的轉折週期的不確定性。

Bitcoin continues to attract investors' attention, with some bold forecasts projecting its price to cross $150,000 in the coming years. However, on-chain data seems to be raising some red flags. According to the Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Index (IBCI), a key tool for analyzing market trends, the asset might be nearing a cycle peak. These observations beg the question of whether the current momentum is sustainable or if a correction is imminent.

比特幣繼續吸引投資者的注意力，一些大膽的預測預測其價格在未來幾年中將超過15萬美元。但是，鍊鍊數據似乎正在引起一些危險信號。根據比特幣週期指標指數（IBCI），這是分析市場趨勢的關鍵工具，資產可能接近週期峰。這些觀察結果提出了一個問題，即目前的動量是可持續的還是即將進行的校正。

On-chain indicators entering a critical zone

進入關鍵區域的鍊鍊指標

The Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Index (IBCI), which aggregates seven key market analysis tools, is showing signs of being in a precarious zone. It has entered what many analysts refer to as the “distribution zone,” a threshold that has been observed for the first time in eight months. This critical stage is often associated with an increase in selling pressure from long-term investors, a behavior that is frequently observed at cycle peaks. As Gaah, an analyst at CryptoQuant, puts it: “When the IBCI reaches 100%, markets tend to enter correction phases that often signal the beginning of a bear market.”

匯總七個關鍵市場分析工具的比特幣週期指標指數（IBCI）顯示出處於不穩定區域的跡象。它輸入了許多分析師所說的“分配區”，這是八個月來首次觀察到的閾值。這個關鍵階段通常與長期投資者的銷售壓力增加有關，這種行為經常在周期峰值上觀察到。正如加利福特（CryptoFunt）的分析師Gaah所說：“當IBCI達到100％時，市場傾向於進入更正階段，通常表明熊市的開始。”

Among the indicators integrated into the IBCI, the Puell Multiple remains below critical levels, offering some leeway to optimistic investors. This indicator assesses the profitability of miners relative to their annual average, and its current level suggests that the market retains some potential for further growth. In contrast, other tools like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicate increased profit-taking, a dynamic that reflects typical behaviors during potential peak phases. These mixed signals heighten uncertainty around bitcoin's future trajectory.

在集成到IBCI中的指標中，Puell多次保持在關鍵水平以下，為樂觀的投資者提供了一些餘地。該指標評估了礦工相對於其年平均水平的盈利能力，目前的水平表明，市場保留了進一步增長的潛力。相比之下，其他工具（例如用過的產出利潤率（SOPR））表明利潤增加，這種動態反映了潛在峰值階段中典型的行為。這些混合信號提高了比特幣未來軌蹟的不確定性。

Possible scenarios for bitcoin: hope or imminent correction?

比特幣的可能方案：希望還是即將進行更正？

Despite the warning signs highlighted by on-chain indicators, some analysts believe that bitcoin still has growth potential before it may undergo a correction. Timothy Peterson, an economist specializing in the Bitcoin network, stated in a post on January 24, 2025, on the social network X (formerly Twitter) that “BTC could rise to $137,000 before falling back under six figures for a local low.” This analysis relies on a 90% correlation with the bullish cycle of 2015-2017, a similarity that continues to fuel optimism among some investors.

儘管有鍊鍊指標強調了警告跡象，但一些分析師認為，比特幣在進行更正之前仍然具有增長潛力。專門從事比特幣網絡的經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）在2025年1月24日在社交網絡X（以前稱為Twitter）上的帖子中說：“ BTC可能會上升到137,000美元，然後以六位數的價格跌入六位數。”該分析依賴於2015 - 2017年的看漲週期的90％相關性，這種相似之處繼續激發了一些投資者的樂觀情緒。

However, this optimistic view is tempered by other indicators, which call for greater caution. The Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Index (IBCI), while having reached a critical zone, remains below the extreme levels observed at previous peaks. This positioning suggests that a moderate increase is still possible, but does not exclude the risk of heightened volatility in the coming months. The current situation reflects a precarious balance between cautious optimism and growing nervousness, leaving the market uncertain about its next major move.

但是，這種樂觀的觀點受到其他指標的調節，這需要更加謹慎。比特幣循環指標指數（IBCI）雖然達到臨界區域，但仍低於先前峰值觀察到的極端水平。這種定位表明，仍然有可能增加增長，但並不排除未來幾個月內波動率提高的風險。當前的情況反映了謹慎的樂觀與日益緊張的態度之間的不穩定平衡，使市場對其下一個重大行動不確定。

The bitcoin market oscillates between optimistic expectations and cautionary warnings, reflecting the uncertainties of a potentially turning cycle. If the asset manages to reach new highs, it could solidify its position as a key holding in institutional portfolios. In contrast, a sharp correction could alter investors’ strategies, already sensitized by the warning signals emitted by on-chain indicators. This situation underscores the importance of rigorous risk management, as bitcoin appears to be approaching a critical phase in its evolution.

比特幣市場在樂觀的期望和警告警告之間振盪，反映了潛在的轉折週期的不確定性。如果資產設法達到新的高點，它可以鞏固其作為機構投資組合中的關鍵持有的地位。相比之下，急劇的糾正可能會改變投資者的策略，該戰略已經通過鍊鍊指標發出的警告信號敏感。這種情況強調了嚴格的風險管理的重要性，因為比特幣似乎正在接近其進化中的關鍵階段。

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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019.

我是科學畢業生Po Toulouse，並獲得了Alyra的區塊鏈顧問認證的持有者，我於2019年加入了Cointribune Adventure。

Convinced of blockchain's potential to transform many sectors of the economy, I am committed to raising awareness and informing the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and grasp the opportunities it offers.

我堅信區塊鏈有可能改變經濟的許多部門的潛力，我致力於提高認識並告知普通公眾這種不斷發展的生態系統。我的目標是使每個人都能更好地了解區塊鏈並掌握其提供的機會。

I strive every day to provide a rigorous analysis of the news, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations, and to put into perspective the economic and societal challenges of this unfolding revolution.

我每天都在努力對新聞進行嚴格的分析，破譯市場趨勢，傳達最新的技術創新，並介紹這一不斷發展的革命的經濟和社會挑戰。