比特币（BTC）市场在乐观期望和警告警告之间振荡

比特币市场在乐观的期望和警告警告之间振荡，反映了潜在的转折周期的不确定性。

Bitcoin continues to attract investors' attention, with some bold forecasts projecting its price to cross $150,000 in the coming years. However, on-chain data seems to be raising some red flags. According to the Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Index (IBCI), a key tool for analyzing market trends, the asset might be nearing a cycle peak. These observations beg the question of whether the current momentum is sustainable or if a correction is imminent.

比特币继续吸引投资者的注意力，一些大胆的预测预测其价格在未来几年中将超过15万美元。但是，链链数据似乎正在引起一些危险信号。根据比特币周期指标指数（IBCI），这是分析市场趋势的关键工具，资产可能接近周期峰。这些观察结果提出了一个问题，即目前的动量是可持续的还是即将进行的校正。

On-chain indicators entering a critical zone

进入关键区域的链链指标

The Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Index (IBCI), which aggregates seven key market analysis tools, is showing signs of being in a precarious zone. It has entered what many analysts refer to as the “distribution zone,” a threshold that has been observed for the first time in eight months. This critical stage is often associated with an increase in selling pressure from long-term investors, a behavior that is frequently observed at cycle peaks. As Gaah, an analyst at CryptoQuant, puts it: “When the IBCI reaches 100%, markets tend to enter correction phases that often signal the beginning of a bear market.”

汇总七个关键市场分析工具的比特币周期指标指数（IBCI）显示出处于不稳定区域的迹象。它输入了许多分析师所说的“分配区”，这是八个月来首次观察到的阈值。这个关键阶段通常与长期投资者的销售压力增加有关，这种行为经常在周期峰值上观察到。正如加利福特（CryptoFunt）的分析师Gaah所说：“当IBCI达到100％时，市场倾向于进入更正阶段，通常表明熊市的开始。”

Among the indicators integrated into the IBCI, the Puell Multiple remains below critical levels, offering some leeway to optimistic investors. This indicator assesses the profitability of miners relative to their annual average, and its current level suggests that the market retains some potential for further growth. In contrast, other tools like the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicate increased profit-taking, a dynamic that reflects typical behaviors during potential peak phases. These mixed signals heighten uncertainty around bitcoin's future trajectory.

在集成到IBCI中的指标中，Puell多次保持在关键水平以下，为乐观的投资者提供了一些余地。该指标评估了矿工相对于其年平均水平的盈利能力，目前的水平表明，市场保留了进一步增长的潜力。相比之下，其他工具（例如用过的产出利润率（SOPR））表明利润增加，这种动态反映了潜在峰值阶段中典型的行为。这些混合信号提高了比特币未来轨迹的不确定性。

Possible scenarios for bitcoin: hope or imminent correction?

比特币的可能方案：希望还是即将进行更正？

Despite the warning signs highlighted by on-chain indicators, some analysts believe that bitcoin still has growth potential before it may undergo a correction. Timothy Peterson, an economist specializing in the Bitcoin network, stated in a post on January 24, 2025, on the social network X (formerly Twitter) that “BTC could rise to $137,000 before falling back under six figures for a local low.” This analysis relies on a 90% correlation with the bullish cycle of 2015-2017, a similarity that continues to fuel optimism among some investors.

尽管有链链指标强调了警告迹象，但一些分析师认为，比特币在进行更正之前仍然具有增长潜力。专门从事比特币网络的经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）在2025年1月24日在社交网络X（以前称为Twitter）上的帖子中说：“ BTC可能会上升到137,000美元，然后以六位数的价格跌入六位数。”该分析依赖于2015 - 2017年的看涨周期的90％相关性，这种相似之处继续激发了一些投资者的乐观情绪。

However, this optimistic view is tempered by other indicators, which call for greater caution. The Bitcoin Cycle Indicator Index (IBCI), while having reached a critical zone, remains below the extreme levels observed at previous peaks. This positioning suggests that a moderate increase is still possible, but does not exclude the risk of heightened volatility in the coming months. The current situation reflects a precarious balance between cautious optimism and growing nervousness, leaving the market uncertain about its next major move.

但是，这种乐观的观点受到其他指标的调节，这需要更加谨慎。比特币循环指标指数（IBCI）虽然达到临界区域，但仍低于先前峰值观察到的极端水平。这种定位表明，仍然有可能增加增长，但并不排除未来几个月内波动率提高的风险。当前的情况反映了谨慎的乐观与日益紧张的态度之间的不稳定平衡，使市场对其下一个重大行动不确定。

The bitcoin market oscillates between optimistic expectations and cautionary warnings, reflecting the uncertainties of a potentially turning cycle. If the asset manages to reach new highs, it could solidify its position as a key holding in institutional portfolios. In contrast, a sharp correction could alter investors’ strategies, already sensitized by the warning signals emitted by on-chain indicators. This situation underscores the importance of rigorous risk management, as bitcoin appears to be approaching a critical phase in its evolution.

比特币市场在乐观的期望和警告警告之间振荡，反映了潜在的转折周期的不确定性。如果资产设法达到新的高点，它可以巩固其作为机构投资组合中的关键持有的地位。相比之下，急剧的纠正可能会改变投资者的策略，该战略已经通过链链指标发出的警告信号敏感。这种情况强调了严格的风险管理的重要性，因为比特币似乎正在接近其进化中的关键阶段。

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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019.

我是科学毕业生Po Toulouse，并获得了Alyra的区块链顾问认证的持有者，我于2019年加入了Cointribune Adventure。

Convinced of blockchain's potential to transform many sectors of the economy, I am committed to raising awareness and informing the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to enable everyone to better understand blockchain and grasp the opportunities it offers.

我坚信区块链有可能改变经济的许多部门的潜力，我致力于提高认识并告知普通公众这种不断发展的生态系统。我的目标是使每个人都能更好地了解区块链并掌握其提供的机会。

I strive every day to provide a rigorous analysis of the news, to decipher market trends, to relay the latest technological innovations, and to put into perspective the economic and societal challenges of this unfolding revolution.

我每天都在努力对新闻进行严格的分析，破译市场趋势，传达最新的技术创新，并介绍这一不断发展的革命的经济和社会挑战。