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儘管 9 月收盤呈綠色,但比特幣 (BTC) 和其他市場在 10 月開始面臨另一場大屠殺。
Bitcoin (BTC) price began October with a downturn, losing 7% of its value in the first week and triggering a bearish sentiment among investors. However, most analysts remain optimistic about BTC’s performance in the next three months.
比特幣(BTC)價格從 10 月開始就出現低迷,第一週就下跌了 7%,引發了投資人的看跌情緒。不過,大多數分析師仍對比特幣未來三個月的表現感到樂觀。
After a green close in September, Bitcoin price opened the new month with a bearish trend, losing 6.5% of its market capitalization in the first market shakeout of Q4 2023. Most cryptocurrencies in the top 100 registered a considerable price drop despite showing green numbers in the daily and weekly timeframes.
在9 月以綠色收盤後,比特幣價格以看跌趨勢開啟了新的一個月,在2023 年第四季的第一次市場震盪中,其市值損失 儘管2023 年第四季的數字呈綠色,但前100 名中的大多數加密貨幣的價格均出現了大幅下跌。
The bleeding was led by Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap, as its price dropped below the $61,000 support zone, a range not seen in nearly two weeks. The downturn followed the news of an Iranian missile strike on Israel, which seemed to have sparked a selloff among investors.
市值最大的加密貨幣比特幣領跌,其價格跌破 61,000 美元的支撐區域,這是近兩週來未曾見過的區間。伊朗飛彈襲擊以色列的消息引發了投資者的拋售,引發了經濟低迷。
The occurrence ended the BTC spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) 8-day inflow streak and triggered the liquidation of over $526 million in leveraged positions in the last 24 hours.
這一事件結束了 BTC 現貨交易所交易基金 (ETF) 連續 8 天的流入,並在過去 24 小時內引發了超過 5.26 億美元的槓桿頭寸清算。
Despite the bearish sentiment, many industry watchers remained unfazed by the market shakeout, considering that the month has just started. In a series of X posts, crypto analyst Jelle pointed out that Bitcoin price historically began its second leg higher during October in the past bull years.
儘管市場情緒悲觀,但考慮到這個月才剛開始,許多行業觀察家仍然沒有受到市場震蕩的影響。在一系列 X 貼文中,加密貨幣分析師 Jelle 指出,在過去的多頭年份中,比特幣價格歷史上在 10 月開始第二輪走高。
He explained that BTC’s price historically breaks out in the second or third week of the month, so the first week retrace could be the “final shakeout before new highs.” Moreover, he highlighted that the flagship crypto recently made the first higher high in 6 months and reclaimed the key resistance level above $60,000.
他解釋說,歷史上比特幣的價格會在每個月的第二週或第三週突破,因此第一周的回檔可能是「新高之前的最後一次震盪」。此外,他強調,旗艦加密貨幣最近創下了 6 個月來的首個更高高點,並收復了 6 萬美元上方的關鍵阻力位。
Jelle also noted that BTC made a higher low on October 1, holding the $60,000 support zone and retesting its strength above the $61,000 mark. The analyst considers that “It’s time for this descending broadening wedge to start playing out,” reasserting his previous target of $90,000.
Jelle 還指出,BTC 在 10 月 1 日創下了更高的低點,守住了 60,000 美元的支撐區域,並重新測試了其在 61,000 美元大關上方的強度。這位分析師認為,“現在是這個下行楔形開始發揮作用的時候了”,重申了他之前的 90,000 美元目標。
Other analysts also shared their views on the market shakeout. Altcoin Sherpa highlighted that “the last time we saw this much compression with 1d EMAs was September 2023, right before the market skyrocketed.”
其他分析師也分享了他們對市場震蕩的看法。 Altcoin Sherpa 強調,“我們上次看到 1 日 EMA 出現如此大的壓縮是在 2023 年 9 月,就在市場飆升之前。”
Meanwhile, DonAlt expressed a more cautious approach, stating that Bitcoin could look “much worse” considering the circumstances, but suggested waiting for the weekly close would be best to conclude.
與此同時,DonAlt 表達了更謹慎的態度,表示考慮到當前情況,比特幣可能看起來“更糟”,但建議最好等待每週收盤後得出結論。
However, trader Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin has “bottomed/topped at basically the same time” since June. Per the post, on the fifth day of each month, BTC’s price has registered a massive correction, except for September, when it occurred on the sixth day.
然而,交易員 Daan Crypto Trades 指出,自 6 月以來,比特幣「基本上同時見底/見頂」。根據該帖子,比特幣的價格在每個月的第五天都會大幅調整,但 9 月除外,當時的調整發生在第五天。
During the Q3 retraces, BTC registered daily red candles ahead of the fifth-day plunge. The price recorded a 16.3%, 25%, and 11% decline in July, August, and September from the beginning of each month until the end of the first-week shakeout.
在第三季回撤期間,比特幣在第五天暴跌之前出現每日紅色蠟燭。 7月、8月、9月從月初到首周震盪結束,價格分別錄得16.3%、25%和11%的跌幅。
If the pattern repeated this month, investors could see BTC’s price dropping below the recently reclaimed $60,000 support level and test the strengths of lower key support zones. However, it would also mean that the flagship cryptocurrency would potentially recover by the start of the second week.
如果本月重複這種模式,投資者可能會看到 BTC 的價格跌破最近收復的 60,000 美元支撐位,並測試較低關鍵支撐區域的強度。然而,這也意味著旗艦加密貨幣可能會在第二週初恢復。
As of this writing, BTC is trading at $61,466, a 2% drop in the last 24 hours.
截至撰寫本文時,BTC 交易價格為 61,466 美元,在過去 24 小時內下跌了 2%。
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