BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，比特幣 (BTC) 將在 3 月底達到頂峰

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，聯準會的量化緊縮和流動性措施可能會推動比特幣在第一季末達到高峰。

The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening measures could drive Bitcoin (BTC) to a late Q1 peak, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 表示，聯準會的量化緊縮措施可能會推動比特幣 (BTC) 在第一季末達到高峰。

In his latest essay on Jan. 7, Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will hit its peak around late March, highlighting the Fed's challenges in maintaining market stability while withdrawing $180 billion through quantitative tightening from January to March.

海耶斯在1 月7 日的最新文章中預測，比特幣將在3 月下旬左右達到峰值，突顯了聯準會在1 月至3 月透過量化緊縮撤回1800 億美元的同時維持市場穩定所面臨的挑戰。

However, a adjustment to the Reverse Repo Program rate will inject $237 billion of liquidity, according to Hayes, who adds that this money will flow into higher-yielding Treasury bills, resulting in a net liquidity addition of $57 billion in Q1.

然而，海耶斯表示，逆回購計畫利率的調整將注入2,370 億美元的流動性，他補充說，這筆資金將流入收益較高的國債，導致第一季流動性淨增加570 億美元。

The Treasury's General Account will also factor in the equation. “Bad Gurl Yellen” (Hayes' nickname for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen) has initiated “extraordinary measures” to fund the government while awaiting Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Until then, the Treasury can only spend from the TGA, which Hayes projects to be depleted by May or June. This spending adds liquidity to the market, but once the ceiling is raised, the Treasury will need to refill its account, pulling liquidity out.

財政部的一般帳戶也將納入該等式中。 「壞古爾·耶倫」（海斯對財政部長珍妮特·耶倫的暱稱）已啟動「非常措施」為政府提供資金，同時等待國會提高債務上限。在此之前，財政部只能從 TGA 中支出，海耶斯預計 TGA 的資金將在 5 月或 6 月耗盡。這些支出增加了市場的流動性，但一旦上限提高，財政部將需要補充其帳戶，從而抽走流動性。

According to Hayes, the market will respond to these liquidity shifts, and he predicts that Bitcoin and the broader market will peak “in mid to late March,” similar to March 2024, when Bitcoin peaked around $73,000. After that, the market might face headwinds from tax deadlines and TGA replenishment.

Hayes 表示，市場將對這些流動性變化做出反應，他預測比特幣和更廣泛的市場將在「3 月中下旬」達到峰值，類似於2024 年3 月，當時比特幣達到73,000 美元左右的峰值。此後，市場可能會面臨納稅期限和 TGA 補充的阻力。

The BitMEX co-founder believes that the Fed is “exhausting all tools at its disposal,” adding that future moves could include stopping QT or even restarting quantitative easing. For now, Hayes says liquidity conditions in Q1 suggest a temporary boost for risk assets like Bitcoin.

這位 BitMEX 聯合創始人認為，聯準會正在“用盡所有可用工具”，並補充說，未來的舉措可能包括停止 QT，甚至重啟量化寬鬆。海耶斯表示，目前第一季的流動性狀況顯示比特幣等風險資產暫時得到提振。