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BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 表示,美联储的量化紧缩和流动性措施可能会推动比特币在第一季度末达到峰值。
The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening measures could drive Bitcoin (BTC) to a late Q1 peak, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 表示,美联储的量化紧缩措施可能会推动比特币 (BTC) 在第一季度末达到峰值。
In his latest essay on Jan. 7, Hayes predicts that Bitcoin will hit its peak around late March, highlighting the Fed's challenges in maintaining market stability while withdrawing $180 billion through quantitative tightening from January to March.
海耶斯在 1 月 7 日的最新文章中预测,比特币将在 3 月下旬左右达到峰值,突显了美联储在 1 月至 3 月通过量化紧缩撤回 1800 亿美元的同时维持市场稳定所面临的挑战。
However, a adjustment to the Reverse Repo Program rate will inject $237 billion of liquidity, according to Hayes, who adds that this money will flow into higher-yielding Treasury bills, resulting in a net liquidity addition of $57 billion in Q1.
然而,海耶斯表示,逆回购计划利率的调整将注入 2370 亿美元的流动性,他补充说,这笔资金将流入收益较高的国债,从而导致第一季度流动性净增加 570 亿美元。
The Treasury's General Account will also factor in the equation. “Bad Gurl Yellen” (Hayes' nickname for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen) has initiated “extraordinary measures” to fund the government while awaiting Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Until then, the Treasury can only spend from the TGA, which Hayes projects to be depleted by May or June. This spending adds liquidity to the market, but once the ceiling is raised, the Treasury will need to refill its account, pulling liquidity out.
财政部的一般账户也将纳入该等式中。 “坏古尔·耶伦”(海斯对财政部长珍妮特·耶伦的昵称)已启动“非常措施”为政府提供资金,同时等待国会提高债务上限。在此之前,财政部只能从 TGA 中支出,海耶斯预计 TGA 的资金将在 5 月或 6 月耗尽。这些支出增加了市场的流动性,但一旦上限提高,财政部将需要补充其账户,从而抽走流动性。
According to Hayes, the market will respond to these liquidity shifts, and he predicts that Bitcoin and the broader market will peak “in mid to late March,” similar to March 2024, when Bitcoin peaked around $73,000. After that, the market might face headwinds from tax deadlines and TGA replenishment.
Hayes 表示,市场将对这些流动性变化做出反应,他预测比特币和更广泛的市场将在“3 月中下旬”达到峰值,类似于 2024 年 3 月,当时比特币达到 73,000 美元左右的峰值。此后,市场可能会面临纳税期限和 TGA 补充的阻力。
The BitMEX co-founder believes that the Fed is “exhausting all tools at its disposal,” adding that future moves could include stopping QT or even restarting quantitative easing. For now, Hayes says liquidity conditions in Q1 suggest a temporary boost for risk assets like Bitcoin.
这位 BitMEX 联合创始人认为,美联储正在“用尽所有可用工具”,并补充说,未来的举措可能包括停止 QT,甚至重启量化宽松。海耶斯表示,目前第一季度的流动性状况表明比特币等风险资产暂时得到提振。
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