由於穩定幣供應在美國通膨數據公佈前陷入停滯，比特幣（BTC）面臨下行波動風險

自周一以來，比特幣 (BTC) 從 90,000 美元以下快速反彈，暗示著看漲前景。然而，有一個因素讓人懷疑這些成果的可持續性

Bitcoin's (BTC) rapid recovery from below the $90,000 level since Monday has sparked optimism about bullish prospects. However, one key factor casts doubt on the sustainability of these gains and highlights the potential for significant downside volatility if upcoming U.S. inflation data exceeds expectations on Wednesday.

自周一以來，比特幣 (BTC) 從 90,000 美元以下的水平快速反彈，引發了人們對看漲前景的樂觀情緒。然而，一個關鍵因素讓人對這些漲幅的可持續性產生懷疑，並凸顯出如果週三即將公佈的美國通膨數據超出預期，則可能出現大幅下行波動。

The factor in question is the stalling supply of major stablecoins, which indicates the absence of fresh capital inflows into the market. According to data tracked by Glassnode, the supply of the top four stablecoins by market value - USDT, USDC, BUSD, and DAI - has flattened around the $189 billion mark, indicating a 30-day net change of only 0.37%.

問題的因素是主要穩定幣的供應停滯，這表明缺乏新的資本流入市場。根據 Glassnode 追蹤的數據，市值排名前四的穩定幣——USDT、USDC、BUSD 和 DAI——的供應量已基本持平在 1,890 億美元大關附近，顯示 30 天淨變動僅為 0.37%。

Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies designed to maintain a value peg to an external reference, such as the U.S. dollar. These tokens are commonly used to fund cryptocurrency purchases and also served as a safe haven during the 2022 bear market.

穩定幣是一種加密貨幣，旨在保持與美元等外部參考的價值掛鉤。這些代幣通常用於為加密貨幣購買提供資金，並在 2022 年熊市期間充當避風港。

The recent slowdown in new liquidity via stablecoins, which comes as the market awaits the release of the U.S. consumer price index (CPI), contrasts sharply with the expansion of stablecoin liquidity observed during the November-December rally and early last year.

最近，在市場等待美國消費者物價指數（CPI）發布之際，穩定幣帶來的新增流動性放緩，這與11 月至12 月反彈期間以及去年初觀察到的穩定幣流動性擴張形成鮮明對比。

"That the late-2024 rally required almost 2x the capital inflow for a smaller price gain highlights the speculative demand and liquidity-driven momentum that has since cooled," noted Glassnode in a Telegram note.

Glassnode 在一份 Telegram 報告中指出：“2024 年末的上漲需要近兩倍的資本流入才能實現較小的價格漲幅，這突顯了投機需求和流動性驅動的勢頭此後已經冷卻。”

The data, due at 13:30 UTC Wednesday, is expected to show the cost of living rose 0.3% month-on-month in December, maintaining November's pace. The year-on-year figure is seen printing at 2.9%, up from November's 2.75%. The core figure, which strips out the volatile food and energy component, is forecast to have risen 0.2% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year.

該數據將於世界標準時間週三 13:30 發布，預計顯示 12 月生活成本將比去年同期上漲 0.3%，維持 11 月的成長速度。年比數字預計為 2.9%，高於 11 月的 2.75%。剔除波動較大的食品和能源成分後的核心數據預計將較上季成長 0.2%，較去年同期成長 3.3%。

An above-forecast headline/core figure would likely amplify recent concerns about the central bank being less aggressive in cutting interest rates than expected. These concerns, bolstered by Friday's strong jobs report, were partly responsible for BTC falling below $90,000 on Monday.

高於預期的整體/核心數據可能會加劇近期人們對央行降息力度不如預期的擔憂。這些擔憂，加上週五強勁的就業報告的支撐，是 BTC 週一跌破 90,000 美元的部分原因。

The latest drying up of stablecoin liquidity, which is often viewed as dry powder waiting to be deployed for crypto purchases, stands in stark contrast to the $27.3 billion in inflows registered in November and December that partly fueled the BTC bull run from $70,000 to over $108,000.

穩定幣流動性通常被視為等待部署加密貨幣購買的乾粉，最近的流動性枯竭與11 月和12 月錄得的273 億美元資金流入形成鮮明對比，這在一定程度上推動了BTC 牛市從70,000美元升至超過108,000 美元。

Meanwhile, a much lesser stablecoin inflow of $14.68 billion was seen during the first quarter of 2024, when prices rose nearly 70% to over $70,000.

同時，2024 年第一季穩定幣流入量大幅減少，為 146.8 億美元，當時價格上漲近 70%，超過 7 萬美元。