比特幣（BTC）似乎已鎖定在迷你熊市

比特幣BTC/USD似乎已鎖定在迷你熊市中，技術信號較弱，動力褪色和缺乏新鮮的催化劑，嚴重影響了價格動作

Bitcoin BTC/USD appears to be locked in a mini bear market, with weak technical signals, fading momentum, and a lack of fresh catalysts weighing heavily on price action, according to a Tuesday market note from 10x Research.

根據10倍研究的周二市場宣布，比特幣BTC/USD似乎被鎖定在迷你熊市市場，技術信號較弱，勢頭褪色和缺乏新鮮的催化劑在重視價格行動上。

What Happened: In the report, the firm said Bitcoin is currently trading below its key trend model level of $88,000 — an indicator they consider crucial for gauging bull versus bear cycles.

發生了什麼：在報告中，該公司表示，比特幣目前的交易低於其關鍵趨勢模型88,000美元的水平，這是他們認為對衡量公牛與熊週期至關重要的指標。

"There’s little doubt from on-chain data that Bitcoin is in at least a mini-bear market,” 10x Research said, adding that without a turnaround in momentum, “that remains the base case.”

10倍研究說：“從鏈上數據中，比特幣處於至少一個小型鍛煉市場中，毫無疑問，”他補充說，他補充說，在動力上沒有轉變，這仍然是基本情況。 ”

While some short-term technical indicators briefly hinted at a relief rally, the bounce stalled at $88,500 and has since reversed.

儘管一些短期技術​​指標簡短地暗示了一場救濟集會，但反彈的停滯量為88,500美元，此後倒轉了。

Bitcoin is also still below its 21-week moving average, a widely-used long-term trend signal.

比特幣仍低於其21週的移動平均線，這是一個廣泛使用的長期趨勢信號。

One of the firm’s most reliable metrics — the short-term holder realized price, now near $93,000 — has acted as stiff resistance.

該公司最可靠的指標之一 - 短期持有人實現的價格（現在接近93,000美元）是堅強的抵抗力。

The rejection at this level suggests traders are exiting breakeven positions, further reinforcing bearish pressure.

在此級別的拒絕表明，交易者正在退出盈虧平衡的位置，進一步加強了看跌壓力。

On-chain data also supports this cautious outlook.

鏈上數據還支持這種謹慎的前景。

Funding rates remain depressed, signaling reduced risk appetite, while retail investor activity has plummeted — particularly after losses in meme tokens like Trump TRUMP/USD.

資金率仍然沮喪，信號降低了風險食慾，而散戶投資者的活動暴跌 - 尤其是在像特朗普·特朗普（Trump Trump）/美元（Trump Trump/USD）這樣的Meme代幣損失之後。

“Confidence took a major hit when retail lost billions,” the report noted, with exchange listings near peak prices providing exit liquidity for insiders.

該報告指出，“當零售損失數十億美元時，信心受到了重大打擊，”交換列表附近的峰值價格為內部人員提供了出口流動性。

ETF outflows have now continued for a second consecutive month. Hedge funds that previously executed arbitrage trades using Bitcoin ETFs are pulling back due to low funding rates.

ETF流出現在連續第二個月持續。由於資金率低，以前使用比特幣ETF執行套利交易的對沖基金正在退縮。

“Without a meaningful rise in funding rates, it’s unlikely ETF inflows return to their former strength,” 10x explained.

10倍解釋說：“沒有有意義的資金率上升，ETF不太可能恢復到以前的力量。”

The broader macro environment offers little comfort either. While market hopes are pinned on a potential Fed rate cut by June, 10x believes it’s more likely to be delayed until September due to sticky inflation and resilient labor data.

更廣泛的宏觀環境也幾乎沒有舒適感。儘管市場希望在6月降低的潛在美聯儲率限制，但10倍認為由於通貨膨脹和彈性勞動力數據，更有可能將其推遲到9月。

“Bitcoin is looking for real action — not just dovish talk,” the note emphasized.

該說明強調：“比特幣正在尋找真正的行動，而不僅僅是奇怪的談話。”

Political developments have also failed to ignite momentum. Despite Trump’s efforts to boost sentiment — such as announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve — these moves lack legislative backing.

政治發展也未能激發勢頭。儘管特朗普努力提高情緒（例如宣布戰略比特幣儲備），但這些舉動仍缺乏立法支持。

“Holding confiscated Bitcoins doesn’t create buying pressure,” the report said, suggesting that much of the recent crypto optimism has been narrative-driven rather than supported by fundamentals.

報告說：“持有沒收的比特幣並不會造成購買壓力。”這表明，最近的許多加密樂觀情緒都是由敘事驅動的，而不是基本面的支持。

Why It Matters: Despite the bearish tone, the firm sees relative strength in Bitcoin compared to altcoins, many of which are underperforming sharply.

為什麼很重要：儘管看跌，但與山寨幣相比，該公司看到比特幣的相對強度，其中許多表現急劇下降。

Their proprietary model combining total crypto market cap and Bitcoin dominance confirms this trend.

他們結合了加密貨幣市值和比特幣優勢的專有模型證實了這一趨勢。

Notably, Tron TRX/USD and Toncoin TON/USD have stood out for showing resilience in a weak market, potentially due to favorable geopolitical positioning.

值得注意的是，TRON TRX/USD和Toncoin噸/USD在弱市場中表現出彈性而脫穎而出，這可能是由於有利的地緣政治定位。

In the near term, 10x expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $73,000 and $94,000.

在短期內，10倍預計比特幣將在73,000美元至94,000美元之間保持範圍。

“Volatility is likely,” they said, recommending selling options strategies — such as puts or calls — depending on whether price moves toward the lower or upper end of that range.

他們說：“波動性可能是波動性的，建議銷售期權策略（例如權利或呼叫），具體取決於價格向該範圍的下端還是上端移動。

Unless a clear macro shift or bullish catalyst emerges, the outlook remains muted.

除非出現明顯的宏觀轉移或看漲催化劑，否則前景仍然存在。

“The current market structure is fragile,” the analysts said, suggesting that their view that Bitcoin is now in a confirmed mini bear market.

分析師說：“當前的市場結構是脆弱的，”這表明他們認為比特幣現在正在確認的迷你熊市中。