比特币（BTC）似乎已锁定在迷你熊市

比特币BTC/USD似乎已锁定在迷你熊市中，技术信号较弱，动力褪色和缺乏新鲜的催化剂，严重影响了价格动作

Bitcoin BTC/USD appears to be locked in a mini bear market, with weak technical signals, fading momentum, and a lack of fresh catalysts weighing heavily on price action, according to a Tuesday market note from 10x Research.

根据10倍研究的周二市场宣布，比特币BTC/USD似乎被锁定在迷你熊市市场，技术信号较弱，势头褪色和缺乏新鲜的催化剂在重视价格行动上。

What Happened: In the report, the firm said Bitcoin is currently trading below its key trend model level of $88,000 — an indicator they consider crucial for gauging bull versus bear cycles.

发生了什么：在报告中，该公司表示，比特币目前的交易低于其关键趋势模型88,000美元的水平，这是他们认为对衡量公牛与熊周期至关重要的指标。

"There’s little doubt from on-chain data that Bitcoin is in at least a mini-bear market,” 10x Research said, adding that without a turnaround in momentum, “that remains the base case.”

10倍研究说：“从链上数据中，比特币处于至少一个小型锻炼市场中，毫无疑问，”他补充说，他补充说，在动力上没有转变，这仍然是基本情况。”

While some short-term technical indicators briefly hinted at a relief rally, the bounce stalled at $88,500 and has since reversed.

尽管一些短期技术​​指标简短地暗示了一场救济集会，但反弹的停滞量为88,500美元，此后倒转了。

Bitcoin is also still below its 21-week moving average, a widely-used long-term trend signal.

比特币仍低于其21周的移动平均线，这是一个广泛使用的长期趋势信号。

One of the firm’s most reliable metrics — the short-term holder realized price, now near $93,000 — has acted as stiff resistance.

该公司最可靠的指标之一 - 短期持有人实现的价格（现在接近93,000美元）是坚强的抵抗力。

The rejection at this level suggests traders are exiting breakeven positions, further reinforcing bearish pressure.

在此级别的拒绝表明，交易者正在退出盈亏平衡的位置，进一步加强了看跌压力。

On-chain data also supports this cautious outlook.

链上数据还支持这种谨慎的前景。

Funding rates remain depressed, signaling reduced risk appetite, while retail investor activity has plummeted — particularly after losses in meme tokens like Trump TRUMP/USD.

资金率仍然沮丧，信号降低了风险食欲，而散户投资者的活动暴跌 - 尤其是在像特朗普·特朗普（Trump Trump）/美元（Trump Trump/USD）这样的Meme代币损失之后。

“Confidence took a major hit when retail lost billions,” the report noted, with exchange listings near peak prices providing exit liquidity for insiders.

该报告指出，“当零售损失数十亿美元时，信心受到了重大打击，”交换列表附近的峰值价格为内部人员提供了出口流动性。

ETF outflows have now continued for a second consecutive month. Hedge funds that previously executed arbitrage trades using Bitcoin ETFs are pulling back due to low funding rates.

ETF流出现在连续第二个月持续。由于资金率低，以前使用比特币ETF执行套利交易的对冲基金正在退缩。

“Without a meaningful rise in funding rates, it’s unlikely ETF inflows return to their former strength,” 10x explained.

10倍解释说：“没有有意义的资金率上升，ETF不太可能恢复到以前的力量。”

The broader macro environment offers little comfort either. While market hopes are pinned on a potential Fed rate cut by June, 10x believes it’s more likely to be delayed until September due to sticky inflation and resilient labor data.

更广泛的宏观环境也几乎没有舒适感。尽管市场希望在6月降低的潜在美联储率限制，但10倍认为由于通货膨胀和弹性劳动力数据，更有可能将其推迟到9月。

“Bitcoin is looking for real action — not just dovish talk,” the note emphasized.

该说明强调：“比特币正在寻找真正的行动，而不仅仅是奇怪的谈话。”

Political developments have also failed to ignite momentum. Despite Trump’s efforts to boost sentiment — such as announcing a strategic Bitcoin reserve — these moves lack legislative backing.

政治发展也未能激发势头。尽管特朗普努力提高情绪（例如宣布战略比特币储备），但这些举动仍缺乏立法支持。

“Holding confiscated Bitcoins doesn’t create buying pressure,” the report said, suggesting that much of the recent crypto optimism has been narrative-driven rather than supported by fundamentals.

报告说：“持有没收的比特币并不会造成购买压力。”这表明，最近的许多加密乐观情绪都是由叙事驱动的，而不是基本面的支持。

Why It Matters: Despite the bearish tone, the firm sees relative strength in Bitcoin compared to altcoins, many of which are underperforming sharply.

为什么很重要：尽管看跌，但与山寨币相比，该公司看到比特币的相对强度，其中许多表现急剧下降。

Their proprietary model combining total crypto market cap and Bitcoin dominance confirms this trend.

他们结合了加密货币市值和比特币优势的专有模型证实了这一趋势。

Notably, Tron TRX/USD and Toncoin TON/USD have stood out for showing resilience in a weak market, potentially due to favorable geopolitical positioning.

值得注意的是，TRON TRX/USD和Toncoin吨/USD在弱市场中表现出弹性而脱颖而出，这可能是由于有利的地缘政治定位。

In the near term, 10x expects Bitcoin to remain range-bound between $73,000 and $94,000.

在短期内，10倍预计比特币将在73,000美元至94,000美元之间保持范围。

“Volatility is likely,” they said, recommending selling options strategies — such as puts or calls — depending on whether price moves toward the lower or upper end of that range.

他们说：“波动性可能是波动性的，建议销售期权策略（例如权利或呼叫），具体取决于价格向该范围的下端还是上端移动。

Unless a clear macro shift or bullish catalyst emerges, the outlook remains muted.

除非出现明显的宏观转移或看涨催化剂，否则前景仍然存在。

“The current market structure is fragile,” the analysts said, suggesting that their view that Bitcoin is now in a confirmed mini bear market.

分析师说：“当前的市场结构是脆弱的，”这表明他们认为比特币现在正在确认的迷你熊市中。