本週比特幣（BTC）和大多數山寨幣都略有反彈

比特幣（BTC）仍然停留在$ 80,000以上，而模因硬幣（Pepe（Pepe），Shiba Inu（Shib）（Shib）和Floki（Floki）飆升

Top U.S. economist Mark Zandi has issued a bleak warning, saying that the country may be sliding toward a recession.

美國頂級經濟學家馬克·贊迪（Mark Zandi）發出了慘淡的警告，稱該國可能會滑向衰退。

Zandi, who is also the Chief Economist at Moody's, took to X to share his insights. According to Zandi, his number one recession indicator is "flashing bright yellow."

Zandi也是穆迪（Moody's）的首席經濟學家，他參加了X分享他的見解。根據贊迪（Zandi）的說法，他的第一大衰退指標是“閃爍亮黃色”。

This indicator tracks consumer confidence, which Zandi says is a key driver of economic activity. According to Zandi, consumer confidence has dropped 17 points over the past three months.

該指標跟踪消費者的信心，Zandi說這是經濟活動的主要驅動力。根據贊迪（Zandi）的說法，消費者的信心在過去三個月中下降了17分。

"FYI, consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is down 17 points over the past 3 months. Remember my #1 recession watch indicator is that if confidence falls by 20 points over 3 months, consumers stop spending and recession ensues about 6 months later. This..."

“僅在過去3個月中，由會議委員會衡量的消費者信心下降了17分。請記住，我的＃1衰退手錶指標是，如果信心在3個月內下降了20分，消費者停止支出和衰退大約6個月後。這……”。

According to Zandi, a technical recession happens when the US economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.

根據贊迪（Zandi）的說法，當美國經濟連續兩個季度簽約時，就會發生技術衰退。

The stellar returns of Bitcoin (BTC) and most altcoins have come to a halt this week, as the cryptocurrency market has begun to slide.

比特幣（BTC）和大多數山寨幣的恆星回報本週已經停止，因為加密貨幣市場已經開始滑行。

According to data from Messari, total cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at around $2.96 trillion. Over the past week, Bitcoin and most altcoins have bounced back slightly.

根據Messari的數據，總的加密貨幣市值現在約為2.96萬億美元。在過去的一周中，比特幣和大多數山寨幣都略有反彈。

Bitcoin price is currently above $86,000, while meme coins like Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Floki (FLOKI) have seen double-digit gains this week.

比特幣的價格目前超過86,000美元，而模因硬幣（Pepe（Pepe），Shiba Inu（Shib）（Shib）和Floki（Floki）等模因硬幣本週獲得了兩位數的收益。

The cryptocurrency market has been battered in recent months, with Bitcoin falling sharply from its all-time high of nearly $70,000, which it hit late last year.

最近幾個月，加密貨幣市場受到襲擊，比特幣的歷史最高近70,000美元急劇下降，這是去年年底襲擊的。

The downturn has been driven by a number of factors, including the macroeconomic environment, the collapse of major crypto firms, and the potential for increased regulation.

低迷是由許多因素驅動的，包括宏觀經濟環境，主要加密公司的崩潰以及增加監管的可能性。

However, despite the recent downturn, Zandi says that he believes the cryptocurrency market is still in a bull market.

但是，儘管最近經歷了最近的低迷，但贊迪說，他認為加密貨幣市場仍在牛市。

"I think we're still in a bull market for crypto, despite the recent downturn," Zandi said in an interview with Real Vision. "We're seeing a lot of interest from institutional investors, and I think that will continue to drive prices up over the long term."

贊迪在接受《真實願景》採訪時說：“儘管最近經歷了最近的經濟，我認為我們仍然處於加密貨幣市場。” “我們看到機構投資者的興趣很大，我認為這將在長期內繼續提高價格。”

Zandi also said that he believes Bitcoin and other altcoins would do well in a recession.

贊迪（Zandi）還說，他相信比特幣和其他替代幣在經濟衰退中會做得很好。

"My view is that if we do go into a recession, which I think is possible, it would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump's tariffs," Zandi said.

贊迪說：“我的觀點是，如果我們確實陷入衰退，我認為這是可能的，那將是唐納德·特朗普的關稅會自我造成的。”

"If Trump ends or scales down his tariffs, which I think he might do if we go into a recession, then we could see a return of risk-on sentiment and investors could flow back into Bitcoin and other altcoins."

“如果特朗普結束或減少了他的關稅，我認為如果我們陷入衰退，他可能會這樣做，那麼我們可以看到風險的情緒回報，投資者可能會流回比特幣和其他替代幣。”

A recession is a period of significant economic downturn in which a country's gross domestic product (GDP) declines for two or more consecutive quarters, leading to job losses, business closures, and a rise in the unemployment rate.

經濟衰退是一個巨大的經濟衰退時期，一個國家的國內生產總值（GDP）連續兩個或多個季度下降，導致失業，業務關閉和失業率上升。

It stands in contrast to an expansion, which occurs when the GDP grows for two or more quarters, typically accompanied by economic growth, job creation, and a decrease in unemployment.

它與擴張相反，這種擴展發生在GDP生長兩個或更多季度時，通常伴隨著經濟增長，創造就業機會和失業率下降。

Annually, the U.S. economy has fallen into recession an average of once every five to six years, highlighting the cyclical nature of economic activity.

每年，美國經濟平均每五到六年陷入衰退一次，強調了經濟活動的周期性。

However, history shows that risky assets tend to perform well during a major downturn. For example, U.S. stocks embarked on a decade-long bull run after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

但是，歷史表明，在重大低迷期間，風險資產往往效果很好。例如，在2008年全球金融危機之後，美國股票開始了長達十年的公牛。

Most recently, after initially falling, stocks and cryptocurrencies embarked on a strong bull run. Bitcoin surged from $4,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 in November 2021. Similarly, Ethereum jumped from a low of $80 to $4,940 in the same period.

最近，最初跌倒後，股票和加密貨幣進行了強勁的牛。比特幣從2020年3月的4,000美元飆升至2021年11月的69,000美元。同樣，以太坊從同一時期的低點躍升至80美元的低點升至4,940美元。

This rebound was driven by the Federal Reserve, which has a long history of intervening during downturns through rate cuts and quantitative easing.

這種反彈是由美聯儲驅動的，美聯儲通過削減速度和量化寬鬆的衰退期間有很長的歷史。

Risk assets tend to perform well when the Fed lowers interest rates, as cheaper capital encourages risk-on sentiment across markets. If a recession occurs, as Zandi warns, Bitcoin and other altcoins may benefit from such a macro backdrop.

當美聯儲降低利率時，風險資產往往會表現良好，因為便宜的資本會鼓勵整個市場的風險情緒。如果Zandi警告說，如果發生經濟衰退，則比特幣和其他Altcoins可能會從這種宏觀背景中受益。

At the same time, Bitcoin and other altcoins may do well if the U.S. avoids a recession. That’s because this recession would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump’s tariffs. As such, his ending or scaling down his tariffs would also push investors back to risky assets.

同時，如果美國避免經濟衰退，比特幣和其他Altcoins可能會做得很好。那是因為唐納德·特朗普的關稅會自我破壞。因此，他的結局或擴大關稅也將使投資者回到風險的資產中。