本周比特币（BTC）和大多数山寨币都略有反弹

比特币（BTC）仍然停留在$ 80,000以上，而模因硬币（Pepe（Pepe），Shiba Inu（Shib）（Shib）和Floki（Floki）飙升

Top U.S. economist Mark Zandi has issued a bleak warning, saying that the country may be sliding toward a recession.

美国顶级经济学家马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）发出了惨淡的警告，称该国可能会滑向衰退。

Zandi, who is also the Chief Economist at Moody's, took to X to share his insights. According to Zandi, his number one recession indicator is "flashing bright yellow."

Zandi也是穆迪（Moody's）的首席经济学家，他参加了X分享他的见解。根据赞迪（Zandi）的说法，他的第一大衰退指标是“闪烁亮黄色”。

This indicator tracks consumer confidence, which Zandi says is a key driver of economic activity. According to Zandi, consumer confidence has dropped 17 points over the past three months.

该指标跟踪消费者的信心，Zandi说这是经济活动的主要驱动力。根据赞迪（Zandi）的说法，消费者的信心在过去三个月中下降了17分。

"FYI, consumer confidence as measured by the Conference Board is down 17 points over the past 3 months. Remember my #1 recession watch indicator is that if confidence falls by 20 points over 3 months, consumers stop spending and recession ensues about 6 months later. This..."

“仅在过去3个月中，由会议委员会衡量的消费者信心下降了17分。请记住，我的＃1衰退手表指标是，如果信心在3个月内下降了20分，消费者停止支出和衰退大约6个月后。这……”。

According to Zandi, a technical recession happens when the US economy contracts for two consecutive quarters.

根据赞迪（Zandi）的说法，当美国经济连续两个季度签约时，就会发生技术衰退。

The stellar returns of Bitcoin (BTC) and most altcoins have come to a halt this week, as the cryptocurrency market has begun to slide.

比特币（BTC）和大多数山寨币的恒星回报本周已经停止，因为加密货币市场已经开始滑行。

According to data from Messari, total cryptocurrency market capitalization now stands at around $2.96 trillion. Over the past week, Bitcoin and most altcoins have bounced back slightly.

根据Messari的数据，总的加密货币市值现在约为2.96万亿美元。在过去的一周中，比特币和大多数山寨币都略有反弹。

Bitcoin price is currently above $86,000, while meme coins like Pepe (PEPE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Floki (FLOKI) have seen double-digit gains this week.

比特币的价格目前超过86,000美元，而模因硬币（Pepe（Pepe），Shiba Inu（Shib）（Shib）和Floki（Floki）等模因硬币本周获得了两位数的收益。

The cryptocurrency market has been battered in recent months, with Bitcoin falling sharply from its all-time high of nearly $70,000, which it hit late last year.

最近几个月，加密货币市场受到袭击，比特币的历史最高近70,000美元急剧下降，这是去年年底袭击的。

The downturn has been driven by a number of factors, including the macroeconomic environment, the collapse of major crypto firms, and the potential for increased regulation.

低迷是由许多因素驱动的，包括宏观经济环境，主要加密公司的崩溃以及增加监管的可能性。

However, despite the recent downturn, Zandi says that he believes the cryptocurrency market is still in a bull market.

但是，尽管最近经历了最近的低迷，但赞迪说，他认为加密货币市场仍在牛市。

"I think we're still in a bull market for crypto, despite the recent downturn," Zandi said in an interview with Real Vision. "We're seeing a lot of interest from institutional investors, and I think that will continue to drive prices up over the long term."

赞迪在接受《真实愿景》采访时说：“尽管最近经历了最近的经济，我认为我们仍然处于加密货币市场。” “我们看到机构投资者的兴趣很大，我认为这将在长期内继续提高价格。”

Zandi also said that he believes Bitcoin and other altcoins would do well in a recession.

赞迪（Zandi）还说，他相信比特币和其他替代币在经济衰退中会做得很好。

"My view is that if we do go into a recession, which I think is possible, it would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump's tariffs," Zandi said.

赞迪说：“我的观点是，如果我们确实陷入衰退，我认为这是可能的，那将是唐纳德·特朗普的关税会自我造成的。”

"If Trump ends or scales down his tariffs, which I think he might do if we go into a recession, then we could see a return of risk-on sentiment and investors could flow back into Bitcoin and other altcoins."

“如果特朗普结束或减少了他的关税，我认为如果我们陷入衰退，他可能会这样做，那么我们可以看到风险的情绪回报，投资者可能会流回比特币和其他替代币。”

A recession is a period of significant economic downturn in which a country's gross domestic product (GDP) declines for two or more consecutive quarters, leading to job losses, business closures, and a rise in the unemployment rate.

经济衰退是一个巨大的经济衰退时期，一个国家的国内生产总值（GDP）连续两个或多个季度下降，导致失业，业务关闭和失业率上升。

It stands in contrast to an expansion, which occurs when the GDP grows for two or more quarters, typically accompanied by economic growth, job creation, and a decrease in unemployment.

它与扩张相反，这种扩展发生在GDP生长两个或更多季度时，通常伴随着经济增长，创造就业机会和失业率下降。

Annually, the U.S. economy has fallen into recession an average of once every five to six years, highlighting the cyclical nature of economic activity.

每年，美国经济平均每五到六年陷入衰退一次，强调了经济活动的周期性。

However, history shows that risky assets tend to perform well during a major downturn. For example, U.S. stocks embarked on a decade-long bull run after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008.

但是，历史表明，在重大低迷期间，风险资产往往效果很好。例如，在2008年全球金融危机之后，美国股票开始了长达十年的公牛。

Most recently, after initially falling, stocks and cryptocurrencies embarked on a strong bull run. Bitcoin surged from $4,000 in March 2020 to $69,000 in November 2021. Similarly, Ethereum jumped from a low of $80 to $4,940 in the same period.

最近，最初跌倒后，股票和加密货币进行了强劲的牛。比特币从2020年3月的4,000美元飙升至2021年11月的69,000美元。同样，以太坊从同一时期的低点跃升至80美元的低点升至4,940美元。

This rebound was driven by the Federal Reserve, which has a long history of intervening during downturns through rate cuts and quantitative easing.

这种反弹是由美联储驱动的，美联储通过削减速度和量化宽松的衰退期间有很长的历史。

Risk assets tend to perform well when the Fed lowers interest rates, as cheaper capital encourages risk-on sentiment across markets. If a recession occurs, as Zandi warns, Bitcoin and other altcoins may benefit from such a macro backdrop.

当美联储降低利率时，风险资产往往会表现良好，因为便宜的资本会鼓励整个市场的风险情绪。如果Zandi警告说，如果发生经济衰退，则比特币和其他Altcoins可能会从这种宏观背景中受益。

At the same time, Bitcoin and other altcoins may do well if the U.S. avoids a recession. That’s because this recession would be self-inflicted by Donald Trump’s tariffs. As such, his ending or scaling down his tariffs would also push investors back to risky assets.

同时，如果美国避免经济衰退，比特币和其他Altcoins可能会做得很好。那是因为唐纳德·特朗普的关税会自我破坏。因此，他的结局或扩大关税也将使投资者回到风险的资产中。