比特幣與標準普爾 500 指數：哪個是更具冒險精神的投資？

快速瀏覽標準普爾 500 指數和比特幣在過去十年中的年度表現就會發現，比特幣是一種更具冒險性的投資。

2024 saw Bitcoin growing by 111%. One of the safest indexes, the S&P 500, showed 24% growth in 2024. Is Bitcoin a more adventurous investment? There are different takes on this claim.

2024 年，比特幣成長了 111%。最安全的指數之一——標準普爾 500 指數在 2024 年增長了 24%。對於這說法有不同的看法。

A quick look at the annual performance of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin in the last decade

快速瀏覽過去十年標準普爾 500 指數和比特幣的年度表現

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 leading companies in the U.S. stock market. These companies usually comprise around ⅘ of the total market capitalization of U.S. companies.

標準普爾 500 指數是追蹤美國股市 500 家領先公司表現的股票市場指數。這些公司通常占美國公司總市值的⅘左右。

The index includes giants like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Berkshire Hathaway and others. The value of these companies grows consistently, earning the index a reputation for being a safe investment. However, some companies perform better than the index itself. For example, Berkshire Hathaway had a higher annual rate than the S&P 500 last year.

該指數包括英偉達、蘋果、微軟、Meta Platforms、波克夏海瑟威等巨頭。這些公司的價值持續增長，為該指數贏得了安全投資的聲譽。然而，有些公司的表現優於指數本身。例如，波克夏海瑟威去年的年利率高於標準普爾 500 指數。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, had incredible ups and severe downs throughout this period, with the highest growth rate at 1,336% (2017) and the most significant downfall at 73% (2018).

另一方面，比特幣在此期間經歷了令人難以置信的上漲和嚴重下跌，最高成長率為 1,336%（2017 年），最大幅度下跌為 73%（2018 年）。

The annualized total return for Bitcoin (2013–2023) reached 74.1% against the 13.3% rate by the S&P 500. The total return for the same period is 25,480% (Bitcoin) against 250% (the S&P 500), meaning that each dollar invested in BTC in 2013 brought 100x more money in 2023 than each dollar invested in the S&P 500.

比特幣的年化總回報率（2013-2023）達到74.1%，而標準普爾500 指數為13.3%。每一美元2013 年投資 BTC 所帶來的資金到 2023 年將比投資標準普爾 500 指數的每一美元多 100 倍。

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway beat the S&P 500 last year, but they got destroyed by bitcoin's performance. Investors who can think for themselves know bitcoin is the true benchmark, not the S&P 500. Eventually more investors will realize the change.

華倫巴菲特和波克夏海瑟威去年擊敗了標準普爾 500 指數，但他們卻被比特幣的表現摧毀了。能夠獨立思考的投資者知道比特幣才是真正的基準，而不是標準普爾 500 指數。

Is that a sheer victory of Bitcoin in the battle with the S&P 500? Well, the battle probably exists only in the crypto X threads. Rather, let’s take a look at the pros and cons of Bitcoin in comparison to the S&P index.

這是比特幣在與標準普爾500指數的較量中的徹底勝利嗎？好吧，這場戰鬥可能只存在於加密 X 線程中。相反，讓我們來看看比特幣與標準普爾指數相比的優缺點。

Bitcoin vs the S&P 500

比特幣與標準普爾 500 指數對比

Compared to the S&P 500, Bitcoin is considered a more adventurous investment. It spikes higher and drops lower than the S&P 500. For instance, if you invested in BTC in December 2017, you would have to wait over two years to regain your initial investment.

與標準普爾 500 指數相比，比特幣被認為是更具冒險精神的投資。它比標準普爾 500 指數上漲或下跌。

This higher volatility makes Bitcoin a riskier investment. BlackRock advises allocating only up to 2% of your money in Bitcoin to play it safe. Interestingly, some people view Bitcoin as a safer investment than the S&P 500. They argue that many S&P 500 proponents overlook the factor of inflation. During the 1970s, the S&P 500 was not performing well at all as the inflation rate surpassed the returns rate. Another “dark” period occurred in the 2000s. However, in other periods, long-term investment in the S&P 500 proved to be safe.

這種較高的波動性使比特幣成為風險較高的投資。貝萊德建議，為了安全起見，最多只將 2% 的資金配置為比特幣。有趣的是，有些人認為比特幣是比標準普爾 500 指數更安全的投資。 20 世紀 70 年代，由於通貨膨脹率超過了回報率，標準普爾 500 指數表現不佳。另一個「黑暗」時期發生在2000年代。然而，在其他時期，對標準普爾 500 指數的長期投資被證明是安全的。

Compared to the S&P 500, Bitcoin has shorter periods of both negative and positive annual returns. This characteristic makes it a preferred choice over the S&P 500 for safety, as Bitcoin investors may experience periods where the returns dramatically outpace the inflation rates and the chart pits get passed over within these periods.

與標準普爾 500 指數相比，比特幣的年負報酬率和正年報酬週期都較短。這一特性使其成為安全性優於標準普爾 500 指數的首選，因為比特幣投資者可能會經歷回報率大幅超過通貨膨脹率的時期，並且在這些時期內圖表坑會被忽略。

Another downside of the S&P 500 index that critics point out is that instead of investing in a successful company, you buy 500 companies, some of which will drag the index performance down (that’s the reason why certain companies have higher returns than the index itself). At the same time, the growth of some of these companies is explained by the respective growth of the money supply.

批評者指出的標準普爾500 指數的另一個缺點是，你不是投資一家成功的公司，而是購買500 家公司，其中一些公司會拖累指數表現（這就是為什麼某些公司的回報率高於指數本身的原因） 。同時，其中一些公司的成長是由貨幣供應量的相應成長來解釋的。

Research by mathematicians Aubain Nzokem and Daniel Maposa shows that Bitcoin has a nearly 40% higher prevalence to create daily returns than the S&P 500, while the value-to-risk rate is four times higher for Bitcoin.

數學家 Aubain Nzokem 和 Daniel Maposa 的研究表明，比特幣創造每日回報的普及率比標準普爾 500 指數高出近 40%，而比特幣的價值風險比則高出四倍。

Overall, it can be said that the S&P 500 has consistently beaten the inflation rate recently, thereby fulfilling its main purpose of preserving the value of money. Will it ever go to the moon? Well, probably not, as the very structure of this index dictates that you invest in companies that will eventually underperform at some point, averaging out the returns.

整體而言，可以說標普500指數近期持續跑贏通膨率，從而實現了貨幣保值的主要目的。它會去月球嗎？嗯，可能不會，因為該指數的結構本身決定了您投資於最終在某個時候表現不佳的公司，平均回報。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has shown the ability to skyrocket and crash all the time. It has been declared dead many times,

另一方面，比特幣一直表現出暴漲和暴跌的能力。已經多次被宣布死亡