比特币与标准普尔 500 指数：哪个是更具冒险精神的投资？

快速浏览一下标准普尔 500 指数和比特币在过去十年中的年度表现就会发现，比特币是一种更具冒险性的投资。

2024 saw Bitcoin growing by 111%. One of the safest indexes, the S&P 500, showed 24% growth in 2024. Is Bitcoin a more adventurous investment? There are different takes on this claim.

2024 年，比特币增长了 111%。最安全的指数之一——标准普尔 500 指数在 2024 年增长了 24%。比特币是一种更具冒险精神的投资吗？对于这一说法有不同的看法。

A quick look at the annual performance of the S&P 500 and Bitcoin in the last decade

快速浏览过去十年标准普尔 500 指数和比特币的年度表现

The S&P 500 is a stock market index that tracks the performance of 500 leading companies in the U.S. stock market. These companies usually comprise around ⅘ of the total market capitalization of U.S. companies.

标准普尔 500 指数是追踪美国股市 500 家领先公司表现的股票市场指数。这些公司通常占美国公司总市值的⅘左右。

The index includes giants like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, Meta Platforms, Berkshire Hathaway and others. The value of these companies grows consistently, earning the index a reputation for being a safe investment. However, some companies perform better than the index itself. For example, Berkshire Hathaway had a higher annual rate than the S&P 500 last year.

该指数包括英伟达、苹果、微软、Meta Platforms、伯克希尔哈撒韦公司等巨头。这些公司的价值持续增长，为该指数赢得了安全投资的声誉。然而，一些公司的表现优于指数本身。例如，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司去年的年利率高于标准普尔 500 指数。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, had incredible ups and severe downs throughout this period, with the highest growth rate at 1,336% (2017) and the most significant downfall at 73% (2018).

另一方面，比特币在此期间经历了令人难以置信的上涨和严重下跌，最高增长率为 1,336%（2017 年），最大幅度下跌为 73%（2018 年）。

The annualized total return for Bitcoin (2013–2023) reached 74.1% against the 13.3% rate by the S&P 500. The total return for the same period is 25,480% (Bitcoin) against 250% (the S&P 500), meaning that each dollar invested in BTC in 2013 brought 100x more money in 2023 than each dollar invested in the S&P 500.

比特币的年化总回报率（2013-2023）达到 74.1%，而标准普尔 500 指数为 13.3%。同期总回报率为 25,480%（比特币），而标准普尔 500 指数为 250%，这意味着每一美元2013 年投资 BTC 的收益到 2023 年将比投资 BTC 的每一美元多 100 倍标准普尔 500 指数。

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway beat the S&P 500 last year, but they got destroyed by bitcoin's performance. Investors who can think for themselves know bitcoin is the true benchmark, not the S&P 500. Eventually more investors will realize the change.

沃伦·巴菲特和伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司去年击败了标准普尔 500 指数，但他们却被比特币的表现摧毁了。能够独立思考的投资者知道比特币才是真正的基准，而不是标准普尔 500 指数。最终会有更多的投资者意识到这一变化。

Is that a sheer victory of Bitcoin in the battle with the S&P 500? Well, the battle probably exists only in the crypto X threads. Rather, let’s take a look at the pros and cons of Bitcoin in comparison to the S&P index.

这是比特币在与标准普尔500指数的较量中的彻底胜利吗？好吧，这场战斗可能只存在于加密 X 线程中。相反，让我们看一下比特币与标准普尔指数相比的优缺点。

Bitcoin vs the S&P 500

比特币与标准普尔 500 指数对比

Compared to the S&P 500, Bitcoin is considered a more adventurous investment. It spikes higher and drops lower than the S&P 500. For instance, if you invested in BTC in December 2017, you would have to wait over two years to regain your initial investment.

与标准普尔 500 指数相比，比特币被认为是更具冒险精神的投资。它比标准普尔 500 指数上涨或下跌。例如，如果您在 2017 年 12 月投资了 BTC，则需要等待两年多才能收回初始投资。

This higher volatility makes Bitcoin a riskier investment. BlackRock advises allocating only up to 2% of your money in Bitcoin to play it safe. Interestingly, some people view Bitcoin as a safer investment than the S&P 500. They argue that many S&P 500 proponents overlook the factor of inflation. During the 1970s, the S&P 500 was not performing well at all as the inflation rate surpassed the returns rate. Another “dark” period occurred in the 2000s. However, in other periods, long-term investment in the S&P 500 proved to be safe.

这种较高的波动性使比特币成为风险较高的投资。贝莱德建议，为了安全起见，最多只将 2% 的资金配置为比特币。有趣的是，有些人认为比特币是比标准普尔 500 指数更安全的投资。他们认为，许多标准普尔 500 指数的支持者忽视了通货膨胀因素。 20 世纪 70 年代，由于通货膨胀率超过了回报率，标准普尔 500 指数表现不佳。另一个“黑暗”时期发生在2000年代。然而，在其他时期，对标准普尔 500 指数的长期投资被证明是安全的。

Compared to the S&P 500, Bitcoin has shorter periods of both negative and positive annual returns. This characteristic makes it a preferred choice over the S&P 500 for safety, as Bitcoin investors may experience periods where the returns dramatically outpace the inflation rates and the chart pits get passed over within these periods.

与标准普尔 500 指数相比，比特币的年负回报和正年回报周期都较短。这一特性使其成为安全性优于标准普尔 500 指数的首选，因为比特币投资者可能会经历回报率大幅超过通胀率的时期，并且在这些时期内图表坑会被忽略。

Another downside of the S&P 500 index that critics point out is that instead of investing in a successful company, you buy 500 companies, some of which will drag the index performance down (that’s the reason why certain companies have higher returns than the index itself). At the same time, the growth of some of these companies is explained by the respective growth of the money supply.

批评者指出的标准普尔 500 指数的另一个缺点是，你不是投资一家成功的公司，而是购买 500 家公司，其中一些公司会拖累指数表现（这就是为什么某些公司的回报率高于指数本身的原因） 。与此同时，其中一些公司的增长是由货币供应量的相应增长来解释的。

Research by mathematicians Aubain Nzokem and Daniel Maposa shows that Bitcoin has a nearly 40% higher prevalence to create daily returns than the S&P 500, while the value-to-risk rate is four times higher for Bitcoin.

数学家 Aubain Nzokem 和 Daniel Maposa 的研究表明，比特币创造每日回报的普及率比标准普尔 500 指数高出近 40%，而比特币的价值风险比则高出四倍。

Overall, it can be said that the S&P 500 has consistently beaten the inflation rate recently, thereby fulfilling its main purpose of preserving the value of money. Will it ever go to the moon? Well, probably not, as the very structure of this index dictates that you invest in companies that will eventually underperform at some point, averaging out the returns.

总体而言，可以说标普500指数近期持续跑赢通胀率，从而实现了货币保值的主要目的。它会去月球吗？嗯，可能不会，因为该指数的结构本身决定了您投资于最终在某个时候表现不佳的公司，平均回报。

Bitcoin, on the other hand, has shown the ability to skyrocket and crash all the time. It has been declared dead many times,

另一方面，比特币一直表现出暴涨和暴跌的能力。已经多次被宣布死亡