拜登的能源戰略沉默：選情升溫中的一場賭博

儘管民調顯示拜登總統在即將到來的選舉中很脆弱，但他對國內能源產量的大幅增長保持沉默。雖然他的沉默避免了疏遠民主黨聯盟內的環保人士，但也阻礙了解決天然氣和能源價格上漲問題的努力，隨著夏季的臨近，天然氣和能源價格可能會加劇。拜登的能源記錄，包括增加產量，但也限製石油和天然氣租賃，凸顯了政府的「上述所有」政策，讓清潔能源倡議的支持者和反對者都感到沮喪。

Biden's Strategic Silence: A Gambit in the Energy Battlefield

拜登的戰略沉默：能源戰場的招

In a peculiar twist, President Joe Biden has opted to downplay one of his potential electoral strengths: the surge in domestic energy production under his administration. This enigmatic approach belies deep fissures within the Democratic coalition, where climate change reigns supreme and renewable energy, not fossil fuels, is the preferred narrative.

一個奇怪的轉折是，總統拜登選擇淡化他的潛在選舉優勢之一：在他的政府領導下國內能源生產的激增。這種神秘的做法掩蓋了民主黨聯盟內部的深刻裂痕，其中氣候變遷佔據主導地位，再生能源而不是化石燃料是首選的敘事方式。

Biden's silence on his administration's energy record is also a tacit concession to Republicans, who have relentlessly branded him as an energy-sapping figure, not just as a "well-meaning elderly man with a poor memory," but as a leader actively decimating the nation's energy production.

拜登對其政府的能源記錄保持沉默也是對共和黨人的默認讓步，共和黨人無情地將他稱為消耗能源的人物，不僅是“善意的記憶力差的老人”，而且是一位積極摧毀能源的領導人。

Summer's arrival will force Biden to confront his energy quandary. Despite his efforts to convey a positive economic picture, marked by declining crime and a burgeoning economy, persistent inflation looms, threatening to overshadow any progress made. As travelers prepare to hit the road, gas prices are poised to spike once again, adding fuel to the inflation fire. Overall, gas prices have surged by approximately 48% since Biden took office in January 2021.

夏天的到來將迫使拜登面臨能源困境。儘管他努力傳達積極的經濟前景，以犯罪率下降和經濟蓬勃發展為標誌，但持續的通貨膨脹若隱若現，有可能掩蓋所取得的任何進展。當旅客準備上路時，汽油價格可能會再次飆升，加劇通膨。總體而言，自 2021 年 1 月拜登上任以來，天然氣價格已飆升約 48%。

Other energy costs have also skyrocketed, including electricity and piped gas, even amidst record oil and gas production and exports. This paradox presents a dilemma for both Biden and the Republicans.

即使石油和天然氣生產和出口創紀錄，其他能源成本也飆升，包括電力和管道天然氣。這一悖論給拜登和共和黨帶來了兩難的境地。

Mutual Benefits of Energy Silence

能源沉默的互惠互利

Biden is reluctant to trumpet record-breaking liquefied natural gas production and exports, while Republicans are equally loathe to acknowledge it, lest they inadvertently hand Biden a talking point. This tacit agreement stems from a desire to avoid alienating green voters and potentially tarnishing Biden's climate-friendly image.

拜登不願意宣揚破紀錄的液化天然氣產量和出口，而共和黨人也同樣不願意承認這一點，以免無意中給拜登提供了一個話題。這種默契源於避免疏遠綠色選民並可能損害拜登氣候友善形象的願望。

Moreover, Biden may be reticent to highlight energy production because the recent surge is not entirely attributable to his policies. While he has focused on scaling back exploration and imposing restrictions on oil and gas leases, the Trump administration enthusiastically encouraged drilling and exploration.

此外，拜登可能不願意強調能源生產，因為最近的能源生產激增並不完全歸因於他的政策。儘管川普政府專注於縮減勘探規模並對石油和天然氣租約施加限制，但他仍熱情鼓勵鑽探和勘探。

"Energy production is a latency issue," explains Paige Lambermont, research fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute. "The regulations we make today, or last year, don't largely affect the production we see right now."

「能源生產是一個延遲問題，」競爭企業研究所研究員 Paige Lambermont 解釋道。 “我們今天或去年制定的法規不會對我們現在看到的生產產生很大影響。”

"We're not seeing approvals under Joe Biden delivering gas and oil, largely," she continues. "We're seeing previous-era investment."

「我們基本上沒有看到喬·拜登領導下批准交付天然氣和石油，」她繼續說道。 “我們看到了前時代的投資。”

Nevertheless, Biden has poured billions into transitioning the country to green energy, promising to spend even more on developing renewable sources.

儘管如此，拜登還是投入了數十億美元來推動國家向綠色能源轉型，並承諾將在開發再生能源方面投入更多資金。

Green Spending Frenzy

綠色消費狂潮

The Inflation Reduction Act, enacted in 2022, earmarked $369 billion for clean energy initiatives, a figure that has since ballooned. During its first year, the Biden administration invested $110 billion in wind and solar manufacturing and allocated $12.5 billion to extend and expand the electric vehicle tax credit program.

2022 年頒布的《通貨膨脹削減法案》指定了 3,690 億美元用於清潔能源計劃，此後這一數字不斷膨脹。拜登政府在第一年就向風能和太陽能製造業投資了 1,100 億美元，並撥款 125 億美元用於延長和擴大電動車稅收抵免計畫。

Biden's latest budget request proposes $51 billion for the Department of Energy, encompassing funds for clean energy jobs, international climate finance, and the deployment of clean energy on federal lands.

拜登最新的預算請求提議為能源部提供 510 億美元，包括用於清潔能源工作、國際氣候融資以及在聯邦土地上部署清潔能源的資金。

Alongside these substantial investments, Biden has implemented a raft of restrictions. Soon after taking office, he imposed a moratorium on oil and gas leases and recently suspended liquefied natural gas exports, a move that alarmed European allies.

除了這些大量投資之外，拜登還實施了一系列限制。上任後不久，他暫停了石油和天然氣租賃，最近還暫停了液化天然氣出口，此舉令歐洲盟友感到震驚。

"Along with energy production and energy prices, the reliable delivery of energy is crucial," emphasizes Lambermont. "Pipeline approvals are paramount to ensuring that the continued movement of energy meets the country's needs, including maintaining sufficient natural gas for the electric grid and keeping oil flowing."

「除了能源生產和能源價格之外，可靠的能源輸送也至關重要，」蘭伯蒙特強調。 “管道審批對於確保能源的持續流動滿足國家的需求至關重要，包括為電網維持足夠的天然氣並保持石油流動。”

All of the Above Conundrum

所有上述難題

Biden's mixed messaging on energy production has led to an "all of the above" approach that has frustrated all sides. While he seeks to balance the need for energy security with climate goals, he has fallen short of satisfying either constituency.

拜登在能源生產方面的混合訊息導致了「上述所有」的做法，令各方感到沮喪。雖然他尋求平衡能源安全的需求和氣候目標，但他未能滿足任何一個選民的要求。

"We are an 'all of the above' country in many ways," remarks Senator John Hickenlooper (D-CO). "But is that sufficient? Ultimately, we need to determine how we transition to a clean energy future."

「在很多方面，我們都是一個『以上所有』的國家，」參議員約翰·希肯盧珀 (D-CO) 說道。 “但這足夠了嗎？最終，我們需要確定如何過渡到清潔能源的未來。”

Biden's reluctance to discuss energy production has drawn criticism from Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV), a frequent adversary on energy issues. West Virginia heavily relies on coal production, which Democrats are eager to phase out. Manchin has sarcastically praised Biden's all-of-the-above strategy, urging him to amplify its messaging.

拜登不願討論能源生產，引起了西維吉尼亞州民主黨參議員喬·曼欽(Joe Manchin)的批評，他是能源問題上的常見對手。西維吉尼亞州嚴重依賴煤炭生產，民主黨人渴望逐步淘汰煤炭生產。曼欽諷刺地讚揚了拜登的上述所有策略，並敦促他放大其訊息。

"You won't hear about our historic energy production on TV, on social media, at Democratic campaign events — or from many administration aides," he wrote in an op-ed. "As a result of these bills, there has never been a better time to invest in American energy."

他在一篇專欄文章中寫道：“你不會在電視、社交媒體、民主黨競選活動中或從許多政府助手那裡聽到我們歷史性的能源生產。” “由於這些法案的實施，現在是投資美國能源的最佳時機。”

Election-Year Quandary

選舉年的困境

As the November election draws near, Biden will face mounting pressure to explain why energy prices continue to escalate despite abundant production. Whether he chooses to force companies to further deplete reserves or hinder the construction of new pipelines and transportation infrastructure, prices are likely to maintain their upward trajectory.

隨著 11 月大選的臨近，拜登將面臨越來越大的壓力，需要解釋為什麼儘管產量充足，但能源價格仍持續上漲。無論他選擇迫使企業進一步耗盡儲備，還是阻礙新管道和運輸基礎設施的建設，價格都可能保持上漲趨勢。

"Biden's dilemma is that he wants to claim credit for any economic improvements while simultaneously pursuing transformative change in the name of climate change," says Lambermont. "He doesn't want to acknowledge high energy production now because it conflicts with his desired narrative."

蘭伯蒙特說：“拜登的困境在於，他希望將任何經濟改善歸功於他，同時以氣候變遷的名義追求變革。” “他現在不想承認高能源產量，因為這與他想要的敘述相衝突。”

Biden's energy strategy has become a complex balancing act, with potential electoral consequences. By neglecting his administration's energy accomplishments, he risks alienating voters concerned about energy security and rising costs. Yet, by embracing his climate-friendly stance, he risks further alienating those who favor domestic energy production. The upcoming election will serve as a referendum on Biden's energy policy and the extent to which he can reconcile these competing priorities.

拜登的能源策略已成為一項複雜的平衡行為，具有潛在的選舉後果。由於忽視了他的政府在能源領域的成就，他可能會疏遠那些擔心能源安全和成本上升的選民。然而，透過擁抱氣候友善立場，他可能會進一步疏遠那些支持國內能源生產的人。即將到來的選舉將成為對拜登能源政策以及他能在多大程度上協調這些相互競爭的優先事項的公投。