聯準會暗示降息放緩，亞洲股市下滑，美元徘徊在兩年高點附近

聯準會的強硬立場導致華爾街大幅拋售，並波及亞洲市場。 MSCI 日本以外亞太地區最廣泛股票指數下跌 1.6%

Asian stocks slid on Thursday, and the U.S. dollar hovered near a two-year peak after the Federal Reserve signaled a slowdown in rate cuts for 2025, while the Japanese yen weakened after the Bank of Japan held interest rates steady.

亞洲股市週四下跌，聯準會暗示2025年降息放緩後，美元徘徊在兩年高點附近，日本央行維持利率穩定後，日圓走軟。

The hawkish stance from the Fed led to a sharp selloff on Wall Street, which carried over to Asian markets. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan dropped 1.6%, with tech-heavy Taiwan stocks falling 1.2% and Australian shares down nearly 2%.

聯準會的強硬立場導致華爾街大幅拋售，並波及亞洲市場。 MSCI 除日本以外的亞太股市指數下跌 1.6%，其中以科技股為主的台灣股市下跌 1.2%，澳洲股市下跌近 2%。

The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged more than 1,000 points on Wednesday, reflecting investor concerns over the Fed future plans. This somber market sentiment is likely to carry over to Europe, where Eurostoxx 50 futures fell 1.5%, and major indexes in Germany and France slid by 1.2% and 1%, respectively.

道瓊工業指數週三暴跌逾千點，反映出投資人對聯準會未來計畫的擔憂。這種憂鬱的市場情緒可能會延續到歐洲，歐洲斯托克 50 指數期貨下跌 1.5%，德國和法國主要股指分別下跌 1.2% 和 1%。

The Japanese yen touched a one-month low of 155.48 per dollar after the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave rates unchanged. The yen, which is down over 8% against the dollar this year, has been under pressure from a strong U.S. dollar and the widening interest rate gap between Japan and other major economies. It is set for a fourth consecutive year of decline.

日本央行決定維持利率不變後，日圓觸及1美元兌155.48日圓的一個月低點。今年日圓兌美元匯率下跌超過8%，受到美元走強以及日本與其他主要經濟體利差擴大的壓力。這將是連續第四年下降。

Investors are now looking to comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to gauge the timing and extent of any future rate hikes. The market is currently pricing in 46 basis points of hikes from the BOJ by the end of 2025. Ueda is expected to hold a press conference at 0630 GMT to clarify the decision.

投資人現在正在關注日本央行行長上田一夫的評論，以判斷未來升息的時機和程度。目前市場預計日本央行將在 2025 年底前升息 46 個基點。

The Fed’s more cautious stance, coupled with the BOJ steady policy, underscores the challenges facing the global economy as President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take office. Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that some officials are concerned about the potential impact of Trump’s policies, such as higher tariffs and tax cuts, on inflation and interest rates.

聯準會更謹慎的立場，加上日本央行的穩定政策，凸顯了當選總統川普準備就職之際全球經濟面臨的挑戰。聯準會主席鮑威爾指出，一些官員擔心川普政策（例如提高關稅和減稅）對通膨和利率的潛在影響。

“The risks that are clearly inherent here, and left partially unsaid, are what the Trump administration could bring to the table in terms of inflationary pressure,” said Rob Thompson, macro rates strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場(RBC Capital Markets)宏觀利率策略師羅布·湯普森(Rob Thompson)表示，「這裡明顯固有的、部分未提及的風險是川普政府可能在通膨壓力方面帶來的風險。 」

The Fed shift towards caution sent shockwaves through markets. While the U.S. central bank lowered rates as expected, Powell’s remarks suggesting a slower pace of future cuts led to a significant market pullback. The Fed now projects only two quarter-percentage-point cuts by the end of 2025, half of what was anticipated in September.

聯準會轉向謹慎的態度給市場帶來了衝擊。儘管聯準會如預期降息，鮑威爾暗示未來降息步伐放緩的言論導致市場大幅回檔。聯準會目前預計到 2025 年底僅降息兩個四分之一個百分點，僅為 9 月預期的一半。

“The Fed was more hawkish than we anticipated, but today’s shift in policy guidance reinforces our view of a long pause by the Fed at the start of 2025,” said Prashant Newnaha, senior Asia-Pacific rates strategist at TD Securities.

道明證券(TD Securities)高級亞太利率策略師Prashant Newnaha表示：“美聯儲比我們預期的更加鷹派，但今天政策指引的轉變強化了我們對美聯儲在2025年初將長期暫停的看法。”

The expectation of fewer Fed rate cuts boosted the U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the currency against six rivals, pushing it to its highest level since November 2022. The index was last at 108.08 on Thursday.

聯準會降息幅度較小的預期提振了衡量美元兌六種貨幣的美元指數，將其推升至 2022 年 11 月以來的最高水平。

U.S. 10-year Treasury yields reached a seven-month high of 4.524% on Wednesday, and were last at 4.514%.

美國10年期公債殖利率週三觸及7個月高點4.524%，最新報4.514%。

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin briefly dipped below the $100,000 level after Powell stated that the U.S. central bank has no intention of engaging in government efforts to accumulate large amounts of Bitcoin.

在加密貨幣市場上，鮑威爾表示聯準會無意參與政府累積大量比特幣的行動後，比特幣一度跌破10萬美元大關。

Meanwhile, the British pound held steady at $1.25835 ahead of the Bank of England’s policy decision later in the day, where no change in interest rates is expected despite signs of a slowing economy.

同時，在英國央行當天稍晚做出政策決定之前，英鎊匯率穩定在1.25835美元，儘管有經濟放緩的跡象，但預計利率不會改變。

Gold prices rose by 0.8% to $2,609 per ounce, while oil prices dipped due to concerns over demand.

金價上漲 0.8%，至每盎司 2,609 美元，而油價因需求擔憂而下跌。