ar of Great Changes.output：標題：2025 年以太坊和山寨幣市場展望：專家分享他們的預測

近日，PANews 在 Twitter Space 上進行了主題為「年終專題空間：以太坊和山寨幣市場展望」的線上採訪

be a year of adjustment. Although the market will experience ups and downs, it will not be as extreme as in 2024. In addition, there may be some regulatory measures to curb excessive speculation.

是調整的一年。雖然市場會經歷大起大落，但不會像2024年那麼極端。

output: A group of industry veterans gathered on Twitter Space to discuss the future potential of Ethereum and the altcoin market and shared their insights on topics ranging from the upcoming Ethereum upgrades to the timing of the next altcoin season. Here's a summary of their conversation:

產出：一群業界資深人士聚集在 Twitter Space 上討論以太坊和山寨幣市場的未來潛力，並分享了他們對主題的見解，從即將到來的以太坊升級到下一個山寨幣季節的時間安排。以下是他們談話的摘要：

Despite being very active in 2024, Ethereum faced doubts due to its performance relative to Bitcoin and Solana. However, these doubts stem from differing interpretations of events, such as the foundation selling coins, which can be viewed positively or negatively.

儘管以太坊在 2024 年非常活躍，但由於其相對於比特幣和 Solana 的表現而面臨質疑。然而，這些疑慮源自於對事件的不同解讀，例如基金會賣幣，可以正面看待，也可以負面看待。

Ethereum's performance in 2024 can be divided into two stages: H1 was driven by the NFT bull market and the launch of L2 projects, while H2 saw a slowdown in application activity and a lack of new narratives.

以太坊在 2024 年的表現可以分為兩個階段：H1 受到 NFT 牛市和 L2 項目推出的推動，而 H2 則看到應用活動放緩且缺乏新的敘事。

Regarding L2 development, ZK narratives were once popular, but after multiple large ZK projects were launched and airdropped tokens, there was negative news. However, Ethereum is still promoting ZK applications in two directions: improving technology and reducing costs.

關於L2發展，ZK敘事曾一度盛行，但多個大型ZK項目上線空投代幣後，卻傳來負面消息。不過，以太坊仍在兩個方向推動ZK應用：改善技術和降低成本。

In terms of altcoin ETFs, Litecoin, Solana, Ripple, and other projects applied for ETFs. If Trump takes office, their ETFs may be approved. However, will they repeat the lackluster market performance of Ethereum ETF?

山寨幣ETF方面，萊特幣、Solana、Ripple等項目申請了ETF。如果川普上任，他們的ETF可能會獲得批准。然而，他們會重蹈以太坊ETF慘淡的市場表現嗎？

Overall, Ethereum's leading position remains solid, mainly reflected in market capitalization and application ecology. As for the ETF approval process of other projects, it is a gradual process that requires the market and regulators to adapt together.

整體來看，以太坊的領先地位依然穩固，主要體現在市值和應用生態。至於其他項目的ETF審批過程，則是一個漸進的過程，需要市場和監管機構共同適應。

Regarding the changing position of Ethereum as the leader of altcoins, there is a clear gap between market expectations and reality. Previously, the market generally believed that the approval of ETFs would bring a large amount of incremental funds, driving the entire Ethereum ecosystem and related altcoins to rise.

對於以太坊作為山寨幣領導者地位的變化，市場預期與現實有明顯差距。此前，市場普遍認為ETF的核准將帶來大量增量資金，帶動整個以太坊生態及相關山寨幣上漲。

However, the reality is that in the U.S. stock market, cryptocurrency ETFs may only be regarded as a type of small and medium-sized technology stocks. Judging from the market performance since November, funds have not flowed along the expected path of " Bitcoin ETF → Ethereum ETF → Altcoin ETF ". Instead, projects such as XRP and Stellar (XLM), which have been deeply rooted in the US market for a long time, have performed more prominently.

然而現實情況是，在美國股市，加密貨幣ETF可能只能被視為中小型科技股的一種。從11月以來的市場表現來看，資金並沒有沿著「比特幣ETF→以太坊ETF→山寨幣ETF」的預期路徑流動。反而是長期深耕美國市場的XRP、Stellar（XLM）等項目表現較為突出。

After the Ethereum ETF was approved, its fund inflow performance was not as good as the Bitcoin ETF. But recently, we have seen that the fund inflow of the Ethereum ETF is gradually increasing. I would like to ask you, what is the reason behind this? Is it possible that the fund inflow of the Ethereum ETF will exceed that of the Bitcoin ETF in the future?

以太坊ETF核准後，資金流入表現不如比特幣ETF。但最近，我們看到以太坊ETF的資金流入正在逐漸增加。我想請問一下，這背後的原因是什麼？未來以太坊ETF的資金流入是否有可能超過比特幣ETF？

From the perspective of investor psychology, when many people first enter the cryptocurrency market, their first reaction is often "Bitcoin is too expensive, I want to buy something cheaper", and then they choose Ethereum or other currencies. This is a very common psychology.

從投資者心理來看，很多人剛進入加密貨幣市場時，第一個反應往往是“比特幣太貴了，我想買點便宜點的”，然後選擇以太坊或其他貨幣。這是一種很常見的心理。

Based on this observation, I believe there are three key factors that will influence the future development of Ethereum ETFs:

基於這個觀察，我認為影響以太坊ETF未來發展的關鍵因素有三：

Although the inflow of funds to Ethereum ETFs may still be limited in the short term, based on these three reasons, I am optimistic about its long-term development, but I just need to give the market some time.

雖然短期內以太坊ETF的資金流入可能仍然有限，但基於這三個原因，我看好它的長期發展，但我只是需要給市場一些時間。

From the perspective of trading strategy, I see two possible capital flows:

從交易策略的角度來看，我看到兩種可能的資金流向：

The capital inflow of Ethereum ETF will continue to increase next year, but it is unlikely to exceed that of Bitcoin ETF.

明年以太坊ETF的資金流入將繼續增加，但不太可能超過比特幣ETF。

The Ethereum ecosystem still seems to be focusing on infrastructure and needs to shift to the application level. In addition, many investors are paying attention to when the new round of altcoin season will come.

以太坊生態系統似乎仍專注於基礎設施，需要轉向應用層面。此外，不少投資者也在關注新一輪山寨幣季節何時到來。

This is an interesting question. Although Ethereum has been developed for more than ten years and Solana's performance is quite good, there is still a lot of room for improvement from an infrastructure perspective.

這是一個有趣的問題。儘管以太坊已經發展了十多年，Solana 的性能也相當不錯，但從基礎設施角度來看，仍然有很大的改進空間。

When it comes to the application level, the new generation of applications will inevitably develop with the improvement of infrastructure. For example, look at the evolution of Uniswap: from V1 to V4, each upgrade is adapting to the new infrastructure capabilities, taking into account new features such as performance optimization, multi-Layer2 deployment, cross-application calls, and automation.

說到應用層面，新一代的應用必然會隨著基礎設施的完善而發展。例如，看看 Uniswap 的演進過程：從 V1 到 V4，每次升級都是為了適應新的基礎設施能力，兼顧效能最佳化、多層部署、跨應用程式呼叫、自動化等新功能。

I think the copycat season is definitely coming, and it’s usually accompanied by:

我認為山寨季肯定會到來，通常伴隨著：

The key to this question lies in how to define "copycat". This definition has undergone significant evolution in the past few rounds of bull markets:

這個問題的關鍵在於如何定義「山寨」。這個定義在過去幾輪牛市中經歷了重大演變：

In fact, according to the new definition, the alt season has quietly begun. It is like the great waves washing away the sands. In each bull market, new alt projects will replace the old ones and grab attention and funds. Investors need to accept this evolution instead of sticking to the past cognition.

事實上，根據新的定義，山寨幣季節已經悄悄開始。就像巨浪沖走沙子一樣。在每次牛市中，新的替代項目都會取代舊的項目並吸引註意力和資金。投資人需要接受這種演變，而不是固守過去的認知。

The current crypto market has become more segmented and mature. We should analyze it according to different sectors just like we do with the traditional financial market:

目前的加密市場已經變得更加細分和成熟。我們應該像傳統金融市場一樣，分產業來分析：

It is

這是