ar of Great Changes.output：标题：2025 年以太坊和山寨币市场展望：专家分享他们的预测

近日，PANews 在 Twitter Space 上进行了主题为“年终专题空间：以太坊和山寨币市场展望”的在线采访

be a year of adjustment. Although the market will experience ups and downs, it will not be as extreme as in 2024. In addition, there may be some regulatory measures to curb excessive speculation.

是调整的一年。虽然市场会经历大起大落，但不会像2024年那样极端。此外，可能还会有一些监管措施来抑制过度投机。

output: A group of industry veterans gathered on Twitter Space to discuss the future potential of Ethereum and the altcoin market and shared their insights on topics ranging from the upcoming Ethereum upgrades to the timing of the next altcoin season. Here's a summary of their conversation:

产出：一群行业资深人士聚集在 Twitter Space 上讨论以太坊和山寨币市场的未来潜力，并分享了他们对主题的见解，从即将到来的以太坊升级到下一个山寨币季节的时间安排。以下是他们谈话的摘要：

Despite being very active in 2024, Ethereum faced doubts due to its performance relative to Bitcoin and Solana. However, these doubts stem from differing interpretations of events, such as the foundation selling coins, which can be viewed positively or negatively.

尽管以太坊在 2024 年非常活跃，但由于其相对于比特币和 Solana 的表现而面临质疑。然而，这些疑虑源于对事件的不同解读，比如基金会卖币，可以正面看待，也可以负面看待。

Ethereum's performance in 2024 can be divided into two stages: H1 was driven by the NFT bull market and the launch of L2 projects, while H2 saw a slowdown in application activity and a lack of new narratives.

以太坊在 2024 年的表现可以分为两个阶段：H1 受到 NFT 牛市和 L2 项目推出的推动，而 H2 则看到应用活动放缓且缺乏新的叙事。

Regarding L2 development, ZK narratives were once popular, but after multiple large ZK projects were launched and airdropped tokens, there was negative news. However, Ethereum is still promoting ZK applications in two directions: improving technology and reducing costs.

关于L2发展，ZK叙事曾一度盛行，但多个大型ZK项目上线并空投代币后，却传来负面消息。不过，以太坊仍然在两个方向推动ZK应用：改进技术和降低成本。

In terms of altcoin ETFs, Litecoin, Solana, Ripple, and other projects applied for ETFs. If Trump takes office, their ETFs may be approved. However, will they repeat the lackluster market performance of Ethereum ETF?

山寨币ETF方面，莱特币、Solana、Ripple等项目申请了ETF。如果特朗普上任，他们的ETF可能会获得批准。然而，他们会重蹈以太坊ETF惨淡的市场表现吗？

Overall, Ethereum's leading position remains solid, mainly reflected in market capitalization and application ecology. As for the ETF approval process of other projects, it is a gradual process that requires the market and regulators to adapt together.

总体来看，以太坊的领先地位依然稳固，主要体现在市值和应用生态上。至于其他项目的ETF审批过程，是一个渐进的过程，需要市场和监管机构共同适应。

Regarding the changing position of Ethereum as the leader of altcoins, there is a clear gap between market expectations and reality. Previously, the market generally believed that the approval of ETFs would bring a large amount of incremental funds, driving the entire Ethereum ecosystem and related altcoins to rise.

对于以太坊作为山寨币领导者地位的变化，市场预期与现实存在明显差距。此前，市场普遍认为ETF的获批将带来大量增量资金，带动整个以太坊生态及相关山寨币上涨。

However, the reality is that in the U.S. stock market, cryptocurrency ETFs may only be regarded as a type of small and medium-sized technology stocks. Judging from the market performance since November, funds have not flowed along the expected path of " Bitcoin ETF → Ethereum ETF → Altcoin ETF ". Instead, projects such as XRP and Stellar (XLM), which have been deeply rooted in the US market for a long time, have performed more prominently.

然而现实情况是，在美国股市，加密货币ETF可能只能被视为中小型科技股的一种。从11月份以来的市场表现来看，资金并没有沿着“比特币ETF→以太坊ETF→山寨币ETF”的预期路径流动。反而是长期深耕美国市场的XRP、Stellar（XLM）等项目表现更为突出。

After the Ethereum ETF was approved, its fund inflow performance was not as good as the Bitcoin ETF. But recently, we have seen that the fund inflow of the Ethereum ETF is gradually increasing. I would like to ask you, what is the reason behind this? Is it possible that the fund inflow of the Ethereum ETF will exceed that of the Bitcoin ETF in the future?

以太坊ETF获批后，其资金流入表现并不如比特币ETF。但最近，我们看到以太坊ETF的资金流入正在逐渐增加。我想请问一下，这背后的原因是什么？未来以太坊ETF的资金流入是否有可能超过比特币ETF？

From the perspective of investor psychology, when many people first enter the cryptocurrency market, their first reaction is often "Bitcoin is too expensive, I want to buy something cheaper", and then they choose Ethereum or other currencies. This is a very common psychology.

从投资者心理来看，很多人刚进入加密货币市场时，第一反应往往是“比特币太贵了，我想买点便宜点的”，然后选择以太坊或者其他货币。这是一种很常见的心理。

Based on this observation, I believe there are three key factors that will influence the future development of Ethereum ETFs:

基于这一观察，我认为影响以太坊ETF未来发展的关键因素有以下三个：

Although the inflow of funds to Ethereum ETFs may still be limited in the short term, based on these three reasons, I am optimistic about its long-term development, but I just need to give the market some time.

虽然短期内以太坊ETF的资金流入可能仍然有限，但基于这三个原因，我看好它的长期发展，但我只是需要给市场一些时间。

From the perspective of trading strategy, I see two possible capital flows:

从交易策略的角度来看，我看到两种可能的资金流向：

The capital inflow of Ethereum ETF will continue to increase next year, but it is unlikely to exceed that of Bitcoin ETF.

明年以太坊ETF的资金流入将继续增加，但不太可能超过比特币ETF。

The Ethereum ecosystem still seems to be focusing on infrastructure and needs to shift to the application level. In addition, many investors are paying attention to when the new round of altcoin season will come.

以太坊生态系统似乎仍然专注于基础设施，需要转向应用层面。此外，不少投资者也在关注新一轮山寨币季节何时到来。

This is an interesting question. Although Ethereum has been developed for more than ten years and Solana's performance is quite good, there is still a lot of room for improvement from an infrastructure perspective.

这是一个有趣的问题。虽然以太坊已经发展了十多年，Solana 的性能也相当不错，但从基础设施的角度来看，仍然有很大的改进空间。

When it comes to the application level, the new generation of applications will inevitably develop with the improvement of infrastructure. For example, look at the evolution of Uniswap: from V1 to V4, each upgrade is adapting to the new infrastructure capabilities, taking into account new features such as performance optimization, multi-Layer2 deployment, cross-application calls, and automation.

说到应用层面，新一代的应用必然会随着基础设施的完善而发展。例如，看看 Uniswap 的演进过程：从 V1 到 V4，每次升级都是为了适应新的基础设施能力，兼顾性能优化、多层部署、跨应用调用、自动化等新特性。

I think the copycat season is definitely coming, and it’s usually accompanied by:

我认为山寨季肯定会到来，并且通常伴随着：

The key to this question lies in how to define "copycat". This definition has undergone significant evolution in the past few rounds of bull markets:

这个问题的关键在于如何定义“山寨”。这个定义在过去几轮牛市中经历了重大演变：

In fact, according to the new definition, the alt season has quietly begun. It is like the great waves washing away the sands. In each bull market, new alt projects will replace the old ones and grab attention and funds. Investors need to accept this evolution instead of sticking to the past cognition.

事实上，根据新的定义，山寨币季节已经悄然开始。就像巨浪冲走沙子一样。在每次牛市中，新的替代项目都会取代旧项目并吸引注意力和资金。投资者需要接受这种演变，而不是固守过去的认知。

The current crypto market has become more segmented and mature. We should analyze it according to different sectors just like we do with the traditional financial market:

当前的加密市场已经变得更加细分和成熟。我们应该像传统金融市场一样，分行业来分析：

It is

这是