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GSR 的 Brian Rudick 討論了最近的市場崩潰、高漲的牛市原則和消退的風險如何推動比特幣漲至 100 萬美元,以及為什麼最近的下跌是一份禮物
A market meltdown hit traditional markets last week, as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to counter the falling yen, which caused traders to unwind yen-carry trade positions.
上週,市場崩潰襲擊了傳統市場,日本央行提高利率以應對日圓貶值,導致交易員平倉日圓套利交易頭寸。
Secondly, there were increasing worries around U.S. economic growth following a series of disappointing releases, such as the latest employment report.
其次,在最新就業報告等一系列令人失望的數據發布後,人們對美國經濟成長的擔憂日益加劇。
Finally, fears of a wider war in the Middle East arose after Iran vowed retaliation for the assassination of a Hamas political leader.
最後,在伊朗發誓對暗殺哈馬斯政治領袖進行報復後,人們擔心中東會爆發更廣泛的戰爭。
Such financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty caused widespread panic, resulting in, for example, Japan’s Nikkei recording its largest single-day drop since 1987 and many large U.S. tech stocks falling by double digits over several days, just to name a few.
這種金融、經濟和地緣政治的不確定性引發了廣泛的恐慌,導致日本日經指數創下1987 年以來的最大單日跌幅,許多美國大型科技股在幾天內下跌了兩位數,僅舉幾例。
Cryptocurrencies, which would have been expected to fall by a greater amount than equities anyway, had their own negative drivers.
無論如何,加密貨幣的跌幅預計會比股票更大,但它也有其自身的負面驅動因素。
These included impending Mt. Gox fallout, mixed spot digital asset ETF flows, a rising appreciation that pro-crypto Trump candidacy isn’t a lock and reports of a large market maker dumping hundreds of millions of dollars of crypto during the panic’s peak.
其中包括即將到來的Mt. Gox 影響、混合現貨數位資產ETF 流動、人們日益認識到支持加密貨幣的川普候選資格並非鎖定,以及有報道稱一家大型做市商在恐慌高峰期拋售了數億美元的加密貨幣。
All in, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) touched $49,200, down 30% from just a week earlier, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell below $2,200, dropping 35% over that time.
總而言之,比特幣 (CRYPTO: BTC) 觸及 49,200 美元,較一週前下跌 30%,而以太幣 (CRYPTO: ETH) 跌破 2,200 美元,同期下跌 35%。
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您正在閱讀《加密多空》,這是我們為專業投資者提供的每週通訊,其中包含見解、新聞和分析。在此註冊,每週三將其發送到您的收件匣。
Towering Bull Tenets and Fading Risks Offer Chance at $1m BTC
高聳的牛市原則和消退的風險為 100 萬美元的 BTC 提供了機會
Despite the downturn, we remain as convinced as ever in the bull thesis, with its core tenets towering in place:
儘管經濟低迷,我們仍然一如既往地堅信牛市論點,其核心原則依然堅定:
Global Liquidity vs. Bitcoin Price, Year-Over-Year Growth
全球流動性與比特幣價格,較去年同期成長
Source: The People’s Bank of China, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investing.com, Glassnode, GSR
資料來源:中國人民銀行、聯準會、歐洲央行、日本銀行、Investing.com、Glassnode、GSR
Note: Converts local currency M2 to US dollars and aggregates before taking year-over-year growth. Note that different countries may define M2 slightly differently, but the general concept of M2 is that of a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and non-cash assets that can easily be converted into cash.
註:在計算年成長之前,先將本幣 M2 轉換為美元並彙總。請注意,不同國家對M2的定義可能略有不同,但M2的一般概念是貨幣供應量的衡量標準,包括現金、支票存款和易於轉換為現金的非現金資產。
Oh, and these near-term bull tenets say nothing of crypto’s supreme driver, which is what it will, over decades, ultimately become.
哦,這些近期的多頭原則並沒有提到加密貨幣的最高驅動力,而這正是加密貨幣在幾十年後最終將成為的樣子。
And, while there may always be a black swan event, it’s hard to identify many large and likely risks. For example:
而且,雖然黑天鵝事件可能總是會發生,但很難識別許多重大且可能的風險。例如:
All in, should the bull tenets materialize, risks fade, and crypto make strides towards its endgame – perhaps with a dapp that goes mainstream or Bitcoin/Ethereum’s adoption as the world settlement layer – we believe Bitcoin would easily surpass $1m, skewing the risk-reward exceedingly positive at just about any odds of the above occurring.
總而言之,如果牛市原則成為現實,風險消退,加密貨幣向其最終階段邁進——也許是隨著dapp 成為主流,或者比特幣/以太坊被採用作為世界結算層——我們相信比特幣將輕鬆超過100萬美元,從而傾斜風險- 幾乎任何上述情況發生的可能性都會得到非常積極的獎勵。
Imagine, instead of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” gold becomes relegated to “physical Bitcoin.”
想像一下,黃金不再是“數位黃金”,而是降級為“實體比特幣”。
The Dip as a Gift - Time to Buy
作為禮物的蘸醬 - 是時候購買了
Ultimately, we see the recent dip as a gift, offering a solid entry point and pushing crypto to its greatest risk-reward in years.
最終,我們將最近的下跌視為一份禮物,提供了一個堅實的切入點,並將加密貨幣推向多年來最大的風險回報。
Indeed, ETH is lower than prior to the SEC’s stunning about face on the Ethereum ETFs, while Bitcoin is down from prior to the U.S. changing its stance towards crypto.
事實上,ETH 的價格低於 SEC 對以太坊 ETF 做出驚人轉變之前的價格,而比特幣的價格則低於美國改變對加密貨幣立場之前的價格。
Yes, we’re in a very different macro environment than before, but it’s hard to argue these catalysts are priced in any major way.
是的,我們正處於一個與以前截然不同的宏觀環境,但很難說這些催化劑的定價有任何主要方式。
So while 30%+ drawdowns are indeed disconcerting, they create compelling opportunities.
因此,雖然 30% 以上的回撤確實令人不安,但它們創造了令人信服的機會。
And while it’d be easy to come away negative after the events of last week, using price to inform one’s view of the underlying fundamentals is a recipe to buy high and sell low.
雖然上週的事件發生後很容易出現負面情緒,但利用價格來了解基本面是高買低賣的良方。
Instead, the best analysts check whether the cause of any adverse price movements invalidated their thesis, and if not, they grow the position given the now-much-greater upside.
相反,最好的分析師會檢查任何不利價格變動的原因是否使他們的論點無效,如果沒有,他們就會在目前更大的上漲空間的情況下增加頭寸。
So with the bull tenets squarely in place as risks fade, a legit chance of $1m Bitcoin, and greater potential upside after the recent dip, the risk-reward has rarely looked so compelling.
因此,隨著風險消退,多頭原則完全到位,比特幣價格達到 100 萬美元的合法機會,以及近期下跌後更大的潛在上漲空間,風險回報很少看起來如此引人注目。
Time to BTFD.
是時候去BTFD了。
The views expressed in this column are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of CoinDesk, Inc. or its owners and affiliates.
本專欄所表達的觀點僅代表作者的觀點,不一定反映 CoinDesk, Inc. 或其所有者和附屬公司的觀點。
CoinDesk is an independent operating subsidiary of Digital Currency Group, which also owns Grayscale, Genesis Trading, BlockFi, Deribit, Brave Software, Chain, Dapper Labs, Flow, Helium, Messari, Nifty Gateway, OpenSea, Polychain, Roll, Sorare, Sprout, Thebes, Unstoppable Domains and Variant.
CoinDesk 是數位貨幣集團的獨立營運子公司,該集團還擁有Grayscale、Genesis Trading、BlockFi、Deribit、Brave Software、Chain、Dapper Labs、Flow、Helium、Messari、Nifty Gateway、OpenSea、Polychain、Rollut 、底比斯,不可阻擋的領域和變體。
This article is provided for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be, and should not be taken as, legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
本文僅供參考,無意也不應被視為法律、稅務、投資、財務或其他建議。
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