崩溃的剖析（以及 BTFD）

GSR 的 Brian Rudick 讨论了最近的市场崩溃、高涨的牛市原则和消退的风险如何推动比特币涨至 100 万美元，以及为什么最近的下跌是一份礼物

A market meltdown hit traditional markets last week, as the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to counter the falling yen, which caused traders to unwind yen-carry trade positions.

上周，市场崩溃袭击了传统市场，日本央行提高利率以应对日元贬值，导致交易员平仓日元套利交易头寸。

Secondly, there were increasing worries around U.S. economic growth following a series of disappointing releases, such as the latest employment report.

其次，在最新就业报告等一系列令人失望的数据发布后，人们对美国经济增长的担忧日益加剧。

Finally, fears of a wider war in the Middle East arose after Iran vowed retaliation for the assassination of a Hamas political leader.

最后，在伊朗发誓对暗杀哈马斯政治领导人进行报复后，人们担心中东会爆发更广泛的战争。

Such financial, economic and geopolitical uncertainty caused widespread panic, resulting in, for example, Japan’s Nikkei recording its largest single-day drop since 1987 and many large U.S. tech stocks falling by double digits over several days, just to name a few.

这种金融、经济和地缘政治的不确定性引发了广泛的恐慌，导致日本日经指数创下 1987 年以来的最大单日跌幅，许多美国大型科技股在几天内下跌了两位数，仅举几例。

Cryptocurrencies, which would have been expected to fall by a greater amount than equities anyway, had their own negative drivers.

无论如何，加密货币的跌幅预计会比股票更大，但它也有其自身的负面驱动因素。

These included impending Mt. Gox fallout, mixed spot digital asset ETF flows, a rising appreciation that pro-crypto Trump candidacy isn’t a lock and reports of a large market maker dumping hundreds of millions of dollars of crypto during the panic’s peak.

其中包括即将到来的 Mt. Gox 影响、混合现货数字资产 ETF 流动、人们日益认识到支持加密货币的特朗普候选资格并不是锁定的，以及有报道称一家大型做市商在恐慌高峰期抛售了数亿美元的加密货币。

All in, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) touched $49,200, down 30% from just a week earlier, while Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH) fell below $2,200, dropping 35% over that time.

总而言之，比特币 (CRYPTO: BTC) 触及 49,200 美元，较一周前下跌 30%，而以太坊 (CRYPTO: ETH) 跌破 2,200 美元，同期下跌 35%。

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Towering Bull Tenets and Fading Risks Offer Chance at $1m BTC

高耸的牛市原则和消退的风险为 100 万美元的 BTC 提供了机会

Despite the downturn, we remain as convinced as ever in the bull thesis, with its core tenets towering in place:

尽管经济低迷，我们仍然一如既往地坚信牛市论点，其核心原则依然坚定：

Global Liquidity vs. Bitcoin Price, Year-Over-Year Growth

全球流动性与比特币价格，同比增长

Source: The People’s Bank of China, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of Japan, Investing.com, Glassnode, GSR

资料来源：中国人民银行、美联储、欧洲央行、日本银行、Investing.com、Glassnode、GSR

Note: Converts local currency M2 to US dollars and aggregates before taking year-over-year growth. Note that different countries may define M2 slightly differently, but the general concept of M2 is that of a measure of the money supply that includes cash, checking deposits, and non-cash assets that can easily be converted into cash.

注：在计算同比增长之前，先将本币 M2 转换为美元并汇总。请注意，不同国家对M2的定义可能略有不同，但M2的一般概念是货币供应量的衡量标准，包括现金、支票存款和易于转换为现金的非现金资产。

Oh, and these near-term bull tenets say nothing of crypto’s supreme driver, which is what it will, over decades, ultimately become.

哦，这些近期的牛市原则并没有提到加密货币的最高驱动力，而这正是加密货币在几十年后最终将成为的样子。

And, while there may always be a black swan event, it’s hard to identify many large and likely risks. For example:

而且，虽然黑天鹅事件可能总会发生，但很难识别许多重大且可能的风险。例如：

All in, should the bull tenets materialize, risks fade, and crypto make strides towards its endgame – perhaps with a dapp that goes mainstream or Bitcoin/Ethereum’s adoption as the world settlement layer – we believe Bitcoin would easily surpass $1m, skewing the risk-reward exceedingly positive at just about any odds of the above occurring.

总而言之，如果牛市原则成为现实，风险消退，加密货币向其最终阶段迈进——也许是随着 dapp 成为主流，或者比特币/以太坊被采用作为世界结算层——我们相信比特币将轻松超过 100 万美元，从而倾斜风险- 几乎任何上述情况发生的可能性都会得到非常积极的奖励。

Imagine, instead of Bitcoin as “digital gold,” gold becomes relegated to “physical Bitcoin.”

想象一下，黄金不再是“数字黄金”，而是降级为“实物比特币”。

The Dip as a Gift - Time to Buy

作为礼物的蘸酱 - 是时候购买了

Ultimately, we see the recent dip as a gift, offering a solid entry point and pushing crypto to its greatest risk-reward in years.

最终，我们将最近的下跌视为一份礼物，提供了一个坚实的切入点，并将加密货币推向多年来最大的风险回报。

Indeed, ETH is lower than prior to the SEC’s stunning about face on the Ethereum ETFs, while Bitcoin is down from prior to the U.S. changing its stance towards crypto.

事实上，ETH 的价格低于 SEC 对以太坊 ETF 做出惊人转变之前的价格，而比特币的价格则低于美国改变对加密货币立场之前的价格。

Yes, we’re in a very different macro environment than before, but it’s hard to argue these catalysts are priced in any major way.

是的，我们正处于一个与以前截然不同的宏观环境，但很难说这些催化剂的定价有任何主要方式。

So while 30%+ drawdowns are indeed disconcerting, they create compelling opportunities.

因此，虽然 30% 以上的回撤确实令人不安，但它们创造了令人信服的机会。

And while it’d be easy to come away negative after the events of last week, using price to inform one’s view of the underlying fundamentals is a recipe to buy high and sell low.

虽然上周的事件发生后很容易出现负面情绪，但利用价格来了解基本面是高买低卖的良方。

Instead, the best analysts check whether the cause of any adverse price movements invalidated their thesis, and if not, they grow the position given the now-much-greater upside.

相反，最好的分析师会检查任何不利价格变动的原因是否使他们的论点无效，如果没有，他们就会在目前更大的上涨空间的情况下增加头寸。

So with the bull tenets squarely in place as risks fade, a legit chance of $1m Bitcoin, and greater potential upside after the recent dip, the risk-reward has rarely looked so compelling.

因此，随着风险消退，牛市原则完全到位，比特币价格达到 100 万美元的合法机会，以及近期下跌后更大的潜在上涨空间，风险回报很少看起来如此引人注目。

Time to BTFD.

是时候去BTFD了。

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