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加密貨幣新聞文章

由於比特幣的主導地位保持高位且流動性減少,山寨季仍然被推遲

2025/01/10 22:00

在過去 24 小時內,較大的加密貨幣市場幾乎沒有什麼變動,僅上漲了 0.11%。相反,交易量有所下降

由於比特幣的主導地位保持高位且流動性減少,山寨季仍然被推遲

output: Over the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has seen little movement. With a 0.11% gain, the trading volume dropped sharply to $153.08 billion, marking a 3.57% decline. Several major altcoins, including ETH, XRP, and DOGE, fell on the charts too, dropping by 0.81%, 0.54%, and 0.34%, respectively, within the same period.

產出:過去 24 小時內,加密貨幣市場幾乎沒有變動。漲幅為0.11%,成交量大幅下滑至1,530.8億美元,跌幅為3.57%。包括 ETH、XRP 和 DOGE 在內的幾種主要山寨幣也在圖表上下跌,同期分別下跌了 0.81%、0.54% 和 0.34%。

While the market appears to be entering a recovery phase, with assets slowly regaining lost value, new insights suggest that an altseason might remain delayed.

雖然市場似乎正在進入復甦階段,資產慢慢恢復損失的價值,但新的見解表明山寨季可能仍會延遲。

This delay can be attributed to a lack of significant changes in key market metrics, including liquidity flow and overall market sentiment.

這種延遲可歸因於關鍵市場指標缺乏重大變化,包括流動性和整體市場情緒。

An analyst on Twitter highlighted this, stating that altcoins are still in a stalled phase, with limited liquidity flowing into these assets, ultimately delaying the much-anticipated altseason, where altcoins typically see significant upward momentum.

Twitter 上的一位分析師強調了這一點,指出山寨幣仍處於停滯階段,流入這些資產的流動性有限,最終推遲了備受期待的山寨幣季節,而山寨幣通常會在山寨幣季節出現顯著的上漲勢頭。

Charts presented by the analyst revealed that altcoin market capitalization – depicted on the right – has barely surged, remaining only slightly above $1.6 trillion. This is comparable to the peaks observed during the 2021-2022 altcoin rally.

該分析師提供的圖表顯示,山寨幣市值(如右圖所示)幾乎沒有飆升,僅略高於 1.6 兆美元。這與 2021-2022 年山寨幣反彈期間觀察到的峰值相當。

However, Bitcoin exhibited a different trend. Its market capitalization has nearly doubled since hitting its previous all-time high in 2022, now exceeding $2 trillion.

然而,比特幣卻呈現不同的趨勢。自 2022 年創下歷史新高以來,其市值幾乎翻了一番,目前已超過 2 兆美元。

This indicates that the current market cycle is being led by Bitcoin, with the majority of new investment capital being directed towards it, rather than altcoins. This shift can be attributed to the entry of institutional investors and the launch of Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States.

這顯示當前的市場週期由比特幣主導,大部分新投資資本都流向比特幣,而不是山寨幣。這種轉變可歸因於機構投資者的進入以及美國現貨交易所交易基金(ETF)的推出。

The stagnation of altcoin market capitalization suggests that funds are merely rotating between different altcoins, with little to no new liquidity entering the market. If this trend continues, it would mean that the altseason will remain delayed, with altcoins only seeing minor gains or isolated rallies based on prevailing market narratives.

山寨幣市值的停滯顯示資金只是在不同山寨幣之間輪換,幾乎沒有新的流動性進入市場。如果這種趨勢持續下去,這將意味著山寨幣季節將繼續推遲,根據當前的市場敘述,山寨幣只會出現小幅上漲或孤立的反彈。

Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has also seen a sharp decline in liquidity. According to Glassnode’s Aggregate Realized Value Net Position Change metric, which measures liquidity inflows and outflows, liquidity has dropped by 49% over the past month, falling from $134 billion to $68 billion.

同時,更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的流動性也急劇下降。根據 Glassnode 衡量流動性流入和流出的總已實現價值淨部位變化指標,流動性在過去一個月下降了 49%,從 1,340 億美元降至 680 億美元。

This liquidity crunch is evident in the market's overall state, as many altcoins are yet to recover to their previous all-time highs, last reached in late 2024.

這種流動性緊縮在市場的整體狀態中很明顯,因為許多山寨幣尚未恢復到先前的歷史高點(上次達到 2024 年末)。

A key indicator for an altcoin rally has traditionally been a significant decline in Bitcoin dominance, often followed by successive market-wide gains for altcoins.

傳統上,山寨幣上漲的一個關鍵指標是比特幣主導地位的顯著下降,隨後通常是山寨幣在整個市場上的連續上漲。

Bitcoin dominance measures the proportion of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization held by Bitcoin relative to altcoins. When Bitcoin dominance increases, altcoins typically underperform as capital flows back into Bitcoin. This trend is currently evident in the market.

比特幣主導地位衡量的是比特幣相對於山寨幣所持有的加密貨幣總市值的比例。當比特幣的主導地位增強時,隨著資本回流到比特幣,山寨幣通常表現不佳。目前這種趨勢在市場上很明顯。

At press time, Bitcoin dominance on CoinMarketCap stood at 0.5672 – A relatively high value. A drop to around 0.45 would point to a shift in market control towards altcoins, potentially sparking an altcoin rally.

截至發稿時,比特幣在 CoinMarketCap 上的主導地位為 0.5672——一個相對較高的值。跌至 0.45 左右將表明市場控制轉向山寨幣,可能引發山寨幣反彈。

However, until key metrics such as Bitcoin dominance, capital inflow into the market, and liquidity in altcoins improve, the long-anticipated altseason will remain delayed.

然而,在比特幣主導地位、市場資本流入和山寨幣流動性等關鍵指標改善之前,人們期待已久的山寨幣季節仍將被推遲。

新聞來源:ambcrypto.com

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