由于比特币的主导地位保持高位且流动性减少，山寨季仍然被推迟

在过去 24 小时内，较大的加密货币市场几乎没有什么变动，仅上涨了 0.11%。相反，交易量有所下降

output: Over the last 24 hours, the cryptocurrency market has seen little movement. With a 0.11% gain, the trading volume dropped sharply to $153.08 billion, marking a 3.57% decline. Several major altcoins, including ETH, XRP, and DOGE, fell on the charts too, dropping by 0.81%, 0.54%, and 0.34%, respectively, within the same period.

产出：过去 24 小时内，加密货币市场几乎没有变动。涨幅为0.11%，成交量大幅下滑至1530.8亿美元，跌幅为3.57%。包括 ETH、XRP 和 DOGE 在内的几种主要山寨币也在图表上下跌，同期分别下跌了 0.81%、0.54% 和 0.34%。

While the market appears to be entering a recovery phase, with assets slowly regaining lost value, new insights suggest that an altseason might remain delayed.

虽然市场似乎正在进入复苏阶段，资产慢慢恢复损失的价值，但新的见解表明山寨季可能仍会延迟。

This delay can be attributed to a lack of significant changes in key market metrics, including liquidity flow and overall market sentiment.

这种延迟可归因于关键市场指标缺乏重大变化，包括流动性和整体市场情绪。

An analyst on Twitter highlighted this, stating that altcoins are still in a stalled phase, with limited liquidity flowing into these assets, ultimately delaying the much-anticipated altseason, where altcoins typically see significant upward momentum.

Twitter 上的一位分析师强调了这一点，指出山寨币仍处于停滞阶段，流入这些资产的流动性有限，最终推迟了备受期待的山寨币季节，而山寨币通常会在山寨币季节出现显着的上涨势头。

Charts presented by the analyst revealed that altcoin market capitalization – depicted on the right – has barely surged, remaining only slightly above $1.6 trillion. This is comparable to the peaks observed during the 2021-2022 altcoin rally.

该分析师提供的图表显示，山寨币市值（如右图所示）几乎没有飙升，仅略高于 1.6 万亿美元。这与 2021-2022 年山寨币反弹期间观察到的峰值相当。

However, Bitcoin exhibited a different trend. Its market capitalization has nearly doubled since hitting its previous all-time high in 2022, now exceeding $2 trillion.

然而，比特币却呈现出不同的趋势。自 2022 年创下历史新高以来，其市值几乎翻了一番，目前已超过 2 万亿美元。

This indicates that the current market cycle is being led by Bitcoin, with the majority of new investment capital being directed towards it, rather than altcoins. This shift can be attributed to the entry of institutional investors and the launch of Spot Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) in the United States.

这表明当前的市场周期由比特币主导，大部分新投资资本都流向比特币，而不是山寨币。这种转变可归因于机构投资者的进入以及美国现货交易所交易基金（ETF）的推出。

The stagnation of altcoin market capitalization suggests that funds are merely rotating between different altcoins, with little to no new liquidity entering the market. If this trend continues, it would mean that the altseason will remain delayed, with altcoins only seeing minor gains or isolated rallies based on prevailing market narratives.

山寨币市值的停滞表明资金只是在不同山寨币之间轮换，几乎没有新的流动性进入市场。如果这种趋势持续下去，这将意味着山寨币季节将继续推迟，根据当前的市场叙述，山寨币只会出现小幅上涨或孤立的反弹。

Meanwhile, the broader cryptocurrency market has also seen a sharp decline in liquidity. According to Glassnode’s Aggregate Realized Value Net Position Change metric, which measures liquidity inflows and outflows, liquidity has dropped by 49% over the past month, falling from $134 billion to $68 billion.

与此同时，更广泛的加密货币市场的流动性也急剧下降。根据 Glassnode 衡量流动性流入和流出的总已实现价值净头寸变化指标，流动性在过去一个月下降了 49%，从 1340 亿美元降至 680 亿美元。

This liquidity crunch is evident in the market's overall state, as many altcoins are yet to recover to their previous all-time highs, last reached in late 2024.

这种流动性紧缩在市场的整体状态中很明显，因为许多山寨币尚未恢复到之前的历史高点（上次达到 2024 年末）。

A key indicator for an altcoin rally has traditionally been a significant decline in Bitcoin dominance, often followed by successive market-wide gains for altcoins.

传统上，山寨币上涨的一个关键指标是比特币主导地位的显着下降，随后通常是山寨币在整个市场上的连续上涨。

Bitcoin dominance measures the proportion of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization held by Bitcoin relative to altcoins. When Bitcoin dominance increases, altcoins typically underperform as capital flows back into Bitcoin. This trend is currently evident in the market.

比特币主导地位衡量的是比特币相对于山寨币所持有的加密货币总市值的比例。当比特币的主导地位增强时，随着资本回流到比特币，山寨币通常表现不佳。目前这种趋势在市场上很明显。

At press time, Bitcoin dominance on CoinMarketCap stood at 0.5672 – A relatively high value. A drop to around 0.45 would point to a shift in market control towards altcoins, potentially sparking an altcoin rally.

截至发稿时，比特币在 CoinMarketCap 上的主导地位为 0.5672——一个相对较高的值。跌至 0.45 左右将表明市场控制转向山寨币，可能引发山寨币反弹。

However, until key metrics such as Bitcoin dominance, capital inflow into the market, and liquidity in altcoins improve, the long-anticipated altseason will remain delayed.

然而，在比特币主导地位、市场资本流入和山寨币流动性等关键指标改善之前，人们期待已久的山寨币季节仍将被推迟。