山寨幣季節結束了嗎？加密市場正在經歷重大轉變

加密貨幣市場正在經歷重大轉型，導致山寨幣的未來充滿不確定性。每年，人們都熱切地等待「山寨幣季節」的到來

The crypto market has undergone a significant transformation over the years, leading to uncertainty about the future of altcoins. Every year, people eagerly await an “altcoin season,” a period when alternative cryptocurrencies experience a surge in value. However, the rapid increase in new tokens is leading some to believe that these parabolic market cycles could be coming to an end.

多年來，加密貨幣市場經歷了重大轉變，導致山寨幣的未來充滿不確定性。每年，人們都熱切地等待“山寨幣季節”，這是替代加密貨幣價值飆升的時期。然而，新代幣的快速成長讓一些人相信這些拋物線市場週期可能即將結束。

During previous altcoin seasons, the price of non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies would rise substantially. The 2017-2018 cycle was a prime example, with coins like Ether (ETH), XRP, and Litecoin (LTC) experiencing unprecedented growth. But time has brought about a drastic change.

在之前的山寨幣季節，非比特幣加密貨幣的價格會大幅上漲。 2017-2018 年週期就是一個典型的例子，以太幣 (ETH)、XRP 和萊特幣 (LTC) 等代幣經歷了前所未有的成長。但時間卻帶來了翻天覆地的改變。

As Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto analyst, highlights, the crypto market has become an open world, evidenced by the total number of tangible coins increasing dramatically. “Today, there are over 36.4 million altcoins,” the industry expert proclaims, citing Dune Analytics figures. In contrast, there were nearly 3,000 altcoins during the 2017-2018 altseason, and the figure was even less than 500 in 2013-2014. Martinez believes that such a vast supply of tokens will surely impact market dynamics and may preclude a long-lasting altseason. Due to the ever growing number of options, it has become extremely difficult for investors to figure out the real value and potential of the coins and thus the coins which may grow.

正如著名加密貨幣分析師阿里·馬丁內斯（Ali Martinez）所強調的那樣，加密貨幣市場已經成為一個開放的世界，有形貨幣總數急劇增加就證明了這一點。 「如今，山寨幣的數量已超過 3,640 萬種，」該行業專家引述 Dune Analytics 的數據宣稱。相較之下，2017-2018 年山寨幣季節有近 3000 個山寨幣，2013-2014 年這數字甚至不到 500 個。馬丁內斯認為，如此大量的代幣供應肯定會影響市場動態，並可能阻止長期持續的山寨季。由於選擇的數量不斷增加，投資者很難弄清楚代幣的真正價值和潛力，從而了解可能成長的代幣。

Economist Alex Krüger shares a similar sentiment, emphasizing the way market behavior is influenced by the oversupply of tokens. He opines that “supply of tokens is greater than demand.” This imbalance runs counter to the idea of a time period in which “everything goes up” will be the case. Instead, altcoins are expected to experience shorter periods of duration, lasting only two to a few weeks at most. Krüger touches upon the difficulty encountered by the investors at present: “Being a good coin picker is now very hard. Just as being a good stock picker is also very hard.” The multitude of tokens available complicates the effectiveness of a portfolio manager.

經濟學家 Alex Krüger 也有類似的觀點，他強調代幣供應過剩對市場行為的影響。他認為「代幣的供應大於需求」。這種不平衡與「一切都會上漲」的時期的想法背道而馳。相反，山寨幣的持續時間預計會較短，最多只會持續兩到幾週。克魯格談到了投資人目前遇到的困難：「現在要成為優秀的選幣者非常困難。正如成為一名優秀的選股者也非常困難一樣。可用代幣的眾多使投資組合經理的效率變得複雜。

Adding to the concern is the opinion of Ash Crypto, a pseudonymous crypto trader who discredits the spreading out of the altcoin market, blaming it on the meme coins and low-quality tokens that entered the market. The exchanges are criticized for the fact that these meme coins are listed mainly to increase the volume and user base, usually at the cost of the retail investors who suffer massive losses. Ash Crypto singled out this type of token, the price of which one week is $50 and another week, $10 in the negative, which is said to be ‘buying these memes and down 80% in a week and then quitting.’ Meanwhile, this behavior is mostly believed to have an adverse effect on the general picture of the altcoin market in the long term.

更令人擔憂的是匿名加密貨幣交易商 Ash Crypto 的觀點，他對山寨幣市場的蔓延表示懷疑，並將其歸咎於進入市場的迷因幣和低品質代幣。這些交易所受到批評的事實是，這些迷因幣的上市主要是為了增加交易量和用戶基礎，而代價通常是讓散戶投資者蒙受巨大損失。 Ash Crypto 挑出了這類代幣，其價格一周為 50 美元，另一周為負數 10 美元，據說是「購買這些 meme，一周內下跌 80%，然後退出」。同時，人們普遍認為，從長遠來看，這種行為會對山寨幣市場的整體狀況產生不利影響。

The crypto community points to the fact that the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju solidifies the aforementioned idea by comparing altcoins to Bitcoin. In his view, “Only a few altcoin projects with strong use cases and narratives will survive.” The question raised by him is if those tokens without intrinsic value would be able to anchor the market after some corrections, which would more impact such low-performing ones.

加密社群指出，CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 透過將山寨幣與比特幣進行比較，鞏固了上述想法。在他看來，“只有少數具有強大用例和敘述的山寨幣項目才能生存下來。”他提出的問題是，那些沒有內在價值的代幣在一些調整後是否能夠錨定市場，這對錶現不佳的代幣影響更大。

On the other hand, Bitcoin has doubled its market cap for this period from 2021 to $2.07 trillion, thus breaking its own record. In contrast, the total altcoin market capitalization is still far below its peak. Altcoins, despite a short-lived upsurge, are currently valued at around $1.6 trillion compared to $1.9 trillion, the all-time high, down by 15.8%. Its diversity has been a clear indication since everyone would prefer using a single asset – Bitcoin over the rest. The argument is that Bitcoin is seen as the more inferior and riskier asset as compared to other cryptos.

另一方面，比特幣的市值較 2021 年翻了一番，達到 2.07 兆美元，從而打破了自己的紀錄。相比之下，山寨幣總市值仍遠低於高峰。儘管山寨幣出現了短暫的上漲，但目前的估值約為 1.6 兆美元，與歷史高點 1.9 兆美元相比，下跌了 15.8%。它的多樣性是一個明確的跡象，因為每個人都更喜歡使用單一資產——比特幣而不是其他資產。爭論的焦點是，與其他加密貨幣相比，比特幣被視為更劣質、風險更高的資產。

But there are some analysts who are not that pessimistic. Michaël van de Poppe suggests that some utility-focused coins might catch the attention of institutions. He asserts that “real utility coins” may “take the spotlight as institutional interest continues to grow.” Van de Poppe also proposes that Ethereum (ETH) could be a howler, setting out the possibility of an ETH surge as “the most hated rally of 2025.” This point of view acknowledges the possibility of individual digital currency’s head becoming successful because of institutional usage and its presence in the real world. For instance, a blockchain platform that provides verifiable solutions for supply chain control could be considered a real utility project.

但也有一些分析師不那麼悲觀。邁克爾·範·德·波普 (Michaël van de Poppe) 表示，一些以實用為中心的代幣可能會引起機構的注意。他斷言，“隨著機構興趣的持續增長，“真正的實用代幣”可能會成為人們關注的焦點。” Van de Poppe 也提出以太坊 (ETH) 可能會暴漲，並將 ETH 飆升的可能性列為「2025 年最令人討厭的反彈」。這種觀點承認個人數位貨幣頭部由於機構使用及其在現實世界中的存在而獲得成功的可能性。例如，為供應鏈控制提供可驗證解決方案的區塊鏈平台可以被視為真正的公用事業項目。

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly admitted the necessity of reimagining the exchange’s token listing process. Considering that the number of new tokens is estimated to be in the millions, and that they are being created on a weekly basis, the manual evaluation of each token is easier said than done. This indicates a business-wide concern that

Coinbase 執行長 Brian Armstrong 公開承認有必要重新設計交易所的代幣上市流程。考慮到新代幣的數量估計有數百萬，並且每週都會創建，因此對每個代幣進行手動評估說起來容易做起來難。這顯示了整個企業的擔憂