山寨币季节结束了吗？加密市场正在经历重大转变

加密货币市场正在经历重大转型，导致山寨币的未来充满不确定性。每年，人们都热切地等待“山寨币季节”的到来

The crypto market has undergone a significant transformation over the years, leading to uncertainty about the future of altcoins. Every year, people eagerly await an “altcoin season,” a period when alternative cryptocurrencies experience a surge in value. However, the rapid increase in new tokens is leading some to believe that these parabolic market cycles could be coming to an end.

多年来，加密货币市场经历了重大转变，导致山寨币的未来充满不确定性。每年，人们都热切地等待“山寨币季节”，这是替代加密货币价值飙升的时期。然而，新代币的快速增加让一些人相信这些抛物线市场周期可能即将结束。

During previous altcoin seasons, the price of non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies would rise substantially. The 2017-2018 cycle was a prime example, with coins like Ether (ETH), XRP, and Litecoin (LTC) experiencing unprecedented growth. But time has brought about a drastic change.

在之前的山寨币季节，非比特币加密货币的价格会大幅上涨。 2017-2018 年周期就是一个典型的例子，以太坊 (ETH)、XRP 和莱特币 (LTC) 等代币经历了前所未有的增长。但时间却带来了翻天覆地的变化。

As Ali Martinez, a well-known crypto analyst, highlights, the crypto market has become an open world, evidenced by the total number of tangible coins increasing dramatically. “Today, there are over 36.4 million altcoins,” the industry expert proclaims, citing Dune Analytics figures. In contrast, there were nearly 3,000 altcoins during the 2017-2018 altseason, and the figure was even less than 500 in 2013-2014. Martinez believes that such a vast supply of tokens will surely impact market dynamics and may preclude a long-lasting altseason. Due to the ever growing number of options, it has become extremely difficult for investors to figure out the real value and potential of the coins and thus the coins which may grow.

正如著名加密货币分析师阿里·马丁内斯（Ali Martinez）所强调的那样，加密货币市场已经成为一个开放的世界，有形货币总数急剧增加就证明了这一点。 “如今，山寨币的数量已超过 3640 万种，”该行业专家援引 Dune Analytics 的数据宣称。相比之下，2017-2018 年山寨币季节有近 3000 个山寨币，2013-2014 年这一数字甚至不足 500 个。马丁内斯认为，如此大量的代币供应肯定会影响市场动态，并可能阻止长期持续的山寨季。由于选择的数量不断增加，投资者很难弄清楚代币的真正价值和潜力，从而了解可能增长的代币。

Economist Alex Krüger shares a similar sentiment, emphasizing the way market behavior is influenced by the oversupply of tokens. He opines that “supply of tokens is greater than demand.” This imbalance runs counter to the idea of a time period in which “everything goes up” will be the case. Instead, altcoins are expected to experience shorter periods of duration, lasting only two to a few weeks at most. Krüger touches upon the difficulty encountered by the investors at present: “Being a good coin picker is now very hard. Just as being a good stock picker is also very hard.” The multitude of tokens available complicates the effectiveness of a portfolio manager.

经济学家 Alex Krüger 也有类似的观点，他强调代币供应过剩对市场行为的影响。他认为“代币的供应大于需求”。这种不平衡与“一切都会上涨”的时期的想法背道而驰。相反，山寨币的持续时间预计会较短，最多只会持续两到几周。克鲁格谈到了投资者目前遇到的困难：“现在成为一名优秀的选币者非常困难。正如成为一名优秀的选股者也非常困难一样。”可用代币的众多使投资组合经理的效率变得复杂。

Adding to the concern is the opinion of Ash Crypto, a pseudonymous crypto trader who discredits the spreading out of the altcoin market, blaming it on the meme coins and low-quality tokens that entered the market. The exchanges are criticized for the fact that these meme coins are listed mainly to increase the volume and user base, usually at the cost of the retail investors who suffer massive losses. Ash Crypto singled out this type of token, the price of which one week is $50 and another week, $10 in the negative, which is said to be ‘buying these memes and down 80% in a week and then quitting.’ Meanwhile, this behavior is mostly believed to have an adverse effect on the general picture of the altcoin market in the long term.

更令人担忧的是匿名加密货币交易商 Ash Crypto 的观点，他对山寨币市场的蔓延表示怀疑，并将其归咎于进入市场的模因币和低质量代币。这些交易所受到批评的事实是，这些迷因币的上市主要是为了增加交易量和用户基础，而通常是以散户投资者遭受巨大损失为代价的。 Ash Crypto 挑出了这类代币，其价格一周为 50 美元，另一周为负数 10 美元，据说是“购买这些 meme，一周内下跌 80%，然后退出”。与此同时，人们普遍认为，从长远来看，这种行为会对山寨币市场的总体状况产生不利影响。

The crypto community points to the fact that the CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju solidifies the aforementioned idea by comparing altcoins to Bitcoin. In his view, “Only a few altcoin projects with strong use cases and narratives will survive.” The question raised by him is if those tokens without intrinsic value would be able to anchor the market after some corrections, which would more impact such low-performing ones.

加密社区指出，CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 通过将山寨币与比特币进行比较，巩固了上述想法。在他看来，“只有少数具有强大用例和叙述的山寨币项目才能生存下来。”他提出的问题是，那些没有内在价值的代币在经过一些调整后是否能够锚定市场，这对表现不佳的代币影响更大。

On the other hand, Bitcoin has doubled its market cap for this period from 2021 to $2.07 trillion, thus breaking its own record. In contrast, the total altcoin market capitalization is still far below its peak. Altcoins, despite a short-lived upsurge, are currently valued at around $1.6 trillion compared to $1.9 trillion, the all-time high, down by 15.8%. Its diversity has been a clear indication since everyone would prefer using a single asset – Bitcoin over the rest. The argument is that Bitcoin is seen as the more inferior and riskier asset as compared to other cryptos.

另一方面，比特币的市值较 2021 年翻了一番，达到 2.07 万亿美元，从而打破了自己的记录。相比之下，山寨币总市值仍远低于峰值。尽管山寨币出现了短暂的上涨，但目前的估值约为 1.6 万亿美元，与历史高点 1.9 万亿美元相比，下跌了 15.8%。它的多样性是一个明确的迹象，因为每个人都更喜欢使用单一资产——比特币而不是其他资产。争论的焦点是，与其他加密货币相比，比特币被视为更劣质、风险更高的资产。

But there are some analysts who are not that pessimistic. Michaël van de Poppe suggests that some utility-focused coins might catch the attention of institutions. He asserts that “real utility coins” may “take the spotlight as institutional interest continues to grow.” Van de Poppe also proposes that Ethereum (ETH) could be a howler, setting out the possibility of an ETH surge as “the most hated rally of 2025.” This point of view acknowledges the possibility of individual digital currency’s head becoming successful because of institutional usage and its presence in the real world. For instance, a blockchain platform that provides verifiable solutions for supply chain control could be considered a real utility project.

但也有一些分析师并不那么悲观。迈克尔·范·德·波普 (Michaël van de Poppe) 表示，一些以实用为中心的代币可能会引起机构的注意。他断言，“随着机构兴趣的持续增长，“真正的实用代币”可能会成为人们关注的焦点。” Van de Poppe 还提出以太坊 (ETH) 可能会暴涨，并将 ETH 飙升的可能性列为“2025 年最令人讨厌的反弹”。这种观点承认个体数字货币头部由于机构使用及其在现实世界中的存在而获得成功的可能性。例如，为供应链控制提供可验证解决方案的区块链平台可以被视为真正的公用事业项目。

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has publicly admitted the necessity of reimagining the exchange’s token listing process. Considering that the number of new tokens is estimated to be in the millions, and that they are being created on a weekly basis, the manual evaluation of each token is easier said than done. This indicates a business-wide concern that

Coinbase 首席执行官布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗 (Brian Armstrong) 公开承认有必要重新设计交易所的代币上市流程。考虑到新代币的数量估计有数百万，并且每周都会创建，因此对每个代币进行手动评估说起来容易做起来难。这表明了整个企业的担忧