山寨幣季節結束了嗎？

市場正在經歷重大變化。由於這一變化，比特幣飆升。機構利益推動了這一點。有了這個

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has advised that altcoins must stop relying on Bitcoin’s surge to fuel their growth. Instead, they should develop their strategies to attract fresh investment.

CryptoQuant 執行長 Ki Young Ju 建議山寨幣必須停止依賴比特幣的飆升來推動其成長。相反，他們應該制定吸引新投資的策略。

He emphasized that the altcoin season is in doubt without a new influx of capital distinct from Bitcoin’s. Moving forward, the altcoin sector as a whole will struggle to achieve new all-time highs.

他強調，如果沒有不同於比特幣的新資本湧入，山寨幣季節仍有疑問。展望未來，整個山寨幣產業將努力創下歷史新高。

“For altcoins to reach a new all-time high market capitalization, they will require a significant influx of fresh capital to crypto exchanges. The altcoin market cap below its previous ATH indicates reduced fresh liquidity from new exchange users.”

「為了讓山寨幣的市值達到歷史新高，它們將需要大量新資本湧入加密貨幣交易所。山寨幣市值低於先前的 ATH 表明新交易所用戶的新鮮流動性減少。

“Altcoins should focus on developing independent strategies to attract new capital rather than relying on Bitcoin’s momentum,” the analyst concluded while clarifying that he is still “bullish” on altcoins.

「山寨幣應該專注於制定獨立策略來吸引新資本，而不是依賴比特幣的勢頭，」這位分析師總結道，同時澄清他仍然「看好」山寨幣。

The altcoin market cap has yet to recover its previous all-time high. So, the influx of new liquidity is crucial for the altcoin season to manifest ahead. That will help drive growth and reach new record levels.

山寨幣市值尚未恢復到先前的歷史高點。因此，新流動性的湧入對於山寨幣季節的到來至關重要。這將有助於推動成長並達到新的紀錄水平。

Institutional investors may purchase significant altcoins through ETFs. The Ki Young Ju noted that smaller altcoins still depend on retail investors on crypto exchanges for their purchases.

機構投資者可以透過 ETF 購買重要的山寨幣。 Ki Young Ju 指出，較小的山寨幣仍然依賴散戶投資者在加密貨幣交易所購買。

This disparity in capital flow is hindering the typical breakout of altcoins, and altcoin season is not able to come, Ju explained. He clarified that the slower market cap growth of altcoins, compared to Bitcoin, will result in a rise in BTC dominance.

Ju解釋說，這種資金流向的差異正在阻礙山寨幣的典型突破，山寨幣季節不可能到來。他澄清說，與比特幣相比，山寨幣的市值增長較慢，這將導致比特幣的主導地位上升。

Is Bitcoin’s Price Rally Being Driven by Institutional Demand?

比特幣價格上漲是由機構需求推動的嗎？

Bitcoin’s rally contrasted sharply with previous cycles driven by retail speculation. Today, institutional investors and spot ETFs dominate the capital flow. That pushed the Bitcoin price higher.

比特幣的上漲與先前由散戶投機推動的周期形成鮮明對比。如今，機構投資者和現貨 ETF 主導著資本流動。這推高了比特幣價格。

These institutional players tend to focus on long-term investments rather than short-term trades. That makes them less inclined to divert their capital into altcoins.

這些機構參與者往往注重長期投資而非短期交易。這使得他們不太願意將資金轉移到山寨幣。

Also, this shift poses a challenge for smaller altcoins. These have historically relied on retail liquidity from exchanges for growth. Bitcoin usually benefits from steady institutional support. This provides price stability as altcoins rely on a shrinking retail investor base for their trading volume.

此外，這種轉變對較小的山寨幣構成了挑戰。這些公司歷來依賴交易所的零售流動性來成長。比特幣通常受益於穩定的機構支持。這提供了價格穩定性，因為山寨幣的交易量依賴於不斷縮小的散戶投資者基礎。

Ki Young Ju emphasized that for altcoins to recover sustainably, new capital must flow through exchange-based trading. That could be triggered by retail investors’ fear of missing out (FOMO).

Ki Young Ju強調，為了讓山寨幣可持續復甦，新的資本必須透過基於交易所的交易流動。這可能是由散戶擔心錯過機會（FOMO）引發的。

He highlighted that only a handful of altcoins will likely attract new capital. On the other hand, an altcoin season may eventually arrive. However, it will benefit only a few; not all altcoins will reach their previous all-time highs.

他強調，只有少數山寨幣可能會吸引新資本。另一方面，山寨幣季節可能最終到來。然而，它只會讓少數人受益；並非所有山寨幣都會達到先前的歷史新高。

Ju also stated- ”That is a season for Total 3, not an “altcoin season” in the traditional sense where anything outside of #Bitcoin is considered an altcoin.”

Ju 還表示，“這是 Total 3 的季節，而不是傳統意義上的‘山寨幣季節’，在傳統意義上，#Bitcoin 之外的任何東西都被視為山寨幣。”

Institutional investors can access major altcoins through ETFs or similar products. However, the smaller altcoins cannot draw such funding.

機構投資者可以透過 ETF 或類似產品購買主要山寨幣。然而，較小的山寨幣無法吸引此類資金。

Without a boost in capital from exchange users, altcoins will struggle to reach their former market highs. This will limit their role in the broader crypto market rally.

如果沒有交易所用戶的資金增加，山寨幣將很難達到先前的市場高點。這將限制他們在更廣泛的加密市場反彈中的作用。

In October 2024, renowned trader Willy Woo predicted that altcoin seasons would progressively weaken with each market cycle. The trader told his followers on social media:

2024 年 10 月，著名交易員 Willy Woo 預測，山寨幣季節將隨著每個市場週期逐漸減弱。這位交易員在社群媒體上告訴他的粉絲：

“There will be echo fractals of mid-caps and low-caps pumping after BTC pumps as investors chase returns higher on the risk curve. This is a normal part of markets, and we see this in equities — it’s just alt seasons will be weaker each cycle on from the great 2017 alt bubble.”

「隨著投資人在風險曲線上追逐更高的回報，在比特幣上漲之後，中型股和低型股將會出現迴聲分形。這是市場的正常組成部分，我們在股票中也看到了這一點——只是自 2017 年偉大的另類泡沫以來，每個週期的另類季節都會變得更弱。

Challenges with Liquidity and Saturation in the Altcoin Market

山寨幣市場流動性和飽和度的挑戰

The “TOTAL” ticker on TradingView tracks the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It dropped to $3.04 Trillion on November 26th. However, it has since been recovering. When writing, it has reached $3.23 Trillion.

TradingView 上的「TOTAL」代碼追蹤加密貨幣總市值。 11 月 26 日跌至 3.04 兆美元。不過，此後一直在恢復。撰寫本文時，已達到 3.23 兆美元。

This rebound is driven by positive buyer sentiment. That aims to retest the current bull run’s developed peak at $3.36 Trillion. However, despite Bitcoin’s rise, altcoins have struggled to maintain consistent growth. They have often experienced price corrections after Bitcoin rallies.

這次反彈是由積極的買家情緒推動的。其目的是重新測試目前牛市的 3.36 兆美元的峰值。然而，儘管比特幣上漲，但山寨幣仍難以維持持續成長。他們經常在比特幣上漲後經歷價格調整。

In previous bullish phases, altcoins were more profitable than Bitcoin due to their lower trading volumes and higher volatility. However, with increasing altcoins flooding the market, investors have been diversifying their capital across multiple projects.

在先前的看漲階段，山寨幣由於交易量較低且波動性較高，因此比比特幣更有利可圖。然而，隨著越來越多的山寨幣湧入市場，投資者一直在多個項目中實現資本多元化。

Similarly, this trend is being further complicated by meme coins. These coins are capturing the attention and liquidity of retail investors, diverting funds away from other altcoins.

同樣，模因幣也使這一趨勢變得更加複雜。這些代幣吸引了散戶投資者的注意力和流動性，將資金從其他山寨幣上轉移開。

Previously, leveraged trading was key in driving altcoin activity and was crucial to starting altcoin season. However, retail traders are now more focused on the high-risk, high-reward potential of meme coins.

此前，槓桿交易是推動山寨幣活動的關鍵，對於山寨幣季節的開始也至關重要。然而，零售交易者現在更關注模因幣的高風險、高回報潛力。

For altcoins to thrive in the current environment, they will need to showcase solid fundamentals and clear use cases. They also need the ability to attract sustainable liquidity.

為了讓山寨幣在當前環境中蓬勃發展，它們需要展示堅實的基本面和明確的用例。他們還需要有能力吸引可持續的流動性。

Is it Time to Update Development Strategies for Altcoins?

是時候更新山寨幣的發展策略了嗎？

Altcoins need to move away from depending on Bitcoin’s momentum and focus on

山寨幣需要擺脫對比特幣勢頭的依賴，並專注於