山寨币季节结束了吗？

市场正在经历重大变化。由于这一变化，比特币飙升。机构利益推动了这一点。有了这个

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has advised that altcoins must stop relying on Bitcoin’s surge to fuel their growth. Instead, they should develop their strategies to attract fresh investment.

CryptoQuant 首席执行官 Ki Young Ju 建议山寨币必须停止依赖比特币的飙升来推动其增长。相反，他们应该制定吸引新投资的战略。

He emphasized that the altcoin season is in doubt without a new influx of capital distinct from Bitcoin’s. Moving forward, the altcoin sector as a whole will struggle to achieve new all-time highs.

他强调，如果没有不同于比特币的新资本涌入，山寨币季节仍存在疑问。展望未来，整个山寨币行业将努力创下历史新高。

“For altcoins to reach a new all-time high market capitalization, they will require a significant influx of fresh capital to crypto exchanges. The altcoin market cap below its previous ATH indicates reduced fresh liquidity from new exchange users.”

“为了让山寨币的市值达到历史新高，它们将需要大量新资本涌入加密货币交易所。山寨币市值低于之前的 ATH 表明新交易所用户的新鲜流动性减少。”

“Altcoins should focus on developing independent strategies to attract new capital rather than relying on Bitcoin’s momentum,” the analyst concluded while clarifying that he is still “bullish” on altcoins.

“山寨币应该专注于制定独立策略来吸引新资本，而不是依赖比特币的势头，”这位分析师总结道，同时澄清他仍然“看好”山寨币。

The altcoin market cap has yet to recover its previous all-time high. So, the influx of new liquidity is crucial for the altcoin season to manifest ahead. That will help drive growth and reach new record levels.

山寨币市值尚未恢复到之前的历史高点。因此，新流动性的涌入对于山寨币季节的到来至关重要。这将有助于推动增长并达到新的纪录水平。

Institutional investors may purchase significant altcoins through ETFs. The Ki Young Ju noted that smaller altcoins still depend on retail investors on crypto exchanges for their purchases.

机构投资者可以通过 ETF 购买重要的山寨币。 Ki Young Ju 指出，较小的山寨币仍然依赖散户投资者在加密货币交易所进行购买。

This disparity in capital flow is hindering the typical breakout of altcoins, and altcoin season is not able to come, Ju explained. He clarified that the slower market cap growth of altcoins, compared to Bitcoin, will result in a rise in BTC dominance.

Ju解释说，这种资金流向的差异正在阻碍山寨币的典型突破，山寨币季节不可能到来。他澄清说，与比特币相比，山寨币的市值增长较慢，这将导致比特币的主导地位上升。

Is Bitcoin’s Price Rally Being Driven by Institutional Demand?

比特币价格上涨是由机构需求推动的吗？

Bitcoin’s rally contrasted sharply with previous cycles driven by retail speculation. Today, institutional investors and spot ETFs dominate the capital flow. That pushed the Bitcoin price higher.

比特币的上涨与之前由散户投机推动的周期形成鲜明对比。如今，机构投资者和现货 ETF 主导着资本流动。这推高了比特币价格。

These institutional players tend to focus on long-term investments rather than short-term trades. That makes them less inclined to divert their capital into altcoins.

这些机构参与者往往注重长期投资而不是短期交易。这使得他们不太愿意将资金转移到山寨币上。

Also, this shift poses a challenge for smaller altcoins. These have historically relied on retail liquidity from exchanges for growth. Bitcoin usually benefits from steady institutional support. This provides price stability as altcoins rely on a shrinking retail investor base for their trading volume.

此外，这种转变对较小的山寨币构成了挑战。这些公司历来依赖交易所的零售流动性来实现增长。比特币通常受益于稳定的机构支持。这提供了价格稳定性，因为山寨币的交易量依赖于不断缩小的散户投资者基础。

Ki Young Ju emphasized that for altcoins to recover sustainably, new capital must flow through exchange-based trading. That could be triggered by retail investors’ fear of missing out (FOMO).

Ki Young Ju强调，为了让山寨币可持续复苏，新的资本必须通过基于交易所的交易流动。这可能是由散户投资者担心错过机会（FOMO）引发的。

He highlighted that only a handful of altcoins will likely attract new capital. On the other hand, an altcoin season may eventually arrive. However, it will benefit only a few; not all altcoins will reach their previous all-time highs.

他强调，只有少数山寨币可能会吸引新资本。另一方面，山寨币季节可能最终到来。然而，它只会让少数人受益；并非所有山寨币都会达到之前的历史新高。

Ju also stated- ”That is a season for Total 3, not an “altcoin season” in the traditional sense where anything outside of #Bitcoin is considered an altcoin.”

Ju 还表示，“这是 Total 3 的季节，而不是传统意义上的‘山寨币季节’，在传统意义上，#Bitcoin 之外的任何东西都被视为山寨币。”

Institutional investors can access major altcoins through ETFs or similar products. However, the smaller altcoins cannot draw such funding.

机构投资者可以通过 ETF 或类似产品购买主要山寨币。然而，较小的山寨币无法吸引此类资金。

Without a boost in capital from exchange users, altcoins will struggle to reach their former market highs. This will limit their role in the broader crypto market rally.

如果没有交易所用户的资金增加，山寨币将很难达到之前的市场高点。这将限制他们在更广泛的加密市场反弹中的作用。

In October 2024, renowned trader Willy Woo predicted that altcoin seasons would progressively weaken with each market cycle. The trader told his followers on social media:

2024 年 10 月，著名交易员 Willy Woo 预测，山寨币季节将随着每个市场周期逐渐减弱。这位交易员在社交媒体上告诉他的粉丝：

“There will be echo fractals of mid-caps and low-caps pumping after BTC pumps as investors chase returns higher on the risk curve. This is a normal part of markets, and we see this in equities — it’s just alt seasons will be weaker each cycle on from the great 2017 alt bubble.”

“随着投资者在风险曲线上追逐更高的回报，在比特币上涨之后，中型股和低型股将会出现回声分形。这是市场的正常组成部分，我们在股票中也看到了这一点——只是自 2017 年伟大的另类泡沫以来，每个周期的另类季节都会变得更弱。”

Challenges with Liquidity and Saturation in the Altcoin Market

山寨币市场流动性和饱和度的挑战

The “TOTAL” ticker on TradingView tracks the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. It dropped to $3.04 Trillion on November 26th. However, it has since been recovering. When writing, it has reached $3.23 Trillion.

TradingView 上的“TOTAL”代码跟踪加密货币总市值。 11 月 26 日跌至 3.04 万亿美元。不过，此后一直在恢复。撰写本文时，已达到 3.23 万亿美元。

This rebound is driven by positive buyer sentiment. That aims to retest the current bull run’s developed peak at $3.36 Trillion. However, despite Bitcoin’s rise, altcoins have struggled to maintain consistent growth. They have often experienced price corrections after Bitcoin rallies.

此次反弹是由积极的买家情绪推动的。其目的是重新测试当前牛市的 3.36 万亿美元的峰值。然而，尽管比特币上涨，但山寨币仍难以保持持续增长。在比特币上涨后，他们经常经历价格调整。

In previous bullish phases, altcoins were more profitable than Bitcoin due to their lower trading volumes and higher volatility. However, with increasing altcoins flooding the market, investors have been diversifying their capital across multiple projects.

在之前的看涨阶段，山寨币由于交易量较低且波动性较高，因此比比特币更有利可图。然而，随着越来越多的山寨币涌入市场，投资者一直在多个项目中实现资本多元化。

Similarly, this trend is being further complicated by meme coins. These coins are capturing the attention and liquidity of retail investors, diverting funds away from other altcoins.

同样，模因币也使这一趋势变得更加复杂。这些代币吸引了散户投资者的注意力和流动性，将资金从其他山寨币上转移开。

Previously, leveraged trading was key in driving altcoin activity and was crucial to starting altcoin season. However, retail traders are now more focused on the high-risk, high-reward potential of meme coins.

此前，杠杆交易是推动山寨币活动的关键，对于山寨币季节的开始也至关重要。然而，零售交易者现在更关注模因币的高风险、高回报潜力。

For altcoins to thrive in the current environment, they will need to showcase solid fundamentals and clear use cases. They also need the ability to attract sustainable liquidity.

为了让山寨币在当前环境中蓬勃发展，它们需要展示坚实的基本面和明确的用例。他们还需要有能力吸引可持续的流动性。

Is it Time to Update Development Strategies for Altcoins?

是时候更新山寨币的发展策略了吗？

Altcoins need to move away from depending on Bitcoin’s momentum and focus on

山寨币需要摆脱对比特币势头的依赖，并专注于