Runes: A Revolutionary Protocol Ignites Hype and Controversy in Bitcoin's Ecosystem

The Bitcoin halving event coincided with the debut of Runes, a new fungible token protocol on Bitcoin. Runes has sparked hype around memecoins and the potential for Bitcoin to tap into DeFi. Despite initial enthusiasm, Runes has been criticized for high transaction fees and lack of profitability, while Bitcoin miners have seen a surge in revenue from fees associated with Runes transactions. However, advocates believe Runes has the potential to evolve into a more versatile protocol, enhancing Bitcoin's functionality and facilitating broader adoption within its ecosystem.

The Rise and Impact of Runes: A Game-Changer for Bitcoin

The recent Bitcoin halving event, typically the sole focus of attention, shared the limelight with the much-anticipated debut of Runes, a groundbreaking fungible token protocol that swiftly stole the show. Runes' launch ignited an unprecedented wave of hype surrounding the potential for memecoins and, to a lesser extent, unveiled a novel avenue for harnessing the growing DeFi movement within the Bitcoin network.

Despite initial enthusiasm, Runes has drawn its fair share of criticism for its role in escalating Bitcoin's transaction fees and its failure to generate substantial returns for most investors. On the day of the halving, Bitcoin fees soared to record highs, resulting in a windfall for miners despite a 50% reduction in block rewards. However, this surge in activity did not translate into profits for investors, as the top 50 Runes by number of holders had collectively declined by 30% on average by April 29, according to data from OKX. Two-thirds of these tokens (34 out of 50) were in the red.

Despite these setbacks, proponents maintain that it is premature to dismiss Runes, envisioning a future where enhancements to the protocol evolve its utility, facilitating improved trading experiences and broader adoption within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Investors have shared their firsthand trading experiences with Runes.

"I've been there when other protocols launched, and they all sucked in the first few days," said Quary, the pseudonymous founder of Bitcoin marketplace Magisat. "I see no reason not to be bullish [on Runes] in the medium or long term."

Unlocking New Horizons for Bitcoin

Benjamin Charbit, CEO of metaverse firm Darewise Entertainment, hailed the hype surrounding Runes as "immense." A significant portion of the excitement stems from the potential for memecoins to onboard new retail users into the Bitcoin ecosystem.

Runes possesses the ability to extend the functionality of the Bitcoin blockchain, enabling users to tokenize a wide range of real-world assets, including real estate, stocks, commodities, and even other cryptocurrencies such as stablecoins. This capability opens up a wealth of new possibilities for DeFi applications and other use cases within the Bitcoin ecosystem.

"Today's Runes interface is likely not the final iteration, with promising prospects for enhanced user-friendly applications and services on the horizon," said Charbit.

While Runes may have a more pragmatic future beyond serving as a crypto casino, it is primarily known as a haven for memecoins at present. As of April 29, there were over 349,000 Runes holders, according to data from Rune Alpha, representing nearly half of the active addresses on the network as tracked by on-chain data firm IntoTheBlock.

Lucas Outumuro, head of research at IntoTheBlock, highlighted the recent decline in Bitcoin's new addresses, which had fallen to their lowest levels in two years. Post-halving, new addresses plummeted to around 267,000 and have remained relatively stagnant, with a few spikes, suggesting that veteran users and speculators still dominate activity rather than retail investors.

Mike Chavez, also known as "Goodthings," an avid evangelist, emphasized the superiority of Runes' early infrastructure compared to any other fungible token standard in crypto history. As Chavez pointed out, Runes was accessible on applications like crypto wallet Xverse from the very beginning.

"We've seen a huge uptick in new users at the launch of Runes," said Ken Liao, CEO of Xverse. "BRC-20 tokens also proved that people want memecoins on Bitcoin."

Runes and BRC-20: A Comparative Perspective

Despite its relative youth, BRC-20 was the dominant fungible token standard on Bitcoin prior to Runes. BRC-20s employ a complex structure that leverages Ordinals, Bitcoin's version of non-fungible tokens, requiring users to bundle BRC-20s into NFT-like assets for transactions. The process is cumbersome, leading Ordinals creator Casey Rodarmor to develop Runes as a more streamlined alternative.

Runes presents a more efficient approach to creating fungible tokens on the Bitcoin blockchain by addressing the issue of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) that often plague BRC-20 tokens. It initiates transactions by identifying unused UTXOs, repurposing these digital leftovers.

"Runes is an attractive option for investors seeking efficient token solutions but may not understand or wish to grapple with the complexities of creating NFT-like assets required by BRC-20s," said Jonathan Thomas, CEO of decentralized finance platform Blueberry Protocol. "As Runes gains traction, more users will gravitate towards it, recognizing the alternative it offers, allowing them to create tokens with the same ease as speculators, making Bitcoin's network more accessible."

A Bitcoin Miner's Perspective on Fee Revenue

Bitcoin's proof-of-work consensus mechanism tasks miners with solving complex algorithmic problems to validate transactions. They are rewarded in Bitcoin for their efforts. The halving event cut mining rewards from 6.25 Bitcoin to 3.125, effectively reducing miners' pay and typically resulting in some miners switching off their machines.

However, in an unexpected twist, Bitcoin miners reaped higher earnings on halving day rather than experiencing losses. Miners enjoyed one of their most profitable weekends following the halving, raking in $107 million on April 20 alone. Remarkably, over 75% of that revenue came from transaction fees generated by Rodarmor's Runes and Ordinals, including the hunt for "Epic Sats."

"Bitcoin fees have declined since the initial release of Runes, but they remain two to three times higher than the week before," Outumuro explained. "Miners can anticipate continued revenue from Runes-related transaction fees, but it is likely to be cyclical. When the market is risk-on, revenue will exceed that of risk-off periods."

Quarry added that most fee spikes would originate from minting Runes rather than trading them. He identified Z•Z•Z•Z•Z•FEHU•Z•Z•Z•Z•Z, the first Rune created after the genesis Rune (UNCOMMON•GOODS), as a primary culprit behind the exorbitant fees at halving, considering its staggering 1.1 million mints.

Trading activities could also contribute to fee spikes, albeit to a lesser extent, because "most of the heavy lifting will be passed to centralized exchanges where minimal to nonexistent on-chain activity occurs," he noted.

Less than a week after its inception, the Runes project DOG•GO•TO•THE•MOON by Leonidas, co-founder of Ordinals explorer Ord.io, became available for trading on the exchange Gate.io. However, not all trading activities will take place off-chain, as more decentralized exchanges for Runes are expected to emerge.

Runes: Beyond Memecoins

While the initial iterations of Runes are largely dominated by memecoin experiments, they are not the end game. According to Franklin Templeton, an investment firm managing $1.6 trillion in assets, Runes positions Bitcoin to compete effectively in the fungible token markets of Ethereum and Solana.

Runes improves upon the BRC-20 approach by minimizing the accumulation of UTXOs. Excessive UTXOs can strain the network and increase fees, but Runes streamlines the process, ensuring smoother blockchain operation.

"This approach minimizes bloating the blockchain with excess data," said Thomas of Blueberry Protocol. "This method also enables embedding multiple token transfers within a single transaction, which naturally reduces the number of transactions and data nodes required for processing."

Sal added, "It would be a mistake to write off Runes at this juncture."

An efficient, fungible token standard is crucial for DeFi, enabling a vast array of financial services on-chain. Ethereum, the dominant blockchain for DeFi with over $54 billion in total value locked, hosts a wide range of decentralized services, including decentralized exchanges and lending and borrowing platforms. These use cases are facilitated by fungible tokens such as stablecoins.

"Runes remains a pivotal trendsetter, especially as more memecoins and innovative projects inject utility into their Rune tokens," said Charbit, adding that Opal plans to incorporate utilities such as governance and in-game currency mechanics into its tokens.

According to Liao of Xverse, general users may not yet fully appreciate the potential of Runes, as only the "basic infrastructure" is currently operational. "However, the underlying protocol has improvements that could significantly enhance trading and other applications in the future," said Liao.