MicroStrategy's (NASDAQ: MSTR) Plan to Buy Every BTC Token in Existence Is Facing Competition From Other Companies That No Longer Wish to Do What They Originally Set Up to Do

MicroStrategy has been financing its BTC purchases via a mix of selling stock and taking on new debt. On November 18, MicroStrategy announced plans to raise another $1.75 billion in new debt (with a potential top-up to $2 billion).

MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ:MSTR) plan to buy every BTC token in existence is facing competition from other companies that no longer wish to do what they originally set up to do. On November 11, MicroStrategy announced that it had purchased an additional 27,200 BTC tokens between October 31 and November 10. The bill for this mega-purchase was just over US$2 billion, with an average price paid per token of $74,463. Just one week later, Michael Saylor’s company announced that it had purchased a further 51,780 BTC at an average price of $88,627 for a total cost of $4.6 billion—its biggest buy to date. The sprees pushed the company’s total BTC hoard to 331,200—nearly 1.6% of all the BTC that will ever be—with an average purchase price of $49,874. On November 19, BTC briefly flirted with yet another all-time high of ~$94,000, spurred by the election of Donald Trump to a second presidential term and hopes of a regulatory reprieve from the annoying stuff that other financial sectors call rules. MicroStrategy has been financing its BTC purchases via a mix of selling stock and taking on new debt. On November 18, MicroStrategy announced plans to raise another $1.75 billion in new debt (with a potential top-up to $2 billion). With MicroStrategy’s share price also hitting new highs—closing above $430 on November 19, around 8x where the shares were at this time last year—Saylor is clearly feeling cocky, as these new convertible notes will pay interest of 0%. In other words, buyers will effectively be betting that the company’s stock will continue to rise based solely on its BTC holdings. Otherwise, there’s no benefit. MicroStrategy recently pledged to raise $42 billion over the next three years to buy even more BTC. Considering that (a) his company has purchased $6.6 billion worth of BTC in less than three weeks and (b) the average per-token prices of these purchases vs. the current price, Saylor may well be the sole source of the hot air currently inflating BTC’s balloon. Also, recall that MicroStrategy’s data analytics business—the thing it was set up to do—remains a money loser, adding another $18.5 million in red ink during the third quarter of 2024. One suspects Saylor no longer cares and will only maintain this data analytics façade until it no longer suits his tax purposes. MicroStrategy’s market cap is now 2.5x the value of its BTC holdings, making it a pseudo-exchange traded fund (ETF) that doesn’t grant shareholders any claim on the company’s BTC. And yet institutions like Bank of America, Goldman Sachs (NASDAQ:GS), Morgan Stanley (NASDAQ:MS), Vanguard Group, and Capital International Investors are snapping up MSTR shares by the millions. Given that every new BTC bulk buy pushes MicroStrategy’s average token purchase price higher, coupled with BTC’s proven history of shedding 50% or more of its fiat value in a matter of months, the company—not to mention its shareholders—is taking a major gamble here. Should BTC crash hard (again), Saylor might find, to his chagrin, that he is the market and there’s no one to sell to on the way down. One other thing: Saylor remains MSTR’s largest shareholder, but the recent sales have pushed his control of aggregate voting power below 50%. Saylor alluded to this reality in MSTR’s Q3 earnings report but insisted that “there’s nothing that we’re going to do that [other shareholders are] not going to want us to do.” Maybe, but just wait until the next time BTC tanks and Saylor proposes issuing more debt to ‘buy the dip.’

Imitation is the sincerest form of f*ckery

Saylor’s (for the moment) successful strategy is now being mimicked by a growing number of companies, both within and outside the digital asset space. On November 18, block reward mining outfit MARA (NASDAQ:MARA), formerly Marathon Digital, announced plans to raise at least $850 million (and possibly $1 billion) in new debt to help pay off some old debt and buy more BTC. MARA already holds 27,562 BTC and has pledged not to sell any of the hundreds of new tokens it mines each month, at least, so long as suckers, er, investors keep buying its debt. That same day, California-based medical technology firm Semler Scientific (NASDAQ:SMLR) announced the purchase of 215 BTC with $17