Justin Trudeau Resigns as Canadian Prime Minister, Polymarket Betting Reflects the Odds

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his resignation on Friday, following reports that members of Parliament were pressuring him to step down due to internal challenges.

Trudeau made the announcement during a press conference on Friday, stating that the party would choose his successor “through a robust, nationwide, competitive process.”

The announcement comes shortly after Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in December. Freeland's departure was reportedly due to disagreements with Trudeau over handling potential tariffs from US President-elect Donald Trump.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I'm having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” Trudeau said.

Polymarket betting activity spiked ahead of the resignation, with users speculating whether Justin Trudeau would step down by the end of January 6. The odds on Polymarket showed a clear increase, reflecting heightened anticipation of his resignation.

Polymarket also allowed users to bet on potential successors for the Canadian Prime Minister role after the next election. At the time of the announcement, Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, led with 91% odds. The platform has seen consistent activity, with users placing bets on political events such as US elections and cabinet selections. However, Polymarket political bets remain restricted to users outside the United States due to platform policies.

There were concerns about the influence of “whale” bets, with some large investors pouring millions into certain predictions that could impact the displayed odds.

The resignation of Chrystia Freeland in December amplified political uncertainty for the Liberal Party. Freeland left her role as Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, citing policy disagreements with Justin Trudeau, particularly on responses to potential tariffs threatened by the United States. Her exit sparked concerns over party unity during a critical period for Canadian politics.

During his tenure, Justin Trudeau faced criticism from the crypto industry, especially following his use of the Emergencies Act during the 2022 truckers’ protests. Trudeau's decision allowed the government to freeze bank accounts and monitor digital asset transactions deemed suspicious. Critics argued that these measures overreached financial freedoms, drawing backlash from crypto advocates.

The Liberal Party will now select a new leader to navigate these challenges and lead the party in the upcoming elections that will shape Canada's future.