Circle Labs Inc. (USDC) IPO Filing Sheds Light on Its Relationship with Coinbase

The S-1, a preliminary filing for companies planning to go public, shows that Circle generated $1.67 billion in revenue for 2024.

Circle's new initial public offering (IPO) filing has highlighted the company's relationship with Coinbase, revealing the millions paid to the exchange for distributing the USDC stablecoin. Over 50% of the firm's revenue in 2024 went to Coinbase, according to the filing.

The S-1, a preliminary filing for companies planning to go public, shows that Circle generated $1.67 billion in revenue for 2024. This is a significant increase from $1.4 billion in 2023 and $772 million in 2022. However, the company is doing worse financially as earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) decreased by 29% to $285 million, and net income also fell by 42% to $155.67 million.

While many factors contributed to this, analysts have identified the major problems as Circle's distribution costs and reliance on Coinbase. According to the filing, the USDC issuer spent $1.01 billion in distribution and transaction costs for 2024, exceeding its expenses in 2023 and 2024.

Out of these costs, Coinbase received $908 million, while Binance got $60.25 million and monthly fees for its partnership with Circle. The massive amount paid to Coinbase is due to the share of USDC being held on the exchange. The supply of USDC on Coinbase is now 20% of the total USDC in circulation, up from 5% in 2022.

Despite the surprising sum paid to Coinbase, the two companies have a long-standing relationship. In 2018, they formed the Centre consortium that launched USDC, but Circle gained full control of the stablecoin in 2023 when they dissolved the consortium.

However, Circle had to pay $210 million in its own stock to buy Coinbase's stake in Centre, giving the exchange about 8.4 million common shares for the stake. With this relationship, Coinbase stands to be a major beneficiary of Circle's IPO success.

Analysts raise concerns about Circle's financials

Meanwhile, Circle's IPO filing has put the company in the public eye, with financial analysts commenting and raising concerns about the company's business fundamentals. According to the commenters such as the head of digital assets research at VanEck, Matthew Sigel, and Farside Investors, the company's high distribution costs are a major issue.

The massive distribution costs highlight how USDC's growth in the past year might be coming at a high price for Circle's business. USDC has been the fastest-growing stablecoin in the past few months. Its circulating supply increased by 100% in the last 12 months with more than $15 billion this year alone, enough to raise its market cap above $60 billion.

Farside Investors also noted the company's massive spending on compensation and higher-than-expected gross creation and redemption numbers for USDC.

The firm wrote:

"The gross creation and redemption numbers are a lot higher than we would have thought for USDC. Gross creations in a year are many multiples higher than the outstanding balance."

The firm’s gross creation and redemption numbers for USDC are a lot higher than we would have thought for USDC

The gross creation and redemption numbers are a lot higher than we would have thought for USDC. Gross creations in a year are many multiples higher than the outstanding balance. We assume that they are able to quickly recycle those USDC on an unannounced basis but it does speak to the level of activity in the token.

Moreover, Dragonfly investment analyst Omar had a more scathing criticism of the IPO filing, noting that he does not see the potential of it going to the $5 billion that Circle is aiming for. He also pointed out the distribution costs, the potential deregulation which will bring in more competitors, and the likelihood of interest rate cuts as headwinds for the company.

He said:

"32x ’24 earnings for a business that just lost its mini-monopoly and facing several headwinds is expensive when growth structurally challenged. feels like a hail mary for some liquidity before the squad rolls in."

However, Circle did acknowledge some of these challenges in its filing, particularly the cost of distribution partners and reliance on Coinbase. The firm mentioned new global partners such as Nubank, Mercado Libre, and Grab.

Discussing this further, VanEck Ventures general partner Wyatt Lonergan admitted that new partnerships and Circle's status as the only stablecoin firm with a legitimate claim to go public could be its advantage. Nonetheless, the analyst made predictions on how the IPO could turn out.

In the base case scenario, Circle will ride the stablecoin narrative for about 12 months, find ways to diversify revenue