如果XRP促进所有全球跨境转移，其价格可能会大幅提高

本文假设XRP促进了所有全球跨境转移，探讨了XRP的潜在价格。

If XRP were to facilitate all global cross-border transfers, its price could rise significantly. Based on current usage patterns and market dynamics, estimates suggest XRP could reach approximately $4,100 per token. However, several factors, including transaction velocity and liquidity definitions, could impact this projection.

如果XRP促进所有全球跨境转移，其价格可能会大大上涨。基于当前的使用模式和市场动态，估计表明XRP每令牌可能达到约4,100美元。但是，包括交易速度和流动性定义在内的几个因素可能会影响这一预测。

How Was the Price Estimated?

价格如何估计？

The total volume of global cross-border transfers is approximately $190 trillion annually (Statista, 2023).

全球跨境转移的总数每年约为190万亿美元（Statista，2023）。

XRP's price is estimated assuming a velocity of 0.09 (each token is transferred about 0.09 times per year). At this rate, XRP's price could rise to $4,100 to accommodate this demand.

假设速度为0.09（每个令牌每年转移约0.09次），则估计XRP的价格估计。以这种速度，XRP的价格可能会上涨至4,100美元，以适应这一需求。

If velocity increases (e.g., reaching 1, meaning each token is used once per year), the price could be lower, potentially around $327 per token.

如果速度增加（例如，达到1，这意味着每个令牌每年一次使用一次），则价格可能会降低，可能会降低每个令牌327美元左右。

Understanding 'Global Liquidity for Transfers'

了解“转移的全球流动性”

The term "global liquidity for transfers" can be interpreted in two ways:

可以通过两种方式来解释“转移的全球流动性”一词：

Annual flow – The total value of cross-border transactions processed each year ($190T).

年流量 - 每年处理的跨境交易的总价值（$ 190T）。

Stock – The amount of money available for transfer at any given moment (which would depend on transaction execution time).

库存 - 在任何给定时刻可转让的钱金额（这取决于交易执行时间）。

For this estimate, the annual flow approach is used.

对于此估计，使用年度流量方法。

Current Market Analysis

当前的市场分析

XRP Circulating Supply: ~58 billion tokens

XRP循环供应：约580亿个令牌

Current Price (March 2025): ~$2.30

当前价格（2025年3月）：〜$ 2.30

Market Cap: ~$133.4 billion

市值：约1334亿美元

Daily Transactions: ~2 million

每日交易：约200万

Average Transaction Value: ~$17.50

平均交易价值：〜$ 17.50

Annual XRP Transaction Volume: ~$12.775 billion

年度XRP交易量：〜$ 1277.5亿美元

Calculating the Potential Price

计算潜在价格

Using the exchange equation:

使用交换方程：

Total transaction value = Market Cap × Velocity

总交易价值=市值×速度

With the current velocity of 0.096, the required market cap for XRP to handle $190 trillion in global transfers would be:

由于目前的速度为0.096，XRP的所需市值要处理1.90万亿美元的全球转移将是：

190T / 0.096 = $1,979.17 trillion

190T / 0.096 = $ 1,979.17万亿

New Price Estimate:

新价格估算：

Market Cap / Circulating Supply = 1,979.17T / 58B ≈ $34,126 per token

市场上限 /循环电源= 1,979.17T / 58B≈$ 34,126 /令牌

If velocity increases to 1:

如果速度增加到1：

190T / 58B ≈ $3,276 per token

190t /58b≈$ 3,276 /令牌

Final Considerations

最终考虑

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity.

如果XRP要处理所有全球转移，则根据交易速度，其价格从理论上讲的价格可能在3,276至34,126美元之间。

At a constant velocity of 0.096, the price could increase nearly 1,484 times from current levels.

以0.096的恒定速度，价格可能比当前水平增加近1,484倍。

However, real-world factors—such as regulatory changes, competition, and evolving transaction efficiency—could influence these projections.

但是，现实世界中的因素（例如监管变化，竞争和不断发展的交易效率）可能会影响这些预测。

Conclusion

结论

While these calculations provide a theoretical outlook, they rely on assumptions about XRP's future adoption, liquidity, and velocity. Market dynamics will ultimately determine whether XRP can capture a significant portion of global financial transactions.

尽管这些计算提供了理论上的前景，但它们依赖于对XRP未来采用，流动性和速度的假设。市场动态最终将确定XRP是否可以捕获全球金融交易的很大一部分。

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Nonetheless, several factors could influence this projection. Transaction velocity, liquidity definitions, and real-world economic changes may alter the estimated price range. Moreover, considering the vastness of the sums involved, even a small shift in transaction velocity or a change in the mode of liquidity provision could have a substantial impact on the final price estimate.

尽管如此，几个因素可能会影响这一预测。交易速度，流动性定义和实际经济变化可能会改变估计的价格范围。此外，考虑到所涉及的巨额，即使是交易速度的微小转变或流动性提供方式的变化也可能对最终价格估算产生重大影响。

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity and the way "global liquidity for transfers" is defined—annual flow or stock. At a constant velocity of 0.096, the price could increase nearly 1,484 times from current levels. However, several real-world factors, such as regulatory regimes, competing payment technologies, and the constant evolution of transaction efficiency, could influence these projections.

如果XRP要处理所有全球转移，那么根据交易速度，其价格在3,276美元至34,126美元之间，具体取决于交易速度以及定义的“全球流动性转移”（全球流动性）的方式（年度流量或库存）。以0.096的恒定速度，价格可能比当前水平增加近1,484倍。但是，几种现实世界中的因素，例如监管制度，竞争支付技术以及交易效率的不断发展，可能会影响这些预测。

These calculations provide a theoretical snapshot of XRP's price potential in a future scenario where it handles the majority of global financial transactions. However, it's crucial to emphasize that this is a dynamic domain subject to substantial market shifts and unforeseen events.

这些计算在处理大多数全球金融交易的情况下，提供了XRP价格潜力的理论快照。但是，至关重要的是要强调，这是一个动态领域，受到大量市场转变和不可预见的事件的影响。

Finally, to put these numbers in perspective, at current prices, one could buy a used Toyota Yaris for the same amount of XRP as the price of one Bitcoin. Nonetheless, several factors could impact this projection. Transaction velocity, liquidity definitions, and real-world economic changes may alter the estimated price range. Considering the vastness of the sums involved, even a small shift in transaction velocity or a change in the mode of liquidity provision could have a substantial impact on the final price estimate.

最后，为了以目前的价格将这些数字以与一个比特币的价格相同的XRP购买，可以以当前的价格购买二手的丰田Yaris。但是，几个因素可能会影响这一预测。交易速度，流动性定义和实际经济变化可能会改变估计的价格范围。考虑到所涉及的巨大款项，即使交易速度的微小转变或流动性提供方式的变化也可能对最终价格估算产生重大影响。

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity and the way "global liquidity for transfers" is defined—annual flow or stock.

如果XRP要处理所有全球转移，那么根据交易速度，其价格在3,276美元至34,126美元之间，具体取决于交易速度以及定义的“全球流动性转移”（全球流动性）的方式（年度流量或库存）。