如果XRP促進所有全球跨境轉移，其價格可能會大幅提高

本文假設XRP促進了所有全球跨境轉移，探討了XRP的潛在價格。

If XRP were to facilitate all global cross-border transfers, its price could rise significantly. Based on current usage patterns and market dynamics, estimates suggest XRP could reach approximately $4,100 per token. However, several factors, including transaction velocity and liquidity definitions, could impact this projection.

如果XRP促進所有全球跨境轉移，其價格可能會大大上漲。基於當前的使用模式和市場動態，估計表明XRP每令牌可能達到約4,100美元。但是，包括交易速度和流動性定義在內的幾個因素可能會影響這一預測。

How Was the Price Estimated?

價格如何估計？

The total volume of global cross-border transfers is approximately $190 trillion annually (Statista, 2023).

全球跨境轉移的總數每年約為190萬億美元（Statista，2023）。

XRP's price is estimated assuming a velocity of 0.09 (each token is transferred about 0.09 times per year). At this rate, XRP's price could rise to $4,100 to accommodate this demand.

假設速度為0.09（每個令牌每年轉移約0.09次），則估計XRP的價格估計。以這種速度，XRP的價格可能會上漲至4,100美元，以適應這一需求。

If velocity increases (e.g., reaching 1, meaning each token is used once per year), the price could be lower, potentially around $327 per token.

如果速度增加（例如，達到1，這意味著每個令牌每年一次使用一次），則價格可能會降低，可能會降低每個令牌327美元左右。

Understanding 'Global Liquidity for Transfers'

了解“轉移的全球流動性”

The term "global liquidity for transfers" can be interpreted in two ways:

可以通過兩種方式來解釋“轉移的全球流動性”一詞：

Annual flow – The total value of cross-border transactions processed each year ($190T).

年流量 - 每年處理的跨境交易的總價值（$ 190T）。

Stock – The amount of money available for transfer at any given moment (which would depend on transaction execution time).

庫存 - 在任何給定時刻可轉讓的錢金額（這取決於交易執行時間）。

For this estimate, the annual flow approach is used.

對於此估計，使用年度流量方法。

Current Market Analysis

當前的市場分析

XRP Circulating Supply: ~58 billion tokens

XRP循環供應：約580億個令牌

Current Price (March 2025): ~$2.30

當前價格（2025年3月）：〜$ 2.30

Market Cap: ~$133.4 billion

市值：約1334億美元

Daily Transactions: ~2 million

每日交易：約200萬

Average Transaction Value: ~$17.50

平均交易價值：〜$ 17.50

Annual XRP Transaction Volume: ~$12.775 billion

年度XRP交易量：〜$ 1277.5億美元

Calculating the Potential Price

計算潛在價格

Using the exchange equation:

使用交換方程：

Total transaction value = Market Cap × Velocity

總交易價值=市值×速度

With the current velocity of 0.096, the required market cap for XRP to handle $190 trillion in global transfers would be:

由於目前的速度為0.096，XRP的所需市值要處理1.90萬億美元的全球轉移將是：

190T / 0.096 = $1,979.17 trillion

190T / 0.096 = $ 1,979.17萬億

New Price Estimate:

新價格估算：

Market Cap / Circulating Supply = 1,979.17T / 58B ≈ $34,126 per token

市場上限 /循環電源= 1,979.17T / 58B≈$ 34,126 /令牌

If velocity increases to 1:

如果速度增加到1：

190T / 58B ≈ $3,276 per token

190t /58b≈$ 3,276 /令牌

Final Considerations

最終考慮

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity.

如果XRP要處理所有全球轉移，則根據交易速度，其價格從理論上講的價格可能在3,276至34,126美元之間。

At a constant velocity of 0.096, the price could increase nearly 1,484 times from current levels.

以0.096的恆定速度，價格可能比當前水平增加近1,484倍。

However, real-world factors—such as regulatory changes, competition, and evolving transaction efficiency—could influence these projections.

但是，現實世界中的因素（例如監管變化，競爭和不斷發展的交易效率）可能會影響這些預測。

Conclusion

結論

While these calculations provide a theoretical outlook, they rely on assumptions about XRP's future adoption, liquidity, and velocity. Market dynamics will ultimately determine whether XRP can capture a significant portion of global financial transactions.

儘管這些計算提供了理論上的前景，但它們依賴於對XRP未來採用，流動性和速度的假設。市場動態最終將確定XRP是否可以捕獲全球金融交易的很大一部分。

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Nonetheless, several factors could influence this projection. Transaction velocity, liquidity definitions, and real-world economic changes may alter the estimated price range. Moreover, considering the vastness of the sums involved, even a small shift in transaction velocity or a change in the mode of liquidity provision could have a substantial impact on the final price estimate.

儘管如此，幾個因素可能會影響這一預測。交易速度，流動性定義和實際經濟變化可能會改變估計的價格範圍。此外，考慮到所涉及的巨額，即使是交易速度的微小轉變或流動性提供方式的變化也可能對最終價格估算產生重大影響。

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity and the way "global liquidity for transfers" is defined—annual flow or stock. At a constant velocity of 0.096, the price could increase nearly 1,484 times from current levels. However, several real-world factors, such as regulatory regimes, competing payment technologies, and the constant evolution of transaction efficiency, could influence these projections.

如果XRP要處理所有全球轉移，那麼根據交易速度，其價格在3,276美元至34,126美元之間，具體取決於交易速度以及定義的“全球流動性轉移”（全球流動性）的方式（年度流量或庫存）。以0.096的恆定速度，價格可能比當前水平增加近1,484倍。但是，幾種現實世界中的因素，例如監管制度，競爭支付技術以及交易效率的不斷發展，可能會影響這些預測。

These calculations provide a theoretical snapshot of XRP's price potential in a future scenario where it handles the majority of global financial transactions. However, it's crucial to emphasize that this is a dynamic domain subject to substantial market shifts and unforeseen events.

這些計算在處理大多數全球金融交易的情況下，提供了XRP價格潛力的理論快照。但是，至關重要的是要強調，這是一個動態領域，受到大量市場轉變和不可預見的事件的影響。

Finally, to put these numbers in perspective, at current prices, one could buy a used Toyota Yaris for the same amount of XRP as the price of one Bitcoin. Nonetheless, several factors could impact this projection. Transaction velocity, liquidity definitions, and real-world economic changes may alter the estimated price range. Considering the vastness of the sums involved, even a small shift in transaction velocity or a change in the mode of liquidity provision could have a substantial impact on the final price estimate.

最後，為了以目前的價格將這些數字以與一個比特幣的價格相同的XRP購買，可以以當前的價格購買二手的豐田Yaris。但是，幾個因素可能會影響這一預測。交易速度，流動性定義和實際經濟變化可能會改變估計的價格範圍。考慮到所涉及的巨大款項，即使交易速度的微小轉變或流動性提供方式的變化也可能對最終價格估算產生重大影響。

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity and the way "global liquidity for transfers" is defined—annual flow or stock.

如果XRP要處理所有全球轉移，那麼根據交易速度，其價格在3,276美元至34,126美元之間，具體取決於交易速度以及定義的“全球流動性轉移”（全球流動性）的方式（年度流量或庫存）。