If XRP Were to Facilitate All Global Cross-border Transfers, Its Price Could See a Substantial Increase

This article explores the potential price of XRP assuming it facilitates all global cross-border transfers.

If XRP were to facilitate all global cross-border transfers, its price could rise significantly. Based on current usage patterns and market dynamics, estimates suggest XRP could reach approximately $4,100 per token. However, several factors, including transaction velocity and liquidity definitions, could impact this projection.

How Was the Price Estimated?

The total volume of global cross-border transfers is approximately $190 trillion annually (Statista, 2023).

XRP's price is estimated assuming a velocity of 0.09 (each token is transferred about 0.09 times per year). At this rate, XRP's price could rise to $4,100 to accommodate this demand.

If velocity increases (e.g., reaching 1, meaning each token is used once per year), the price could be lower, potentially around $327 per token.

Understanding 'Global Liquidity for Transfers'

The term "global liquidity for transfers" can be interpreted in two ways:

Annual flow – The total value of cross-border transactions processed each year ($190T).

Stock – The amount of money available for transfer at any given moment (which would depend on transaction execution time).

For this estimate, the annual flow approach is used.

Current Market Analysis

XRP Circulating Supply: ~58 billion tokens

Current Price (March 2025): ~$2.30

Market Cap: ~$133.4 billion

Daily Transactions: ~2 million

Average Transaction Value: ~$17.50

Annual XRP Transaction Volume: ~$12.775 billion

Calculating the Potential Price

Using the exchange equation:

Total transaction value = Market Cap × Velocity

With the current velocity of 0.096, the required market cap for XRP to handle $190 trillion in global transfers would be:

190T / 0.096 = $1,979.17 trillion

New Price Estimate:

Market Cap / Circulating Supply = 1,979.17T / 58B ≈ $34,126 per token

If velocity increases to 1:

190T / 58B ≈ $3,276 per token

Final Considerations

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity.

At a constant velocity of 0.096, the price could increase nearly 1,484 times from current levels.

However, real-world factors—such as regulatory changes, competition, and evolving transaction efficiency—could influence these projections.

Conclusion

While these calculations provide a theoretical outlook, they rely on assumptions about XRP's future adoption, liquidity, and velocity. Market dynamics will ultimately determine whether XRP can capture a significant portion of global financial transactions.

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Nonetheless, several factors could influence this projection. Transaction velocity, liquidity definitions, and real-world economic changes may alter the estimated price range. Moreover, considering the vastness of the sums involved, even a small shift in transaction velocity or a change in the mode of liquidity provision could have a substantial impact on the final price estimate.

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity and the way "global liquidity for transfers" is defined—annual flow or stock. At a constant velocity of 0.096, the price could increase nearly 1,484 times from current levels. However, several real-world factors, such as regulatory regimes, competing payment technologies, and the constant evolution of transaction efficiency, could influence these projections.

These calculations provide a theoretical snapshot of XRP's price potential in a future scenario where it handles the majority of global financial transactions. However, it's crucial to emphasize that this is a dynamic domain subject to substantial market shifts and unforeseen events.

Finally, to put these numbers in perspective, at current prices, one could buy a used Toyota Yaris for the same amount of XRP as the price of one Bitcoin. Nonetheless, several factors could impact this projection. Transaction velocity, liquidity definitions, and real-world economic changes may alter the estimated price range. Considering the vastness of the sums involved, even a small shift in transaction velocity or a change in the mode of liquidity provision could have a substantial impact on the final price estimate.

If XRP were to handle all global transfers, its price could theoretically range between $3,276 and $34,126 per token, depending on transaction velocity and the way "global liquidity for transfers" is defined—annual flow or stock.