XRP ETF是不可避免的吗？越来越多的信心信号批准可能已经接近

乐观情绪正在围绕XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）的潜在批准，其中许多行业中的许多人说服这只是时间问题

Optimism is building around the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), with many in the industry now believing that it’s only a matter of time before regulators give the go-ahead.

乐观态度围绕XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）的潜在批准而建立的，现在，该行业中的许多人认为，监管机构对该行动进行批准只是时间问题。

Data from Polymarket indicates a high 87% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will sign off on an XRP ETF by late 2025, showcasing the growing confidence among investors.

来自Polymarket的数据表明，美国证券交易委员会（SEC）将在2025年末在XRP ETF上签字，这表明投资者的信心越来越大。

After a U.S. judge ruled largely in favor of Ripple in its case against the SEC, eliminating a major legal hurdle, institutional involvement with XRP is quickly picking up pace.

在美国法官在反对SEC的情况下大部分支持Ripple的情况下，取消了一个重大的法律障碍，与XRP的机构参与很快达到了步伐。

With regulatory uncertainty diminishing and considering the successful launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, speculation has turned toward the arrival of a dedicated XRP ETF.

随着监管不确定性减少并考虑了比特币和以太坊ETF的成功启动，投机已经转向了专用XRP ETF的到来。

“I think it's inevitable. Certainly, somebody like BlackRock or Fidelity would be a likely contender to launch an XRP ETF. It's the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency, so it's a natural addition to the institutional crypto lineup,” said Nate Geraci, head of The ETF Store.

“我认为这是不可避免的。当然，像贝莱德（BlackRock）或忠诚度（Fidelity）这样的人可能是推出XRP ETF的竞争者。这是第三大非稳态加密货币，因此这是机构加密货币阵容的自然补充，” ETF商店的Nate Geraci说。

Traders on Polymarket are making bullish bets on an XRP ETF, interpreting recent regulatory shifts as a sign that an ETF could be announced soon.

Polymarket上的商人正在对XRP ETF进行看涨赌注，将最近的监管转变解释为表明可以很快宣布ETF的标志。

The introduction of such a fund could open the door to even greater institutional adoption, similar to how the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reshaped the market and sparked a wave of capital inflows into cryptoassets.

这种基金的引入可以为更大的机构采用打开大门，类似于第一个比特币和以太坊ETF如何重塑市场，并激发了一波资本流入到加密货币中。

Although BlackRock and Fidelity have yet to signal direct interest in an XRP ETF, analysts believe that growing demand and clearer regulations could soon push major asset managers toward offering XRP-based investment products.

尽管贝莱德（BlackRock）和忠诚度尚未表明对XRP ETF的直接兴趣，但分析师认为，不断增长的需求和更清晰的法规可能会很快将主要资产经理推向提供基于XRP的投资产品。

If approved, an XRP ETF could attract significant capital inflows and further integrate the asset into mainstream finance.

如果获得批准，XRP ETF可能会吸引大量资本流入，并将资产进一步整合到主流金融中。

The possibility of an ETF has fueled speculation about XRP’s future value. Technical analyst Peter Brandt warns that if the asset drops below a key threshold, it could quickly fall to around $1.07.

ETF的可能性激发了人们对XRP未来价值的猜测。技术分析师彼得·布兰特（Peter Brandt）警告说，如果资产降至关键阈值以下，则可能很快降至1.07美元左右。

However, should XRP manage to maintain its momentum and stay above the $3 level, then bearish bets on the asset could backfire.

但是，如果XRP设法保持其势头并保持超过3美元的水平，那么对资产的看跌赌注可能会适得其反。

Meanwhile, crypto investment firm Bitwise sees a long-term bullish case for XRP, particularly if it gains traction in the payments and tokenization sectors.

同时，加密投资公司BITWISE看到了XRP的长期看涨案例，尤其是如果它在付款和令牌部门获得关注时。

In a best-case scenario, where XRP experiences strong adoption in payments and tokenization by 2030, Bitwise estimates that the asset could reach $29.32.

在最佳情况下，到2030年，XRP在付款和令牌化方面经历了强劲的采用，Bitwise估计资产可能达到29.32美元。

Even in a more moderate scenario, where XRP faces average adoption in both domains, Bitwise envisions a potential rise to $12.70 over the next six years.

即使在更为温和的情况下，XRP在两个域中都面临平均采用，Bitwise也设想在未来六年中可能上涨至12.70美元。

As regulatory clarity improves and institutions show increasing interest in the space, XRP’s path toward an ETF appears increasingly realistic. The only question is how soon the SEC will make its move.

随着法规清晰度的提高，机构对空间的兴趣越来越大，XRP通往ETF的道路似乎越来越现实。唯一的问题是，SEC将多久采取行动。