XRP ETF是不可避免的嗎？越來越多的信心信號批准可能已經接近

樂觀情緒正在圍繞XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）的潛在批准，其中許多行業中的許多人說服這只是時間問題

Optimism is building around the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), with many in the industry now believing that it’s only a matter of time before regulators give the go-ahead.

樂觀態度圍繞XRP交易所交易基金（ETF）的潛在批准而建立的，現在，該行業中的許多人認為，監管機構對該行動進行批准只是時間問題。

Data from Polymarket indicates a high 87% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will sign off on an XRP ETF by late 2025, showcasing the growing confidence among investors.

來自Polymarket的數據表明，美國證券交易委員會（SEC）將在2025年末在XRP ETF上簽字，這表明投資者的信心越來越大。

After a U.S. judge ruled largely in favor of Ripple in its case against the SEC, eliminating a major legal hurdle, institutional involvement with XRP is quickly picking up pace.

在美國法官在反對SEC的情況下大部分支持Ripple的情況下，取消了一個重大的法律障礙，與XRP的機構參與很快達到了步伐。

With regulatory uncertainty diminishing and considering the successful launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, speculation has turned toward the arrival of a dedicated XRP ETF.

隨著監管不確定性減少並考慮了比特幣和以太坊ETF的成功啟動，投機已經轉向了專用XRP ETF的到來。

“I think it's inevitable. Certainly, somebody like BlackRock or Fidelity would be a likely contender to launch an XRP ETF. It's the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency, so it's a natural addition to the institutional crypto lineup,” said Nate Geraci, head of The ETF Store.

“我認為這是不可避免的。當然，像貝萊德（BlackRock）或忠誠度（Fidelity）這樣的人可能是推出XRP ETF的競爭者。這是第三大非穩態加密貨幣，因此這是機構加密貨幣陣容的自然補充，” ETF商店的Nate Geraci說。

Traders on Polymarket are making bullish bets on an XRP ETF, interpreting recent regulatory shifts as a sign that an ETF could be announced soon.

Polymarket上的商人正在對XRP ETF進行看漲賭注，將最近的監管轉變解釋為表明可以很快宣布ETF的標誌。

The introduction of such a fund could open the door to even greater institutional adoption, similar to how the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reshaped the market and sparked a wave of capital inflows into cryptoassets.

這種基金的引入可以為更大的機構採用打開大門，類似於第一個比特幣和以太坊ETF如何重塑市場，並激發了一波資本流入到加密貨幣中。

Although BlackRock and Fidelity have yet to signal direct interest in an XRP ETF, analysts believe that growing demand and clearer regulations could soon push major asset managers toward offering XRP-based investment products.

儘管貝萊德（BlackRock）和忠誠度尚未表明對XRP ETF的直接興趣，但分析師認為，不斷增長的需求和更清晰的法規可能會很快將主要資產經理推向提供基於XRP的投資產品。

If approved, an XRP ETF could attract significant capital inflows and further integrate the asset into mainstream finance.

如果獲得批准，XRP ETF可能會吸引大量資本流入，並將資產進一步整合到主流金融中。

The possibility of an ETF has fueled speculation about XRP’s future value. Technical analyst Peter Brandt warns that if the asset drops below a key threshold, it could quickly fall to around $1.07.

ETF的可能性激發了人們對XRP未來價值的猜測。技術分析師彼得·布蘭特（Peter Brandt）警告說，如果資產降至關鍵閾值以下，則可能很快降至1.07美元左右。

However, should XRP manage to maintain its momentum and stay above the $3 level, then bearish bets on the asset could backfire.

但是，如果XRP設法保持其勢頭並保持超過3美元的水平，那麼對資產的看跌賭注可能會適得其反。

Meanwhile, crypto investment firm Bitwise sees a long-term bullish case for XRP, particularly if it gains traction in the payments and tokenization sectors.

同時，加密投資公司BITWISE看到了XRP的長期看漲案例，尤其是如果它在付款和令牌部門獲得關注時。

In a best-case scenario, where XRP experiences strong adoption in payments and tokenization by 2030, Bitwise estimates that the asset could reach $29.32.

在最佳情況下，到2030年，XRP在付款和令牌化方面經歷了強勁的採用，Bitwise估計資產可能達到29.32美元。

Even in a more moderate scenario, where XRP faces average adoption in both domains, Bitwise envisions a potential rise to $12.70 over the next six years.

即使在更為溫和的情況下，XRP在兩個域中都面臨平均採用，Bitwise也設想在未來六年中可能上漲至12.70美元。

As regulatory clarity improves and institutions show increasing interest in the space, XRP’s path toward an ETF appears increasingly realistic. The only question is how soon the SEC will make its move.

隨著法規清晰度的提高，機構對空間的興趣越來越大，XRP通往ETF的道路似乎越來越現實。唯一的問題是，SEC將多久採取行動。