Is an XRP ETF Inevitable? Growing Confidence Signals Approval May Be Near

Optimism is building around the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), with many in the industry convinced it's only a matter of time

Optimism is building around the potential approval of an XRP exchange-traded fund (ETF), with many in the industry now believing that it’s only a matter of time before regulators give the go-ahead.

Data from Polymarket indicates a high 87% probability that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will sign off on an XRP ETF by late 2025, showcasing the growing confidence among investors.

After a U.S. judge ruled largely in favor of Ripple in its case against the SEC, eliminating a major legal hurdle, institutional involvement with XRP is quickly picking up pace.

With regulatory uncertainty diminishing and considering the successful launch of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, speculation has turned toward the arrival of a dedicated XRP ETF.

“I think it's inevitable. Certainly, somebody like BlackRock or Fidelity would be a likely contender to launch an XRP ETF. It's the third-largest non-stablecoin cryptocurrency, so it's a natural addition to the institutional crypto lineup,” said Nate Geraci, head of The ETF Store.

Traders on Polymarket are making bullish bets on an XRP ETF, interpreting recent regulatory shifts as a sign that an ETF could be announced soon.

The introduction of such a fund could open the door to even greater institutional adoption, similar to how the first Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs reshaped the market and sparked a wave of capital inflows into cryptoassets.

Although BlackRock and Fidelity have yet to signal direct interest in an XRP ETF, analysts believe that growing demand and clearer regulations could soon push major asset managers toward offering XRP-based investment products.

If approved, an XRP ETF could attract significant capital inflows and further integrate the asset into mainstream finance.

The possibility of an ETF has fueled speculation about XRP’s future value. Technical analyst Peter Brandt warns that if the asset drops below a key threshold, it could quickly fall to around $1.07.

However, should XRP manage to maintain its momentum and stay above the $3 level, then bearish bets on the asset could backfire.

Meanwhile, crypto investment firm Bitwise sees a long-term bullish case for XRP, particularly if it gains traction in the payments and tokenization sectors.

In a best-case scenario, where XRP experiences strong adoption in payments and tokenization by 2030, Bitwise estimates that the asset could reach $29.32.

Even in a more moderate scenario, where XRP faces average adoption in both domains, Bitwise envisions a potential rise to $12.70 over the next six years.

As regulatory clarity improves and institutions show increasing interest in the space, XRP’s path toward an ETF appears increasingly realistic. The only question is how soon the SEC will make its move.