沃伦·巴菲特对比特币的严峻判决：正确的判断还是短视的观点？

尽管沃伦·巴菲特是最值得信赖的投资者之一，但他仍然坚决反对比特币，他在 2018 年将其称为“老鼠药平方”，并预测加密货币的“糟糕结局”。他认为加密货币缺乏内在价值，是一种不可靠的投资，并将其去中心化性质视为弱点。然而，比特币多头认为，其可替代性、可分割性和稀缺性使其成为一项引人注目的投资，一些人预测其价值将大幅增长。

Warren Buffett's Grim Verdict on Bitcoin: A Sound Judgment or a Myopic Viewpoint?

沃伦·巴菲特对比特币的严峻判决：正确的判断还是短视的观点？

Amidst the current cryptocurrency frenzy, the legendary investor Warren Buffett remains steadfast in his critical stance towards Bitcoin, famously stating that it is "probably rat poison squared." This enigmatic digital asset has sparked a fervent debate, dividing the investment community between ardent believers and skeptical detractors. While Buffett's unwavering skepticism may raise eyebrows, it is imperative to delve deeper into his reasoning and examine the validity of his prognosis.

在当前的加密货币狂热中，传奇投资者沃伦·巴菲特仍然坚定地坚持对比特币的批评立场，他有句名言称比特币“可能是老鼠药的平方”。这种神秘的数字资产引发了激烈的争论，投资界分为热心的信徒和持怀疑态度的反对者。虽然巴菲特坚定不移的怀疑态度可能会引起人们的注意，但有必要更深入地研究他的推理并检验他的预测的有效性。

Buffett's Investing Philosophy: A Pillar of Value and Long-Term Vision

巴菲特的投资理念：价值支柱和长期愿景

Warren Buffett's investment philosophy hinges on the principles of value investing, meticulously evaluating companies based on their intrinsic worth and holding them for extended durations. This approach, honed over decades of experience, has yielded him unparalleled success, propelling him to the heights of financial prominence. Central to Buffett's ideology is the notion of investing in tangible assets that generate real value, a perspective that starkly contrasts with the speculative frenzy that often surrounds cryptocurrencies.

沃伦·巴菲特的投资理念取决于价值投资的原则，根据公司的内在价值仔细评估公司并长期持有它们。这种经过数十年经验磨练的方法为他带来了无与伦比的成功，将他推向了金融地位的顶峰。巴菲特意识形态的核心是投资于能产生实际价值的有形资产，这一观点与加密货币周围的投机狂潮形成鲜明对比。

Bitcoin: A Viable Investment or an Ephemeral Speculation?

比特币：可行的投资还是短暂的投机？

For the uninitiated, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, devoid of any physical backing or government oversight. Its proponents tout its limited supply, fungibility, and security as hallmarks of its intrinsic value. However, Buffett staunchly believes that cryptocurrencies are inherently valueless, lacking the tangible underpinnings that define traditional assets. He equates investing in Bitcoin to purchasing a worthless paper chit, devoid of any inherent utility or the capacity to generate meaningful cash flow.

对于外行来说，比特币是一种去中心化的数字货币，没有任何实体支持或政府监督。它的支持者将其有限的供应、可替代性和安全性吹捧为其内在价值的标志。然而，巴菲特坚信加密货币本质上是没有价值的，缺乏定义传统资产的有形基础。他将投资比特币等同于购买毫无价值的纸质票据，缺乏任何内在的效用或产生有意义的现金流的能力。

The Crypto Bulls: A Chorus of Optimism Amidst Dissent

加密货币牛市：异议中乐观的合唱

Despite Buffett's resolute pessimism, the crypto community remains undeterred, predicting a stratospheric rise in Bitcoin's value. They argue that its decentralized nature, scarcity, and durability render it a compelling alternative to traditional fiat currencies and even gold. Valued proponents like Anthony Scaramucci and Cathie Wood paint a rosy picture, envisioning Bitcoin reaching dizzying heights of $170,000 by mid-2025 and a mind-boggling $1.48 million by 2030.

尽管巴菲特持坚决的悲观态度，但加密货币社区仍然没有被吓倒，预测比特币的价值将大幅上涨。他们认为，其去中心化性质、稀缺性和耐用性使其成为传统法定货币甚至黄金的令人信服的替代品。安东尼·斯卡拉穆奇 (Anthony Scaramucci) 和凯西·伍德 (Cathie Wood) 等重要支持者描绘了一幅美好的图景，他们预计比特币到 2025 年中期将达到 17 万美元的惊人高度，到 2030 年将达到令人难以置信的 148 万美元。

A Clash of Titans: Buffett vs. the Crypto Evangelists

泰坦之战：巴菲特与加密货币布道者

Buffett's naysaying finds itself pitted against the fervent optimism of crypto enthusiasts, each side presenting a compelling narrative. While Buffett emphasizes the inherent worthlessness of Bitcoin, crypto advocates extol its potential as a digital gold, immune to the vagaries of central bank manipulation and geopolitical uncertainties. The debate rages on, with no clear consensus in sight.

巴菲特的反对意见与加密货币爱好者的狂热乐观情绪形成了对立，双方都提出了令人信服的叙述。虽然巴菲特强调比特币固有的毫无价值，但加密货币倡导者却称赞其作为数字黄金的潜力，不受央行操纵和地缘政治不确定性的影响。争论仍在继续，目前还没有明确的共识。

The Performance Conundrum: Bitcoin's Volatility and Ascent

性能难题：比特币的波动性和上涨

Bitcoin's price trajectory has been a rollercoaster ride, marked by both breathtaking surges and gut-wrenching plunges. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable ability to rebound from setbacks, leaving many investors questioning the validity of Buffett's doomsday prophecy. In 2024 alone, Bitcoin has outperformed the broader market, surging by nearly 50% compared to the S&P 500's modest 6% gain.

比特币的价格轨迹就像坐过山车一样，既有惊人的飙升，也有令人痛苦的暴跌。尽管波动性很大，但比特币却表现出了非凡的从挫折中反弹的能力，这让许多投资者质疑巴菲特末日预言的有效性。仅在 2024 年，比特币的表现就跑赢了大盘，与标准普尔 500 指数 6% 的小幅涨幅相比，比特币飙升了近 50%。

Nu Holdings: A Curious Case of Crypto Engagement

Nu Holdings：加密货币参与的一个奇怪案例

Despite Buffett's staunch opposition to Bitcoin, Berkshire Hathaway, his investment behemoth, holds a substantial stake in Nu Holdings, a Brazilian fintech company with its own cryptocurrency venture called Nucoin. This seemingly paradoxical move has left observers puzzled, wondering if Buffett's unwavering skepticism is beginning to waver. However, it is crucial to note that Nucoin is closely intertwined with Nu Holdings' broader digital banking ecosystem, which likely played a more significant role in Berkshire Hathaway's investment decision.

尽管巴菲特坚决反对比特币，但他的投资巨头伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司仍持有巴西金融科技公司 Nu Holdings 的大量股份，该公司拥有自己的加密货币企业 Nucoin。这一看似矛盾的举动让观察家感到困惑，想知道巴菲特坚定不移的怀疑态度是否开始动摇。然而，值得注意的是，Nucoin 与 Nu Holdings 更广泛的数字银行生态系统紧密相连，这可能在伯克希尔哈撒韦公司的投资决策中发挥了更重要的作用。

The Psychological Lure of Get-Rich-Quick Schemes

快速致富计划的心理诱惑

Buffett acknowledges the irresistible allure of get-rich-quick schemes, recognizing that the prospect of easy wealth is deeply ingrained in human nature. He believes that the crypto craze has tapped into this primal instinct, unleashing a torrent of speculative fervor. However, Buffett cautions against the pitfalls of succumbing to the allure of quick profits, emphasizing the importance of disciplined investing based on sound principles.

巴菲特承认快速致富计划具有不可抗拒的吸引力，并认识到轻松致富的前景深深植根于人性之中。他认为，加密货币热潮已经利用了这种原始本能，引发了投机热情的洪流。然而，巴菲特警告不要屈服于快速利润的诱惑，并强调基于合理原则的纪律投资的重要性。

Concluding Remarks: A Balanced Perspective

结束语：平衡的观点

While Warren Buffett's skepticism towards Bitcoin warrants attention, it is essential to approach his views with a nuanced understanding. His investment philosophy is tailored to his specific strengths and risk tolerance, and it may not be universally applicable to all investors. The cryptocurrency landscape is still evolving, and it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will ultimately fulfill the lofty expectations of its proponents or succumb to the skepticism of seasoned investors like Warren Buffett.

虽然沃伦·巴菲特对比特币的怀疑值得关注，但有必要对他的观点进行细致入微的理解。他的投资理念是根据他的具体优势和风险承受能力量身定制的，可能并不普遍适用于所有投资者。加密货币格局仍在不断发展，比特币最终是否会满足其支持者的崇高期望，还是屈服于沃伦·巴菲特等经验丰富的投资者的怀疑，还有待观察。

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to invest in Bitcoin is a deeply personal one, requiring careful consideration of one's financial goals, risk appetite, and long-term investment horizon. While Buffett's views provide valuable insights, they should not be the sole determinant of investment decisions. Independent research, due diligence, and a comprehensive understanding of the risks involved are paramount for navigating the complexities of the cryptocurrency market and making informed investment choices.

最终，是否投资比特币的决定是一个非常个人的决定，需要仔细考虑一个人的财务目标、风险偏好和长期投资期限。虽然巴菲特的观点提供了宝贵的见解，但它们不应成为投资决策的唯一决定因素。独立研究、尽职调查以及对所涉及风险的全面了解对于应对复杂的加密货币市场和做出明智的投资选择至关重要。