華倫‧巴菲特對比特幣的嚴峻判決：正確的判斷還是短視的觀點？

儘管沃倫·巴菲特是最值得信賴的投資者之一，但他仍然堅決反對比特幣，他在 2018 年將其稱為“老鼠藥平方”，並預測加密貨幣的“糟糕結局”。他認為加密貨幣缺乏內在價值，是一種不可靠的投資，並將其去中心化性質視為弱點。然而，比特幣多頭認為，其可替代性、可分割性和稀缺性使其成為一項引人注目的投資，有些人預測其價值將大幅成長。

Warren Buffett's Grim Verdict on Bitcoin: A Sound Judgment or a Myopic Viewpoint?

華倫‧巴菲特對比特幣的嚴峻判決：正確的判斷還是短視的觀點？

Amidst the current cryptocurrency frenzy, the legendary investor Warren Buffett remains steadfast in his critical stance towards Bitcoin, famously stating that it is "probably rat poison squared." This enigmatic digital asset has sparked a fervent debate, dividing the investment community between ardent believers and skeptical detractors. While Buffett's unwavering skepticism may raise eyebrows, it is imperative to delve deeper into his reasoning and examine the validity of his prognosis.

在當前的加密貨幣狂熱中，傳奇投資者沃倫·巴菲特仍然堅定地堅持對比特幣的批評立場，他有句名言稱比特幣「可能是老鼠藥的平方」。這種神秘的數位資產引發了激烈的爭論，投資界分為熱心的信徒和懷疑的反對者。雖然巴菲特堅定不移的懷疑態度可能會引起人們的注意，但有必要更深入地研究他的推理並檢驗他的預測的有效性。

Buffett's Investing Philosophy: A Pillar of Value and Long-Term Vision

巴菲特的投資理念：價值支柱與長期願景

Warren Buffett's investment philosophy hinges on the principles of value investing, meticulously evaluating companies based on their intrinsic worth and holding them for extended durations. This approach, honed over decades of experience, has yielded him unparalleled success, propelling him to the heights of financial prominence. Central to Buffett's ideology is the notion of investing in tangible assets that generate real value, a perspective that starkly contrasts with the speculative frenzy that often surrounds cryptocurrencies.

華倫·巴菲特的投資理念取決於價值投資的原則，根據公司的內在價值仔細評估公司並長期持有它們。這種經過數十年經驗磨練的方法為他帶來了無與倫比的成功，將他推向了金融地位的頂峰。巴菲特意識形態的核心是投資於能產生實際價值的有形資產，這一觀點與加密貨幣周圍的投機狂潮形成鮮明對比。

Bitcoin: A Viable Investment or an Ephemeral Speculation?

比特幣：可行的投資還是短暫的投機？

For the uninitiated, Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency, devoid of any physical backing or government oversight. Its proponents tout its limited supply, fungibility, and security as hallmarks of its intrinsic value. However, Buffett staunchly believes that cryptocurrencies are inherently valueless, lacking the tangible underpinnings that define traditional assets. He equates investing in Bitcoin to purchasing a worthless paper chit, devoid of any inherent utility or the capacity to generate meaningful cash flow.

對外行人來說，比特幣是一種去中心化的數位貨幣，沒有任何實體支持或政府監督。它的支持者將其有限的供應、可替代性和安全性吹捧為其內在價值的標誌。然而，巴菲特堅信加密貨幣本質上是沒有價值的，缺乏定義傳統資產的有形基礎。他將投資比特幣等同於購買毫無價值的紙質票據，缺乏任何內在的效用或產生有意義的現金流的能力。

The Crypto Bulls: A Chorus of Optimism Amidst Dissent

加密貨幣牛市：異議中樂觀的合唱

Despite Buffett's resolute pessimism, the crypto community remains undeterred, predicting a stratospheric rise in Bitcoin's value. They argue that its decentralized nature, scarcity, and durability render it a compelling alternative to traditional fiat currencies and even gold. Valued proponents like Anthony Scaramucci and Cathie Wood paint a rosy picture, envisioning Bitcoin reaching dizzying heights of $170,000 by mid-2025 and a mind-boggling $1.48 million by 2030.

儘管巴菲特持堅決的悲觀態度，但加密貨幣社群仍然沒有被嚇倒，預測比特幣的價值將大幅上漲。他們認為，其去中心化性質、稀缺性和耐用性使其成為傳統法定貨幣甚至黃金的令人信服的替代品。安東尼·斯卡拉穆奇(Anthony Scaramucci) 和凱西·伍德(Cathie Wood) 等重要支持者描繪了一幅美好的圖景，他們預計比特幣到2025 年中期將達到17 萬美元的驚人高度，到2030年將達到令人難以置信的148 萬美元。

A Clash of Titans: Buffett vs. the Crypto Evangelists

泰坦之戰：巴菲特與加密貨幣佈道者

Buffett's naysaying finds itself pitted against the fervent optimism of crypto enthusiasts, each side presenting a compelling narrative. While Buffett emphasizes the inherent worthlessness of Bitcoin, crypto advocates extol its potential as a digital gold, immune to the vagaries of central bank manipulation and geopolitical uncertainties. The debate rages on, with no clear consensus in sight.

巴菲特的反對意見與加密貨幣愛好者的狂熱樂觀情緒形成了對立，雙方都提出了令人信服的敘述。雖然巴菲特強調比特幣固有的毫無價值，但加密貨幣倡導者稱讚其作為數位黃金的潛力，不受央行操縱和地緣政治不確定性的影響。爭論仍在繼續，目前還沒有明確的共識。

The Performance Conundrum: Bitcoin's Volatility and Ascent

表現難題：比特幣的波動性與上漲

Bitcoin's price trajectory has been a rollercoaster ride, marked by both breathtaking surges and gut-wrenching plunges. Despite its volatility, Bitcoin has exhibited a remarkable ability to rebound from setbacks, leaving many investors questioning the validity of Buffett's doomsday prophecy. In 2024 alone, Bitcoin has outperformed the broader market, surging by nearly 50% compared to the S&P 500's modest 6% gain.

比特幣的價格軌跡就像坐雲霄飛車一樣，既有驚人的飆升，也有令人痛苦的暴跌。儘管波動性很大，但比特幣表現出了非凡的從挫折中反彈的能力，這讓許多投資者質疑巴菲特末日預言的有效性。光是 2024 年，比特幣的表現就跑贏了大盤，與標準普爾 500 指數 6% 的小幅漲幅相比，比特幣飆升了近 50%。

Nu Holdings: A Curious Case of Crypto Engagement

Nu Holdings：加密貨幣參與的一個奇怪案例

Despite Buffett's staunch opposition to Bitcoin, Berkshire Hathaway, his investment behemoth, holds a substantial stake in Nu Holdings, a Brazilian fintech company with its own cryptocurrency venture called Nucoin. This seemingly paradoxical move has left observers puzzled, wondering if Buffett's unwavering skepticism is beginning to waver. However, it is crucial to note that Nucoin is closely intertwined with Nu Holdings' broader digital banking ecosystem, which likely played a more significant role in Berkshire Hathaway's investment decision.

儘管巴菲特堅決反對比特幣，但他的投資巨頭伯克希爾·哈撒韋公司仍持有巴西金融科技公司 Nu Holdings 的大量股份，該公司擁有自己的加密貨幣企業 Nucoin。這看似矛盾的舉動讓觀察家感到困惑，想知道巴菲特堅定不移的懷疑是否開始動搖。然而，值得注意的是，Nucoin 與 Nu Holdings 更廣泛的數位銀行生態系統緊密相連，這可能在波克夏海瑟威的投資決策中發揮了更重要的作用。

The Psychological Lure of Get-Rich-Quick Schemes

快速致富計畫的心理誘惑

Buffett acknowledges the irresistible allure of get-rich-quick schemes, recognizing that the prospect of easy wealth is deeply ingrained in human nature. He believes that the crypto craze has tapped into this primal instinct, unleashing a torrent of speculative fervor. However, Buffett cautions against the pitfalls of succumbing to the allure of quick profits, emphasizing the importance of disciplined investing based on sound principles.

巴菲特承認快速致富計畫具有不可抗拒的吸引力，並認識到輕鬆致富的前景深深植根於人性之中。他認為，加密貨幣熱潮已經利用了這種原始本能，引發了投機熱情的洪流。然而，巴菲特警告不要屈服於快速利潤的誘惑，並強調基於合理原則的紀律投資的重要性。

Concluding Remarks: A Balanced Perspective

結束語：平衡的觀點

While Warren Buffett's skepticism towards Bitcoin warrants attention, it is essential to approach his views with a nuanced understanding. His investment philosophy is tailored to his specific strengths and risk tolerance, and it may not be universally applicable to all investors. The cryptocurrency landscape is still evolving, and it remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will ultimately fulfill the lofty expectations of its proponents or succumb to the skepticism of seasoned investors like Warren Buffett.

雖然華倫·巴菲特對比特幣的懷疑值得關注，但有必要對他的觀點進行細緻入微的理解。他的投資理念是根據他的具體優勢和風險承受能力量身定制的，可能並不普遍適用於所有投資者。加密貨幣格局仍在不斷發展，比特幣最終是否會滿足其支持者的崇高期望，還是屈服於沃倫·巴菲特等經驗豐富的投資者的懷疑，還有待觀察。

Ultimately, the decision of whether or not to invest in Bitcoin is a deeply personal one, requiring careful consideration of one's financial goals, risk appetite, and long-term investment horizon. While Buffett's views provide valuable insights, they should not be the sole determinant of investment decisions. Independent research, due diligence, and a comprehensive understanding of the risks involved are paramount for navigating the complexities of the cryptocurrency market and making informed investment choices.

最終，是否投資比特幣的決定是一個非常個人的決定，需要仔細考慮一個人的財務目標、風險偏好和長期投資期限。雖然巴菲特的觀點提供了寶貴的見解，但它們不應成為投資決策的唯一決定因素。獨立研究、盡職調查以及對所涉及風險的全面了解對於應對複雜的加密貨幣市場和做出明智的投資選擇至關重要。