沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett

沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）在1998年在佛罗里达州的一间充满商务学生的教室里，日本对他作为投资者没有意义。

In 1998, at the peak of Japan’s Lost Decade, billionaire investor Warren Buffett told a classroom full of business students in Florida that the country didn’t make sense to him.

1998年，在日本损失十年的顶峰时，亿万富翁投资者沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）告诉一间充满佛罗里达大学商务专业学生的教室，该国对他没有意义。

Back then, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:) could borrow for ten years at just 1% in Japan, and all he needed to do was beat that rate to profit.

那时，伯克希尔·海瑟薇（Berkshire Hathaway）（纽约证券交易所：:)在日本只有1％的借入十年，而他所需要做的就是击败这一利率来获利。

“So far, I haven’t found anything,” Warren told them. “Japanese companies earn very low returns on equity. But as long as money is 1%, I’ll keep looking.” That was his take during Japan’s dead economy era.

“到目前为止，我还没有找到任何东西，”沃伦告诉他们。 “日本公司的股权收益很低。但是，只要钱为1％，我就会继续寻找。”那是他在日本死去的经济时代的看法。

But now in 2025, at the age of 93, the billionaire investor isn’t just looking—he’s buried deep with $23.5 billion locked in five Japanese trading giants while cutting his exposure to the United States.

但是现在在2025年，亿万富翁投资者不仅在寻找 - 他的深处被埋葬在五个日本贸易巨头，同时削减了他对美国的敞口。

The billionaire investor made those comments during Japan’s Lost Decade, when the Bank of Japan kept interest rates near zero to fight off long-term economic slowdown. Money was cheap, but Buffett wasn’t impressed. He didn’t want to deal with the risk of investing in companies with weak earnings.

亿万富翁投资者在日本损失的十年中发表了这些评论，当时日本银行将利率接近零以抵抗长期经济放缓。钱很便宜，但巴菲特并没有留下深刻的印象。他不想应对收入较弱的公司投资的风险。

And he wasn’t ready to hedge currency or gamble on the yen. His investment style followed Benjamin Graham’s “margin of safety” idea. For him, it wasn’t about how cheap the loans were—it was about how bad the returns were.

而且他还没有准备好对冲货币或日元上赌博。他的投资风格遵循本杰明·格雷厄姆（Benjamin Graham）的“安全水平”想法。对他来说，这并不是关于贷款的便宜，而是关于回报有多糟糕。

“If you’re in a lousy business for a long time, you’re going to get a lousy result,” Buffett said later that day. For him, the math didn’t work in Japan.

巴菲特当天晚些时候说：“如果您长期从事糟糕的业务，您将获得糟糕的结果。”对他来说，数学在日本没有工作。

Fast forward to today, and Buffett has done a full 180. This year, Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:) reported that it now owns nearly 10% in each of five Japanese trading firms—Itochu, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Mitsui, and Sumitomo.

快进到今天，巴菲特已经完成了整个180。

That level of ownership in a foreign country is rare for Buffett, but it shows where he’s placing his bet now. Buffett first began buying into these trading houses in 2019, but the world found out in 2020—on Buffett’s 90th birthday.

对于巴菲特来说，在一个国外的所有权水平很少，但它表明他现在下注的位置。巴菲特于2019年首次开始购买这些交易房，但全世界于2020年发现了巴菲特诞辰90周年。

He picked the firms because they act like diversified machines, touching sectors from energy and shipping to retail and food. In other words, they look a lot like Berkshire itself. What drew him in? Reliable dividends, strong cash flow, and tight spending.

他之所以选择这些公司，是因为它们像多元化的机器一样，从能源和运输到零售和食物的领域。换句话说，它们看起来很像伯克希尔本身。是什么吸引了他？可靠的股息，强劲的现金流量和紧张的支出。

And the same low rates that turned him off in 1998 are now helping him lock in profits. Buffett financed the move by selling yen-denominated debt—cheap loans in Japan’s weak currency—and used the money to buy companies paying solid returns.

现在，1998年将他拒之门外的低比率正在帮助他锁定利润。巴菲特通过出售日元计时的债务（日本薄弱的货币贷款），并利用这笔钱购买了支付可靠的收益的公司来资助这一举动。

In 2024, Buffett wrote to shareholders that he’d gotten permission from the five companies to go past Japan’s usual 10% ceiling, something few foreign investors are allowed to do. At the end of the year, the total value of his holdings in the five firms was $23.5 billion, and he had only paid $13.8 billion for them.

巴菲特在2024年写信给股东，他获得了五家公司的许可，以超过日本通常的10％上限，这是允许外国投资者做的。到年底，他在五家公司的股份总价值为235亿美元，他只为他们支付了138亿美元。

That’s a profit of nearly $10 billion, straight off the playbook Buffett used to run in the U.S. But he wasn’t wrong to be cautious before. Currency risk is still a threat. The carry trade—borrowing cheap yen and investing it elsewhere—has collapsed before.

这是一笔近100亿美元的利润，直接从曾经在美国运行的剧本巴菲特（Buffett）出发，但他以前并没有谨慎。货币风险仍然是威胁。货运贸易（借入便宜的日元并在其他地方投资）之前已经崩溃了。

Between 2022 and 2023, U.S. Treasury yields spiked, the yen surged, and investors panicked. That sudden wave caused serious losses across Asian stock markets and currencies.

在2022年至2023年之间，美国财政部产生了飙升，日元飙升，投资者惊慌失措。突然的浪潮在亚洲股市和货币上造成了严重的损失。

Now, the Bank of Japan has even more pressure. Inflation expectations in Japan jumped again over the last three months. A BOJ survey released on Friday showed 86.7% of households now believe prices will go up in the next year.

现在，日本银行的压力更大。在过去的三个月中，日本的通货膨胀期望再次跃升。周五发布的BOJ调查显示，现在有86.7％的家庭认为价格将在明年上涨。

That’s the highest number since June 2024, and up from 85.7% in December. The same data showed Japanese companies are finally raising wages and prices—two things the central bank has been trying to trigger for years.

这是自2024年6月以来的最高数字，而12月的85.7％。同样的数据表明，日本公司终于提高了工资和价格 - 央行多年来一直试图触发的两种事情。

The BOJ had been leaning toward raising rates. All the signs are there. Wages are up. Prices are climbing. And inflation expectations keep pushing higher. That’s the kind of thing that normally leads to hikes.

棚屋一直倾向于提高利率。所有的迹象都在那里。工资上升。价格正在攀升。通货膨胀期望不断提高。那是通常导致远足的事情。

But for now, interest rates in Japan are still low. And Buffett’s still collecting dividends off debt that costs next to nothing. He passed on Japan once. But this time, he’s not walking away.

但是目前，日本的利率仍然很低。巴菲特仍在收集股息，这几乎一无所有。他曾经在日本过世。但是这次，他不是走开。