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比特币打破了 9 月份暴跌的预期,以 8% 的强劲涨幅结束了这个月,并为许多人预期的强劲“Uptober”奠定了基础。
Bitcoin concluded September with a gain of 8%, setting the stage for what many anticipated would be a strong “Uptober.” Historically, October has favored Bitcoin’s price, which fueled optimism for a continued rally.
比特币在 9 月份结束时上涨了 8%,为许多人预期的强劲“Uptober”奠定了基础。从历史上看,十月对比特币的价格有利,这激发了人们对比特币持续上涨的乐观情绪。
However, escalating tensions in the Middle East, sparked by an Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel, quickly shifted market sentiment. Bitcoin fell to a two-week low as investors sought refuge in gold, undermining the narrative that BTC is a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises.
然而,伊朗导弹和无人机袭击以色列引发的中东紧张局势不断升级,迅速改变了市场情绪。由于投资者寻求黄金避难,比特币跌至两周低点,削弱了比特币在地缘政治危机期间作为避险资产的说法。
Uptober Expectations Dashed
过高的期望落空
Many Bitcoiners expected October to continue September’s momentum, but stirring Middle East tensions have postponed “Uptober.” On October 1, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $60,300, while gold surged to $2,673 per ounce as markets reacted to the missile attack.
许多比特币爱好者预计 10 月将延续 9 月的势头,但中东紧张局势加剧推迟了“Uptober”。 10 月 1 日,随着市场对导弹袭击做出反应,比特币跌至 60,300 美元的盘中低点,而黄金价格飙升至每盎司 2,673 美元。
This divergence was highlighted by Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund founder Jeroen Blokland, who charted the contrasting price movements of Bitcoin and gold following the outbreak of hostilities. His analysis suggested that investors shifted from BTC to gold in response to the crisis.
Blokland Smart 多资产基金创始人 Jeroen Blokland 强调了这种差异,他绘制了敌对行动爆发后比特币和黄金的对比价格走势图。他的分析表明,为了应对危机,投资者从比特币转向黄金。
While Bitcoin is often touted as an uncorrelated asset, the Coin Bureau X account questioned whether this narrative holds up in light of the recent sell-off triggered by the latest flaring of Iran-Israel tensions.
虽然比特币经常被吹捧为一种不相关的资产,但 Coin Bureau X 的帐户质疑这种说法是否成立,因为最近伊朗和以色列紧张局势加剧引发了抛售。
Bitcoin Believers Unfazed
比特币信徒并不担心
Despite the market behavior on Monday suggesting that Bitcoin is not a reliable geopolitical hedge, Bitcoiners were quick to defend it. JAN3 founder Samson Mow criticized the decision to sell BTC for “paper gold,” arguing that Bitcoin’s portability makes it a better bet in the event of war.
尽管周一的市场行为表明比特币不是可靠的地缘政治对冲工具,但比特币支持者很快就为其辩护。 JAN3 创始人 Samson Mow 批评了将 BTC 出售为“纸黄金”的决定,认为比特币的便携性使其成为战争时更好的选择。
Influencer “moneyordebt ∞/21M” reinforced this sentiment, stating, “Gold is a short-term risk hedge; Bitcoin is the long-term risk hedge.” This claim was supported by a BTC-gold ratio chart, which showed that over time, less BTC is needed to buy an ounce of gold.
影响者“moneyordebt ∞/21M”强化了这种观点,并指出,“黄金是一种短期风险对冲;比特币是长期风险对冲工具。”这一说法得到了比特币与黄金比率图表的支持,该图表显示,随着时间的推移,购买一盎司黄金所需的比特币会减少。
Economist Alex Krüger also tempered Uptober expectations, noting that 2024 is a US election year, a period of historically high volatility. He pointed out that this uncertainty has often led to turbulent Octobers for the S&P 500, which could spill over into Bitcoin.
经济学家 Alex Krüger 也调低了 Uptober 的预期,指出 2024 年是美国大选年,是历史上波动性最高的时期。他指出,这种不确定性常常导致标准普尔 500 指数在 10 月份出现动荡,这可能会波及比特币。
However, despite the correlation some draw between Bitcoin and stocks, BTC surged 27.7% in October 2020, the last US election year, showing that political uncertainty does not always dampen BTC’s price performance.
然而,尽管比特币和股票之间存在一定的相关性,但比特币在美国最后一个大选年 2020 年 10 月飙升了 27.7%,这表明政治不确定性并不总是会抑制比特币的价格表现。
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