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比特幣打破了 9 月暴跌的預期,以 8% 的強勁漲幅結束了這個月,並為許多人預期的強勁「Uptober」奠定了基礎。
Bitcoin concluded September with a gain of 8%, setting the stage for what many anticipated would be a strong “Uptober.” Historically, October has favored Bitcoin’s price, which fueled optimism for a continued rally.
比特幣在 9 月結束時上漲了 8%,為許多人預期的強勁「Uptober」奠定了基礎。從歷史上看,十月對比特幣的價格有利,這激發了人們對比特幣持續上漲的樂觀情緒。
However, escalating tensions in the Middle East, sparked by an Iranian missile and drone attack on Israel, quickly shifted market sentiment. Bitcoin fell to a two-week low as investors sought refuge in gold, undermining the narrative that BTC is a safe-haven asset during geopolitical crises.
然而,伊朗飛彈和無人機襲擊以色列引發的中東緊張局勢不斷升級,迅速改變了市場情緒。由於投資者尋求黃金避難,比特幣跌至兩週低點,削弱了比特幣在地緣政治危機期間作為避險資產的說法。
Uptober Expectations Dashed
過高的期望落空
Many Bitcoiners expected October to continue September’s momentum, but stirring Middle East tensions have postponed “Uptober.” On October 1, Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $60,300, while gold surged to $2,673 per ounce as markets reacted to the missile attack.
許多比特幣愛好者預計 10 月將延續 9 月的勢頭,但中東緊張局勢加劇推遲了「Uptober」。 10 月 1 日,隨著市場對飛彈襲擊做出反應,比特幣跌至 60,300 美元的盤中低點,而黃金價格飆升至每盎司 2,673 美元。
This divergence was highlighted by Blokland Smart Multi-Asset Fund founder Jeroen Blokland, who charted the contrasting price movements of Bitcoin and gold following the outbreak of hostilities. His analysis suggested that investors shifted from BTC to gold in response to the crisis.
Blokland Smart 多資產基金創辦人 Jeroen Blokland 強調了這種差異,他繪製了敵對行動爆發後比特幣和黃金的比較價格走勢圖。他的分析表明,為了應對危機,投資者從比特幣轉向黃金。
While Bitcoin is often touted as an uncorrelated asset, the Coin Bureau X account questioned whether this narrative holds up in light of the recent sell-off triggered by the latest flaring of Iran-Israel tensions.
雖然比特幣經常被吹捧為一種不相關的資產,但 Coin Bureau X 的帳戶質疑這種說法是否成立,因為最近伊朗和以色列緊張局勢加劇引發了拋售。
Bitcoin Believers Unfazed
比特幣信徒不擔心
Despite the market behavior on Monday suggesting that Bitcoin is not a reliable geopolitical hedge, Bitcoiners were quick to defend it. JAN3 founder Samson Mow criticized the decision to sell BTC for “paper gold,” arguing that Bitcoin’s portability makes it a better bet in the event of war.
儘管週一的市場行為表明比特幣不是可靠的地緣政治對沖工具,但比特幣支持者很快就為其辯護。 JAN3 創始人 Samson Mow 批評了將 BTC 出售為「紙黃金」的決定,認為比特幣的便攜性使其成為戰爭時更好的選擇。
Influencer “moneyordebt ∞/21M” reinforced this sentiment, stating, “Gold is a short-term risk hedge; Bitcoin is the long-term risk hedge.” This claim was supported by a BTC-gold ratio chart, which showed that over time, less BTC is needed to buy an ounce of gold.
影響者「moneyordebt ∞/21M」強化了這種觀點,並指出,「黃金是一種短期風險對沖;比特幣是長期風險對沖工具。這一說法得到了比特幣與黃金比率圖表的支持,該圖表顯示,隨著時間的推移,購買一盎司黃金所需的比特幣會減少。
Economist Alex Krüger also tempered Uptober expectations, noting that 2024 is a US election year, a period of historically high volatility. He pointed out that this uncertainty has often led to turbulent Octobers for the S&P 500, which could spill over into Bitcoin.
經濟學家 Alex Krüger 也調低了 Uptober 的預期,指出 2024 年是美國大選年,是史上波動性最高的時期。他指出,這種不確定性常常導致標準普爾 500 指數在 10 月出現動盪,這可能會波及比特幣。
However, despite the correlation some draw between Bitcoin and stocks, BTC surged 27.7% in October 2020, the last US election year, showing that political uncertainty does not always dampen BTC’s price performance.
然而,儘管比特幣和股票之間存在一定的相關性,但比特幣在美國最後一個大選年2020 年10 月飆升了27.7%,這表明政治不確定性並不總是會抑制比特幣的價格表現。
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